The New England Patriots‘ outlook centers around the fantasy football value of Ezekiel Elliott, while the Buffalo Bills‘ fantasy preview dives into the nose-diving value of Stefon Diggs and others. Who should you be trusting in your starting lineup out of this matchup in Week 17?
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -12
- Total: 40.5
- Patriots implied points: 19.3
- Bills implied points: 31.3
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen: While Allen has yet to throw multiple touchdown passes in a game this month, his fantasy production has been as safe as any thanks to six rushing scores over his past four games (since late September, he has as many games with multiple rushing scores as he does games without one).
In his first meeting with the Patriots this season, Allen threw 41 passes — or five more than he has thrown, in total, over the past two weeks. His lack of volume through the air in recent weeks is not something I’m overly concerned about, though given the spread in this game, it’s tough to deny that another sub-30 pass-attempt game is certainly possible.
Is Allen a perfect quarterback? No. Is he someone I’m comfortable in rolling out there during my fantasy Super Bowl? Without a doubt. In fact, I’m in that expect spot in a home league — let’s go #BillsMafia!
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson: New England’s top back has missed three straight games (ankle), and the likelihood of his 2023 season being over increases by the day.
The 25-year-old is under contract for another season, giving the Patriots very little motivation to extend him down the stretch of this lost season.
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Stevenson’s stock will be one to watch intently this offseason. On one hand, he’s one year removed from a season in which he averaged 5.0 ypc and caught 69 passes. On the other, the limitations of this roster tanked Stevenson’s efficiency (4.0 ypc) and saw his target count take a step backward.
If New England’s offense can provide us with a reason for optimism (be it in the final few weeks this season or with offseason moves), the shine being off of Stevenson’s 2022 breakout could make him a nice value come draft season.
Ezekiel Elliott: The veteran hasn’t had a 15-yard carry since October, and yet, he’s producing at such a level that I’m locking him in as a strong RB2 and not really thinking twice about it.
Zeke has seen 30 targets over the past four weeks, a nice complement to his featured role on the ground. Not one of his rush attempts is likely to jump off the screen at you, but in an offense void of playmakers in a spot where they’re going to have to score to keep up, it’s impossible to overlook the sheer volume that Elliott projects for.
These Patriots games are CYE games. Cover Your Eyes. They aren’t a work of art, but given how they function these days, New England’s offense hinges on the chain-moving stylings of Elliott, and that should be comforting for fantasy managers.
James Cook: In what looked like a perfect matchup on paper, Cook disappointed in Week 16 against the Chargers (20 touches, 5.0 fantasy points), but that doesn’t undo the good he had done in the four games prior (average finish: RB8, per the Week 17 Cheat Sheet).
In fact, that’s the exact spot he finished in the RB ranks back in Week 7 against these Patriots. New England’s defense is pretty clearly the strength of their roster, but that doesn’t mean they can slow Cook.
I have Buffalo’s budding star ranked as an RB1 and have no real concerns about him this week in the final week of most fantasy leagues.
Wide Receivers
DeMario Douglas: New England’s only semi-reliable option in the pass game has caught at least five passes in five of six games. And with a 30-yard grab in two of his past four, there’s a little more per-target upside in this profile than meets the eye.
Of course, Douglas hasn’t scored this season, and that caps his upside. But if you’re in a multi-Flex PPR league with a strong roster, I could see adding the 8-12-point expectation that the rookie offers and feeling good about your star players dictating how your matchup ultimately finishes.
Stefon Diggs: If you’re still fighting for a fantasy title with Diggs on your roster, more power to you!
Buffalo’s star receiver has made a play here and there over the past month and a half, but he hasn’t shown us the ceiling or floor that he showcased through the first month.
If you asked me in September if I thought I’d have Diggs ranked closer to WR1 or closer to WR30, I would have laughed in your face. Now, it’s not a question, and the latter is pretty clearly the right answer.
MORE: Tate’s Week 17 Waiver Wire Rankings
I’m still plugging Diggs in as a low-end option, but it’s mainly because the Patriots own the best per-carry run defense in the league, and I think Buffalo could be one-dimensional in this spot.
If that’s the case, I’ll take my chances on a WR who has seen double-digit targets eight times this season. But there’s no denying that the one-time elite option is not to be considered anything close to that as we near the end of the season.
Gabe Davis: Not all heroes wear capes, and not all numbers pan out. Davis was a non-cape-wearing, statistical-trend supporting hero on Saturday night in Los Angeles by picking apart the Chargers to the tune of 130 yards and a score.
Of course, the only thing worse than missing the boat on a good Davis week is chasing it into the ground the following week, so be careful (six yards on five targets in the first meeting with the Patriots this season).
That said, the Patriots’ pressure rate dipped below the arbitrary 20% threshold I used last week to drive the Davis love. If you were forced into a spot where you had to play him, you probably advanced, and there are numbers to support the idea that consecutive strong weeks aren’t out of the question.
Davis is a top-40 receiver for me that I could see playing over Drake London and Jakobi Meyers. Heck, based on the matchup and recent trends, taking a shot on Davis over Terry McLaurin isn’t the craziest idea if you feel you’re swimming upstream in your specific matchup!
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry: A knee injury cost Henry Week 16 and likely resulted in him being cut loose by fantasy managers experiencing a roster crunch where rostering multiple TEs isn’t optimal.
Don’t sweat it.
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While he has scored three times in his past two games, Henry hasn’t caught more than three passes in seven of his past nine games and plays for an offense that rarely threatens paydirt.
There are at least three widely available TE streamers, and I list them all within the T.J. Hockenson write-up at the very bottom of this article. To me, they all offer a low floor that is similar to Henry’s, but with a more clear path to reasonable success than New England’s banged-up option.
Dalton Kincaid: I’m holding onto Kincaid, but it’s more based on how I see Buffalo’s offense functioning this week than it is any remaining confidence in him as a difference-maker.
Kincaid has turned four targets into just seven yards over the past two weeks and hasn’t reached 50 yards or scored in well over a month. I stand by his role as the second-most consistent target earner in this offense, but with Dawson Knox back in the mix and Cook’s development, Kincaid’s slice of the pie is getting smaller.
The pie itself has been shrinking of late as well.
He’s not bulletproof, but Kincaid’s pretty clearly ahead of the options on your wire, so you’re rolling with him and trusting the pass-oriented Bills to get their uber-talented rookie some more looks.
Trending Start/Sit Searches
Did you know that we have a Start/Sit Optimizer here at Pro Football Network?! It’s completely free to use, and it allows you to enter up to six players to find the best option to plug into your starting lineup!
It also allows us to see the most popular trending searches, and we’ve jotted some of them down here to help provide some clarity on!
Should You Start Ezekiel Elliott or Derrick Henry?
I fear that Derrick Henry could be a version of Elliott in short order, and that’s scary. I’m not confident that either of these backs is efficient with their touches, but the role in the passing game for Elliott is a stabilizing force that Henry doesn’t get the benefit of, unfortunately.
Both of these players are RB2s that can be played, but I’m plugging in Elliott with slightly more confidence.
Should You Start Gabe Davis or Noah Brown?
I have Davis ranked a touch higher, preferring the low-pressure opponent and healthy quarterback. It’s a close call and a head-to-head situation that carries a wide range of outcomes, but the support around Davis is stronger, and that’s what I’d rather bet on at this point in the season.
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