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    Trail Blazers vs. Hornets Prediction: The Perfect LaMelo Ball Same Game Parlay Spot If Active

    Kyle Soppe
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    Trail Blazers vs. Hornets Prediction: The Perfect LaMelo Ball Same Game Parlay Spot If Active
    Feb 20, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball (1) warms up before the game against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

    Betting on professional sports relies as much on your ability to evaluate individual matchups as much as anything and this Trail Blazers vs. Hornets game has some very easy dots to connect as we look to build up a nest egg prior to March Madness.

    I’m going to have individual exposure for all of the mentioned props, but I’ll also be putting them all together – I want to get paid out in a significant way if the math plays out as clean as it seems is likely.

    Trail Blazers vs. Hornets Best Bets

    LaMelo Ball is nursing an ankle injury and that’s the first thing to keep an eye on as today progresses. The ailment didn’t stop him from playing 33 minutes in an upset win in Los Angeles against the Lakers on Wednesday, but it nagged at him enough to sit out the second night of a back-to-back against the Nuggets.

    I’m of the belief that he’s on a management plan for a team that is going nowhere, but with two straight days off, I expect him to be a full go tonight (what that means for his status on an upcoming Monday-Tuesday back-to-back is TBD, but that’s not impacting how I’m betting today).

    • Wednesday: 33 minutes, 27 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists
    • Season averages: 32.7 minutes, 27.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists

    Taking standard usage for granted, this profiles as the most predictable spot you could ask for. Ball is the ball-handler in 10.5 pick-and-rolls per game this season, a number that trails only Trae Young and Cade Cunningham this season – a good spot to be against the defense that allows the ball-handler to score on a league-high 44.6% of pick-and-roll situations (no other defense owns a rate north of 42.6%).

    The meter figures to be rolling with regularity against the seventh worst defense in the NBA, but I’m more intrigued by how those points are put on the board. Portland allows 16% of opponent points to be scored from the free throw line (fourth highest rate), a stat that might seem useless at first blush, but stick with me for a minute.

    In games against teams that rank top-10 in that stat, Ball takes 53.8% of his shots from inside the arc, a rate that sits at 44% against all other teams. You can use that to fade his 3PM prop if you’d like, but I’m electing to read it as an elevator for his point projection – his 2P% this season is higher than his career rate and given that Portland struggles to defend pick-and-roll penetrating, great looks in that 4-10 foot range figure to be there whenever Ball wants them.

    Let’s take it a step further.

    Normally, I’d be inclined to regress FTA numbers for road players, understanding that home teams traditionally get the favorable side of the whistle, but Ball has been something of an anomaly this season.

    LaMelo Ball Free Throw Splits

    • Home: 1 FTM for every 2.9 FGM
    • Road: 1 FTM for every 1.7 FGM

    Let’s keep going.

    If Ball (and his teammates) are living at the line, the assist count has to be regressed – not because Charlotte can’t score a ton of points, but because free throws, obviously, aren’t assisted on.

    But wait, there’s more.

    Ball’s assist percentage over his past 12 games (37.1%) is down in a major way from his first 22 this season (46.2%), something that is the result of both his increased offensive aggression and the loss of Brandon Miller for the season.

    Combine that with the fact that the Blazers are an above-average defense in terms of opponent assist rate and transition efficiency – I don’t think we get many “easy” dimes. This isn’t a particularly great shooting team (Miles Bridges is next in line to Ball in terms of three-point volume and he’s making just 31.5% of his attempts from distance this season) and with Donovan Clingan protecting the paint, asking Mark Williams (76.7% of his shots come without a single dribble) to scoring in volume around the rim is dicey at best.

    If you wager 1.25 units on all three props and 0.5 on the SGP, you put yourself in a position where hitting two bets would net a minor profit while you open up the door for a huge day should Ball’s production fall in line with where the trends point.

    Pick: LaMelo Ball over 26.5 points (-102, FanDuel)
    Pick: LaMelo Ball under 3.5 3PM (+114, DraftKings)
    Pick: LaMelo Ball under 6.5 assists (+114, both FanDuel and DraftKings)
    SGP: All three picks together (+1700, DraftKings)

    Also … don’t you dare let us get hot going into March!

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