For the second time in two nights and the third time in four games, we have a Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma Thunder game begging for us to bet. We’ve seen these playoff teams split the previous two meetings, setting us up for an interesting rubber match tonight in Oklahoma City.
Minnesota covered the spread last night at home by a point – the oddsmakers have added four points to the number tonight as we switch locations. I’m going to refuse to take the bait and bet on either team in this spot, instead opting to target a plus-money prop.
NBA Pick for February 24
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Best Bet
The ‘Wolves are hurting and that is what made their ability to stay within touch last night impressive. Donte DiVincenzo, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert all sat out last night, and while there is some hope that they are trending in the right direction, I’m not overly optimistic that we get a fully extended version of any of them if they can dress.
That obviously hurts Minnesota’s ability to compete against arguably the best team in the sport for 48 minutes, but I’m not worried about that – I’ll embrace the narrow rotation and be on my way.
Naz Reid pull-up 3 pic.twitter.com/MUR73tek7R
— Timberwolves Clips (@WolvesClips) February 24, 2025
Naz Reid played 40 minutes last night. I’d love to pencil in some rest, if his teammates remain banged up, it’s not coming. In February, he’s giving us 34.9 minutes per game, a run that includes a pair of back-to-backs where he cleared 35 minutes on the second night twice.
I don’t think it’s crazy to assume another 35 minutes and 16-18 shot attempts (half coming from distance) are coming, a usage pattern that I’m happy to back in a very specific way. What other choices do they have? Minnesota’s bench had a cumulative -41 plus/minus in a seven-point loss last night and they were -13 points in the eight minutes that Reid was on the pine.
He’s simply a tough matchup for a Thunder frontcourt that thrives closer to the rim and a backcourt that is going to pay Anthony Edwards the level of attention he deserves. Reid has reached 22 points in four straight games and seven of his past nine – get there tonight and we are sitting pretty on all fronts.
Reid has evolved into Minnesota’s Robin to Edwards’ Batman, a role that Jalen Williams has been in for the Thunder next to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for a while now. Williams is a very good player, but his team doesn’t require him to be as impactful consistently the way the Wolves do with Reid.
Williams Shots Per Minute
- December: 0.56
- January: 0.50
- February: 0.49
That may be a minor trend, but in a game with a one-sided spread where his minutes could be held in check (eight games in 13 days starting on Wednesday, including four games in four cities in six days) to a degree, something I don’t fear with Reid given the lack of reinforcements in Minnesota.
That’s not to say that I think Williams struggles (his 3P% has increased in consecutive months and his floor has proven to be 16 points of late). But I think his usage has more downward trajectory in this spot while Reid’s has more upward mobility.
In addition to a slight advantage in sheer volume, the math on Reid’s looks trumps Williams’. The Thunder allow opponents to chuck up triples on a league-high 44.9% of their attempts, a far cry from where the ‘Wolves sit (40.9%, eighth lowest).
There are a few ways to play this, including building in a minor hedge while opening yourself to sweeping the board.
Pick: Naz Reid to outscore Jalen Williams (+130, DraftKings)
Pick: Naz Reid and Jalen Williams to combine for over 37.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
