If we weren’t getting the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Boston Celtics, a matchup featuring Anthony Edwards and Nikola Jokić would be a must-watch. This Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets showdown could be a playoff preview—but who holds the edge in the middle of March?
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Best Bets
If the Wolves are going to pull off the minor upset, they’ll need to dictate terms. That means slowing the pace (they rank 25th in tempo this season, while Denver is fifth) and leaning into their best matchup advantages.
Anthony Edwards is great, and he’ll have the ball plenty, but the players who have my attention are Naz Reid and Julius Randle. Rudy Gobert (back, questionable) has played just one game this month, and even if he suits up, Minnesota could opt to give Reid extended minutes to put pressure on Jokić defensively.
Let’s assume I’m right. If this turns into a Reid game—he’s logged 33-plus minutes in all four games this month without Gobert and still got up 15 shots in 27 minutes on Sunday alongside him—his role in the offense seems secure.
I’m not a huge fan of Randle’s game, but he’s been productive in two meetings with Denver this season, totaling 44 points on 51.5% shooting with 13 rebounds and 14 assists. Maybe there’s something schematically that allows Minnesota to funnel the offense through him more in this matchup.
That’s already a lot of usage, especially for a game Minnesota wants to slow down. It’s also a lot of size-adjusted shooting—Edwards, Reid, and Randle are averaging 21.6 combined three-point attempts per game in March.
So where does Donte DiVincenzo fit in? He’s been on a heater lately, but Denver is the NBA’s 10th-best team at running shooters off the three-point line. That’s a problem for him because 80.6% of his shots since late February have come from deep.
In March, he has just six free throw attempts in 140 minutes—another sign that he’s not attacking the rim or being asked to. That limits not just his scoring upside but also his ability to rack up assists and rebounds. There are only so many long boards to grab, especially if Minnesota isn’t getting off as many threes as usual.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been playing well (Denver is +19.9 per 48 minutes with him on the floor this month), and there’s a good chance he steals some minutes from DiVincenzo thanks to his defensive versatility.
I’m leaning into that thought process, especially because Alexander-Walker is a tougher matchup for the red-hot Jamal Murray—who also happens to be the focus of my other prop angle.
Murray is playing fantastic basketball right now, and the Nuggets need this version of him to be true contenders. Since the All-Star break, his scoring is up 14.3%, and his field goal percentage has jumped 11 points over the last 10 games.
Check out Jamal Murray's production
First 18 games: 17.9 PPG on 53.1% TS
Last 40 games: 23.2 PPG on 60.7% TSFlipped the switch from some of his worst regular-season basketball ever to some of his best
— Carson Breber (@Carsobi) March 11, 2025
He looks great, but how sustainable is it?
I think the scoring metrics can hold. We’ve seen him do this before, and he’s producing without even shooting well from three (just 31% in March). He can create his own looks—and honestly, I’m about 64% sure I could get some decent shots in a Jokić-led offense, and I’ve been washed up for years.
That’s his role: Robin to Jokić’s Batman.
But what I don’t think is sustainable is his assist volume. He’s had 6+ assists in four of five games this month and six of his last eight, but I’m betting that regresses to the mean.
Potential Assist Rate, Jamal Murray
- Last five games: 27.5% of passes were potential assists
- Before that this season: 22%
- 2024 season: 22.9%
- 2023 season: 21.3%
Hot streaks happen, and we have to react—but this feels more like a heater than a permanent change. Denver has two primary table-setters (Jokić and Russell Westbrook), and Minnesota’s length is a big reason why it allows assists at the fourth-lowest rate in the NBA.
Murray could have another strong night (I hope he does—when he’s locked in, he’s a great watch), but I expect his focus to be scoring, not distributing. His recent playmaking numbers give us some value in the props market.
Pick: Donte DiVincenzo under 19.5 PRA (-110, DraftKings)
Pick: Jamal Murray under 5.5 assists (-106, FanDuel)