Is there a matchup you’d rather see than the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics? For me, the answer is no. These are the two most complete teams in the NBA right now, and they could very well meet in the final game of the season.
We’ll get into championship odds another time—right now, the focus is getting ahead of the books and profiting on what might be the most anticipated game of the regular season.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics Best Bet
With both teams well-rested, we should see a nearly full complement of stars. We know Jalen Williams (hip) is out, but every other key contributor is expected to play.
I stared at this game and the betting board for a while before admitting something to myself.
I don’t know.
And that’s OK.
Williams has played in 90.4% of Thunder games since they drafted him 12th overall. No one has a big enough sample size to confidently reassign minutes and usage with him sidelined.
So I’m not going to.
Instead, I’m leaning into trends that I believe are more organizational than player-specific. Oklahoma City has taken better care of the ball lately, posting a 9.3% turnover rate over its past 17 games—down from 10.8% before that.
More possessions for a team like this means more scoring chances. That lines up with a Boston defense that has struggled to force turnovers recently, generating them on just 10.2% of possessions over its past 16 games—down from 12.3% earlier in the season.
So yeah, losing Williams hurts, but I still expect OKC to push the tempo. If they aren’t turning the ball over much, they’ll have plenty of opportunities to score.
Chet with the spin and slam! 💪 pic.twitter.com/c6LFgdGCFg
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 9, 2025
One sneaky factor in Williams’ absence is who’s replacing him. Since his injury, Alex Caruso, Carson Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins have seen more minutes, with Isaiah Joe and Jaylin Williams also getting some run.
Are any of them as good as Williams? No. As a collective? Probably not. But they’re all willing three-point shooters and can run the floor, so I’m not convinced OKC’s overall scoring output will drop significantly. The consistency might fluctuate quarter to quarter, but over a full game, I expect the offense to remain efficient—especially with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander running the show.
That’s important for a few reasons. The specialty nature of these replacements could actually help an offense that ranks dead last in fast-break efficiency. With versatile bigs and a dominant weapon in SGA, spot-up shooters hold serious value. Williams’ absence might create even more of those opportunities.
On the other side, the projection game is simple. The Thunder are a great defensive team, but they defend from the inside out. They allow opponents to take 44.6% of their shots from three-point range. That’s a viable strategy against most teams—just not against this one.
Boston’s three-point rate this season is up to 53.2%. If you’ve watched them play, that number won’t surprise you. But when you see it contextualized across this Steph Curry-influenced era, it’s eye-popping.
- The gap between Boston (No. 1 in three-point rate) and Chicago (No. 2) is 6.6 percentage points.
- The gap between Chicago and Memphis (No. 21) is also 6.6 percentage points.
The Celtics are a team of variance, but their ability to knock down threes in volume over 48 minutes is second to none. Second to none this season—and maybe in the history of the game. A few made threes could force OKC to go into attack mode, and while I’m not sure how that plays out in terms of the final score, I’m comfortable putting my money on these offenses.
Pick: Over 227.5 points (-108, DraftKings)