LeBron James is having a remarkable season and is nearing a return from his groin injury. Could he be available for this Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers showdown?
He entered the day listed as questionable and that leaves the door open, but with a game tomorrow and another back-to-back following that (a scheduling run The King literally complained about a month ago), I find it more likely than not that they manage James.
Assuming that’s the case, what do the numbers suggest is sharp action for this contest?
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers Best Bets
The Lakers have dropped four straight while the Suns have gone over six weeks without consecutive wins. Neither of these fanbases is exactly thrilled with the recent results, but I’d argue that, at this moment in time, I like the form of Phoenix slightly more and the fact they’re getting over a bucket in terms of the point spread is more than enough to have my attention.
Yes, the Suns are 31-36 this season and yes, they were 24-21 toward the end of January. That’s all true, though the recent profile should spark a little more optimism than they are being given credit for.
From a macro point of view, their 4-4 record over their past eight is better than the raw results indicate. Their losses:
- March 2 vs. Minnesota: Held a halftime lead
- March 7 at Denver: Forced overtime in the 30-20-20 Nikola Jokic game
- March 10 at Memphis: Had a shot at the buzzer for the win
- March 12 at Houston: Shot 53.4% FG against the NBA’s top defense
In a different world, they split those four games and come in riding form that catches the attention of the public, but that’s not the world in which we live and I’m perfectly OK with that!
The knock on LeBron coming into this season was his conservation of energy on the defensive end, but that hasn’t been the case. Before getting hurt, he was fully bought in on that end and it showed, as the Lakers posted a 106.5 defensive rating in his most recent 10 appearances.
Since he’s been out? No bueno. Their defensive rate has crashed to 124.3, and while that’s a small sample that includes games against Milwaukee and Denver (Brooklyn too, let’s be fair), the 10-game run before had matchups with the Nuggets, Timberwolves, Knicks, Celtics, and Clippers (twice) on it.
Interestingly enough, the offensive efficiency has remained stable thanks to a pair of double-doubles from Austin Reaves.
When it comes to the offense facing this struggling defense (if James suits up, I like this angle less, but I’m assuming that he’d be limited in that case and that’s why I don’t mind investing now, before his status is known), it’s looking a little more like what we thought could be.
- Kevin Durant in March: 51.1% on threes with 11.9 rebounds-plus-assists per game
- Devin Booker in the last four games: +19 with him on the court, -3 without
- Bradley Beal in March: 52.3% FG with nearly three assists per turnover
Highest FG% on shots between 15-19 feet this season (min. 75 attempts)
56.3 – Kevin Durant
51.1 – SGA
48.1 – Damian Lillard
48.0 – Devin Booker
47.3 – Giannis
46.9 – Jalen Brunson
46.3 – Anthony Davis
45.6 – DeMar DeRozan
45.2 – Jamal Murray
45.0 – Wemby pic.twitter.com/ZqqJXUVLaH— The Lead (@TheLeadSM) March 15, 2025
Given the star power on this roster, Phoenix just wants an invite to the playoffs and then watch the chips fall where they may. With a brutal stretch of games coming up — starting on March 21, they have a 10-game stretch that sees them play nothing but legitimate contenders — the Suns need to take advantage of coin-flip games like this, where their offense can drive the ship.
In my eyes, this is a spot game. The Lakers are the more well-rounded team with the better long-term trajectory, but we aren’t being asked to make a future bet – we are wagering on a single game that is being played today under very specific circumstances.
Pick: Suns +3.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Pick: Over 229.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
SGP: Suns moneyline with Suns over 114.5 points (+218, DraftKings)