The NBA slate isn’t packed tonight, but this Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder game has some intrigue given the upside that both of these teams have in the short and long term.
How am I attacking this interesting matchup? I’m glad you asked.
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Best Bet
On one hand, we have two of the top-three defenses in the NBA (Oklahoma City the clear top dog in the category, with Orlando and Houston flip-flopping depending on the night prior).
Both teams have the type of rangy athletes that can put opposing offenses in a bind for extended stretches. Look no further than the fact that, despite offensive-friendly game scripts for the opposition, these two squads have allowed under one point per possession on 27 occasions this season.
It’s not that simple. It’s never that simple.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the heavy favorite to win the league’s MVP award, and his “Robin” just hung 41 points on the San Antonio Spurs.
For the Rockets, Alperen Şengün (keep an eye on the status of his back) serves as a hub, while Jalen Green’s star continues to shine bright (nearly a 50-40-90 player on the road this season).
So what wins out?
On the whole, I stick to the defensive side of questions like this, but the data has me pivoting from my norm in this spot. The injury to Chet Holmgren (ankle, status TBD for tonight) weighs into that, but I’d assume that if he is ruled active, the line adjusts, and I’d still likely land on the over for this contest.
This season, both OKC and Houston have had plenty of games against elite defensive competition. It’s hardly phased them in this league that leans toward favoring offensive execution over everything.
This season, all opponents (Thunder and Rockets combined average)
- 116.3 points per 100 possessions
- 115.4 points per game
This season, vs. top 10 defenses (Thunder and Rockets combined average)
- 115.2 points per 100 possessions
- 115.2 points per game
See what I mean? Given the spots for these two teams (Houston had last night off and should be fresh after three straight home games, while Oklahoma City has both scored and allowed at least 119 points in five straight), I’m tempted to think they, at minimum, come through on those averages and put us in a spot to cash.
Dig a little bit deeper, and the pick only gains steam. The Thunder are a top-five team in cashing overs at home this season (64.3%), and their average defensive rating on the second night of their past four back-to-backs is 118.9.
I don’t think anyone needs to be sold on what OKC can do, and until they officially lock in the West’s top seed, I expect them to come out firing nightly. The Rockets are more the moving piece in this equation, but I keep coming back to their win against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Feb. 21 as a point of reference when it comes to their potential.
Green did his thing with 35 points in an analytically friendly way (13 2-point attempts, 11 3-pointers, and nine free-throw attempts). Meanwhile, Jabari Smith Jr. brought a versatile skill set (four made triples along with nine rebounds), and Amen Thompson showed true flashes of stardom (17 points on nine shots with 10 rebounds, six assists, three blocks, and zero turnovers).
I think there’s a chance we clear five points per minute in this game, and that would easily get us home. Even if that’s not the case, both offenses have the potential to run hot for singular quarters, which could be enough.
Add in the fact that I actually like the Rockets against the spread, and I don’t think overtime and/or late-game free throws are out of the question as a bail-out option.
Pick: Over 227.5 points
