They say defense wins championships. I’m not sure that holds up as much today with the way the rules are, but this Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic game features two of the top three defenses in the league. If nothing else, offense should be hard to come by.
So, how do we bet a game that’s probably going to look different from what we’re used to?
Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic Best Bet
The Magic are coming off an upset win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday and have won three of their last five games — including a win in Milwaukee 11 days ago — after dropping five straight. Things are trending up results-wise for Orlando, but I’m not sure that carries over here. Honestly, I think we’re getting a bit of a discount based on how they’ve looked lately.
Tucked into that five-game stretch was a 13-point loss to these Rockets. I’m not using that one game as the whole reason behind this pick, but Houston didn’t lose a single quarter in that matchup — despite shooting just 39.3% from the field, 61.1% from the free-throw line, and turning the ball over 11 more times than Orlando.
Small moments. Big impact.
Never stopped battling 💥 pic.twitter.com/MCD3uiZhqa
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) March 18, 2025
The fact all that happened and the result was never really in doubt says a lot about this Magic team’s limitations.
No one’s pretending Orlando is some offensive juggernaut — even with Jalen Suggs healthy, this wasn’t a team putting up 100 points through three quarters. What we did expect was consistency on defense. Lately, that hasn’t been the case:
- Games 30-39: 107.9 defensive rating
- Games 40-49: 116.4 defensive rating
- Games 50-59: 108.0 defensive rating
- Games 60-69: 116.0 defensive rating
That kind of inconsistency is a problem for a team that already struggles to score — especially against a Houston team that’s shown more offensive balance lately. A different player has led them in scoring in three straight games and in six games this month. Houston might not have a superstar, but it’s got plenty of guys who can step up when it counts.
READ MORE: March Madness First Round Betting Card
The up-and-down defense from Orlando is concerning, but if we’re being honest, it’s the offense — or lack of it — that makes most people (me included) fade them. It has failed to average 1.1 points per possession in most of their games this season. And when Houston holds teams under that mark, they’ve won 27 of 33 — with an average margin of victory of 17.1 points.
With Fred VanVleet back in the lineup — and a 124.8 offensive rating in his four games since returning — this feels like a spot where Houston comes out swinging and never looks back.
This season, the Rockets are the sixth-best first-half team, outscoring opponents by 2.5 points per game. That speaks to their ability to execute early, and I expect that to show again tonight against the league’s 23rd-ranked first-half team, which gets outscored by 2.3 points per game.
Pick: Rockets -2.5 (-114, FanDuel)
Pick: Rockets halftime/fulltime (+100, DraftKings)