The more things change, the more they stay the same? Sportsbooks are confident that they set a good line on this game over the weekend and have thus elected to run back the same handicapping of the Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic on Tuesday. We picked on it then and I see no reason not to reinvest.
Toronto Raptors vs. Orlando Magic Best Bet
Toronto was catching seven points on Sunday when these two teams matched up and despite the underdog role, they largely controlled things. The visitors won three of four quarters, were +20 points in the paint, and shot better from the field.
The 104-102 final wasn’t exactly representative of what we saw for the majority of the game – Orlando went on a 25-8 spurt to close the game and, if we are being honest, it should have been a 27-8 run that sent things to overtime.
The Raptors led the Magic by 12 with 2:53 remaining.
Orlando went on a 10-0 run; had the ball with 5 seconds left and a chance to tie or win.
Franz Wagner couldn't finish this open layup to force OT.pic.twitter.com/vwXmOmmevx
— Underdog NBA (@Underdog__NBA) March 3, 2025
As it turned out, the deserving team won and I was encouraged by the initial read we had over the weekend. The Raptors won a road game in which Franz Wagner made two-thirds of his two-point attempts before smoking the late layup and Paolo Banchero got to the free throw line 15 times, matching a career high in a loss.
When you consider how condemned the offensive output is in Orlando these days, performances like that from its two stars are about the only path to victory. Even with them playing well, this game wasn’t too competitive until the final minutes.
Wagner and Banchero aren’t ideal offensive hubs as it is, so when they lean into their one-dimensional ways, there’s very little ceiling to speak of.
On Sunday, Wagner became the first Magic player since Nikola Vucevic (Feb. 21, 2020) to have a game with 25 points, 13 two-point shots, zero turnovers, and no more than one assist. Yes, that’s an ultra-specific and cherry-picked line, but it highlights just how much of a singular focus he has right now. Despite the aggressive, downhill style of offense, he’s creating opportunities for himself and not even pretending to look elsewhere.
The Banchero profile has been lacking for a while now, and we can argue if he or the supporting cast is to blame, but in the scope of picking a winner tonight, it doesn’t matter.
- 1.23 assists per 3PA last season
- 0.85 assists per 3PA this season
Further playing into my thought as to why I think we are more likely than not to see a similar result tonight is that I’m not sold that the Raptors played all that well. They shot 31.8% from deep as a collective, lost the Scottie Barnes minutes by five points, and had to navigate significant front-court foul trouble (Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, and Orlando Robinson had 16 fouls in 76 minutes).
This isn’t as much a pro-Toronto argument as it is one that has a hard time seeing Orlando realistically control any game against any opponent.
Over the past 36 days, the Magic have covered seven points three times – home games against the Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets — two teams in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes — and a game against a shaken Sacramento Kings team following the De’Aaron Fox trade.
The Raptors aren’t world beaters by any means, but I don’t think Sunday night was a fluke. To have the spread stay the same feels a bit disrespectful in a game that I view as a low-scoring coin flip.
Pick: Raptors +7
