I don’t blame you if you didn’t have this Detroit Pistons vs. Utah Jazz game penciled in as a must watch, but there is a betting string I’m willing to pull on in what very well could be a one-sided affair.
Detroit Pistons vs. Utah Jazz Best Bet
While you’re watching the more exciting games, I’m investing in this one. You see, I find winning bets as exciting. So, if I have this evaluated correctly, it will be exciting, even if not in the traditional way that Hawks/Grizzles or Rockets/Thunder might be.
Walker Kessler took last night off (rest), and all signs point to him being ready to roll tonight. But is that anything to get excited about?
The young big man has yet to average more than eight field-goal attempts per game for a month this season, which means he relies on high levels of efficiency over volume when it comes to scoring.
No, that’s not exactly different from the norm in today’s game, but I don’t like how it fits against the surging Pistons. Over the past 10 games, Detroit has collected 54.8% of missed shots, a rate that is well up from their 10 games prior (50.6%) and a major red flag when it comes to projecting Kessler’s role as a scorer.
Rebounds are his primary source of income when it comes to touches around the bucket, and I’m buying this recent trend with the Pistons being as scrappy as anyone on the glass.
Take more of a long-term view, and you’ll notice that Detroit ranks in the top quarter of the NBA in terms of volume inside of five feet. That tracks given the rebound trajectory I just discussed. And with 80.2% of Kessler’s field-goal attempts this season coming in the restricted area (91.1% in the paint), I’m much more fearful of a floor performance than the minor ceiling that requires near perfection.
If you’re just coming around to the Pistons, I get it. After a brutal 2023-24 season and the loss of Jaden Ivey, I, like most of you, didn’t have high expectations. It’s okay to be wrong, it’s not okay to refuse to adjust.
Cade Cunningham is a bonafide star, and while that doesn’t directly impact Kessler’s output in this spot, the fact that he’s attacking the rim at a high rate increases the foul equity we have to assume for opposing bigs.
Cunningham’s free-throw attempts per game have increased each season of his career, and that doesn’t appear destined to slow down anytime soon (11 FTA against five 3-point tries over past two games).
A more direct reason to fade Kessler as a scorer tonight is the generational athleticism of Ausar Thompson and the rest of Detroit’s frontcourt. Jalen Duren already has 21 more blocks and eight fewer fouls than a season ago — development that makes him capable of shutting down any opponent for extended stretches of time as he excels at staying on the court in addition to defending his area.
Isaiah Stewart is always a bad coffee away from a fight. Oh, and he’s swatted multiple shots in seven straight despite a role that has a sub-25-minute cap.
I don’t doubt that Kessler will be active after taking last night off, but in a sneaky tough matchup and a role that doesn’t carry much upside, the math is working against Utah’s center living up to expectations as a scorer.
Pick: Walker Kessler under 11.5 points (-112, FanDuel)
