The Los Angeles Lakers are an ascending team and the Denver Nuggets caught the elite version of them over the weekend. LeBron James and Luka Doncic combined for 57 points on over 50% shooting with 19 rebounds, 12 assists, and just two turnovers in a convincing 123-100 win on Saturday night.
That’s going to happen. It’s also far less likely to happen against the Indiana Pacers.
When it comes to this Nuggets vs. Pacers game, I’m not letting the stench of that performance linger. Denver had won nine straight games (albeit against inferior competition) before that dud, and I like our chances of seeing that version of them tonight in Indiana.
NBA Pick for February 24
Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers Best Bet
The game of basketball can be ultra-complicated. In this math-dominated era, advanced schemes to open up good looks are as detailed as ever, and trying to pick apart matchups to project how clean those shot attempts are going to be can be a headache.
This isn’t that.
Not only do the Nuggets play differently than most (easily the lowest three-point rate in the league), they profile as a bully in this spot. They are a top-three rebounding team in the sport, a stat in which the Pacers rank bottom-three. There’s no need to overcomplicate things.
SEE MORE: NBA Power Rankings All-Star Break
Behind Nikola Jokić, Denver is on the short list of teams that have “most efficient offense in the NBA” potential on a nightly basis. If we are nearly assured a massive edge on the glass, I’m having a hard time seeing Indiana keep pace.
The Pacers didn’t drop a single quarter yesterday, beating down a Kawhi Leonard-less Los Angeles Clippers team. They had a 46-32 rebound edge in that convincing effort while Los Angeles took 47.1% of their shots from distance and converted just 25% of them – that doesn’t happen for Denver. The Pacers are 3-14 outright in their 17 worst rebounding games this season and we’ve seen a handful of duds from them when playing on zero rest this winter.
- Dec. 4 at BKN: 90 points (35 in the first half)
- Feb. 4 at POR: 23 points loss (never led)
- Feb. 12 at WAS: Trailed by 19
Jokić is the straw that stirs the drink in Denver and could very well win another MVP award, but how about this Jamal Murray (knee) stretch?
FILTHY HIGHLIGHTS 🏹
HBD Jamal Murray (@BeMore27) pic.twitter.com/BB14ziBAaE— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) February 23, 2025
This month, he’s averaging 25.6 points (55% FG, 49.2% 3’s, 88% FT) with nearly three assists per turnover and multiple steals in the majority of games. I’m not sure this level of play sustains, but I trust Denver’s duo far more than what Indiana has to offer.
I like Tyrese Haliburton, but consistency isn’t a strength. It brought in Pascal Siakam from Toronto with the hope that he could be something of a stabilizing force, but – yikes. He has two good games this month in terms of his three-point shot, but in all other games in February, he’s missed 19 of 21 triples.
The Pacers need to be clicking on all cylinders with their offense to succeed on most nights, let alone one against a team like Denver. I’m not confident that, on the second night of a back-to-back, they perform well tonight.
We are getting a point or two of value because of what we just saw. Indiana has two blowout wins after the All-Star break while the Nuggets were on the wrong side of weekend highlight shows.
Pick: Nuggets -5 (-112, FanDuel)
