We have the Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks in prime time, and we have you covered with a handful of savvy plays!
Basketball fans are going to be treated with a clash of titans with the Nuggets vs. Bucks game tonight. While the star players are a joy to watch, it’s two of their teammates that offer the most value when evaluating the prop bets market.
Denver Nuggets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Picks
MVP-level players doing battle always makes for interesting angles, and this game is unlikely to disappoint. While it’s tempting to invest in Nikola Jokic and/or Giannis Antetokounmpo, their numbers in the prop markets are as efficient as any game spread/total, thus making them difficult to make money on for a full season.
That, however, cannot be said for their teammates. Christian Braun has proven himself to be a valuable piece to this Denver offense and has settled into a nice role, but I’m not so sure that what he is asked to do and how the Bucks defend align well.
In this era, we see so many role players specialize in launching triples and providing spacing – that’s not the case for Braun. In February, he’s made just seven of his 26 tries from distance (26.9%), struggles that the team has been willing to swallow with him cashing in 66% of his attempts from inside the arc (62-of-94).
In theory, I don’t have a problem with a slasher, especially with so many defenses prioritizing the chasing of opponents off of the three-point line, but the Bucks are the sixth-best defense in terms of 2P% (52.6%), thus narrowing Braun’s path to production in a significant way.
One season after attempting 134 free throws in 82 games, Braun has made 133 freebies in his 57 games this year. In theory, that’s encouraging, but it’s not enough volume for me to think that he scores in bulk tonight (under five FTA in 12 of his past 15 games).
Smooth moves from Kuz. pic.twitter.com/dIJCHAyw9g
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) February 26, 2025
When Milwaukee has the ball, this shapes up to be a good spot for their newest acquisition. Kyle Kuzma has only been a pretty first name thus far with the Bucks in terms of his counting stats, but the underlying metrics are working in his favor.
In his eight games since the trade, he’s seen 39.5% of his shots come from behind the three-point line, a slight uptick from his rate with the Washington Wizards (35.2%), not a surprising trend with more rim-threatening talent around him.
His quality of look has been there from distance and that gives me confidence that his 29.3% 3P% isn’t here to stay. His drive rate has declined thus far, and as he settles into a comfort zone, I expect there aren’t many more chances to get the price that is currently hanging in the 3PM market.
If props aren’t for you or you want to have a more traditional wager, I’m on the road favorite. Both of these teams operate at a top-10 pace as a result of having All-World talents that can score in the blink of an eye.
In theory.
The Nuggets have thrived when pushing the gas down while the Bucks haven’t experienced nearly the same level of success. Denver is 19-4 in their 23 highest pace games this season with two of those losses coming against an elite Cleveland Cavaliers team. The other two? They, the third best 3P% offense in the NBA, ran ice cold from deep (11-of-52), something that happens, but isn’t something I’m ever going to project.
As for Milwaukee, they are just 9-11 in their 20 pace-up contests. Impacting that number is an underwhelming rebound rate of late (45.9% over their past six), a flaw that could cripple them tonight. Jokic and company are 17-1 in their 18 best rebounding games (3-12 in their 15 worst), a trend I see them extending tonight.
Pick: Nuggets -3 (-106, FanDuel)
FanDuel No Sweat: Christian Braun under 14.5 points, Kyle Kuzma over 1.5 3PM, Nuggets half/fulltime (+627, FanDuel)
