After a limited schedule yesterday, we have a buffet of options available to us tonight. Below is where I’ve settled for my Wednesday betting card; make sure to lock in these prices while you can and check back daily for updates as to where I stand!
NBA Picks for February 12
Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic
Hide the children.
This game could set the sport back a few decades. At the very least, it could do so when the Hornets have the rock – they are without LaMelo Ball (ankle) and lack other creative threats to put stress on this elite Magic defense.
Miles Bridges can play, I’m not taking that away from him, but his creation off the bounce isn’t going to hurt me in this spot. The 30.4% three-point shooter relies largely on the ball-handling prowess of Ball to set up the triples he does cash in. While his usage projection spikes for tonight, I expect his three-point rate to crash.
Even if my thought process is wrong there and Bridges tries to hunt threes by himself, I’m confident that Orlando, the lowest opponent three-point rate defense in the league, allows that to happen. They are also great when it comes to preventing assists (third-lowest rate), putting Bridges in a spot where he may well feel the need to put on the Superman cape.
Be my guest.
He’s flirting with career lows in efficiency this season and even his impressive box score games aren’t generating much success (Charlotte has lost three of his past four 25+ point efforts).
The Magic have had a light schedule of late (they haven’t had to travel since Thursday) and are the type of lockdown defense that can turn off your water for extended stretches. We saw them hold the Spurs to three points over the final 3:54 over the weekend and that is an offense that is far more talented than their opponent tonight.
SGP: Miles Bridges under 2.5 3PM with the Magic to lead at the half and win (-114, FanDuel)
Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls
Copy. Paste.
We cashed this ticket last night in the exact same matchup and I’m going back to the well. Here’s my Tuesday night write-up if you want the nitty gritty but the basic point is that both of these offenses offer enough of a quarter-to-quarter floor that hitting a high total like this is difficult.
Halftime: Pistons 71, Bulls 29.
This is not a misprint.
Chicago shot 12 of 52 (23.1%) in the first half and went 1-for-23 from 3-point range.
The Bulls had almost as many turnovers (10) as made field goals in the first half.
— Darnell Mayberry (@DarnellMayberry) February 12, 2025
Yes, they almost got there last night, but the Bulls had a pair of sub-20-point quarters and the Pistons finished with a 27-pointer in the blowout. There is certainly some regression to bake in with the home team – 29 points in a half doesn’t happen often – but I’d argue that there is just as much, if not more, to bank on from the Pistons.
Detroit got 58 points from the trio of Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson, and Malik Beasley. It’s not that those players can’t produce, but getting to that number on 69.7% shooting from the field feels a bit optimistic.
I don’t trust the depth of either of these teams, making a back-to-back situation grounds for some ugly basketball as we near the end of the first half of the season. There will be moments of offensive excellence in this game because Cade Cunningham is dynamic, but asking it to go both ways for sustained stretches remains something I am interested in fading.
Pick: Under 236.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz
We saw this game on Monday, Luka Doncic’s Lakers debut, and my bet lost. I thought Austin Reaves’ involvement would tank immediately and I was wrong.
Kind of.
The bet lost, but as the game wore on, we did see less of him. Sure, it was a one-sided game (132-113 final score), but after taking four shots during a 5:36 stretch in the first quarter, the off-guard took just six more for the rest of the night.
He’s a dynamic player and a strong third option, but I have my questions when it comes to his volume. In his 32 minutes on Monday night, he took 10 shots – if you tell me that is how tonight plays out, I love where I stand, even if he finished his last meeting with 22 points.
We know the three-ball can result in scoring variance. So do the Jazz. They are an undermanned team and that is why, I believe, they own the second-highest opponent three-point rate – they are essentially hoping to run hot with variance.
Reaves has been great this season, but he isn’t immune to going cold from downtown, something that carries more of a scoring floor with it now than before given the projected dip in usage. It was less than a week ago when he missed all nine of his tries from deep against the Warriors and he had a week late in January where he made just four-of-15 triples.
Utah ranks 11th in percentage of points allowed at the free throw line and the Lakers, albeit in a tiny sample, posted their 10th-lowest free throw rate game of the season on Monday. I think there are far more outs to a win than there are to a loss in doubling down on a Reaves fade. That is why I’m going back to the well.
Pick: Austin Reaves under 19.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
Pick: Austin Reaves under 28.5 PRA (-106, FanDuel)
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers
The Grizzlies played last night while the Clippers have had each of the past three days off, a scheduling quirk that has me interested in backing the home team.
The rest situation along with the team playing tomorrow as their final game before the All-Star Break makes this as good a spot as any to see just how much usage they can put on the plate of Kawhi Leonard with the understanding that he has as much time as ever to recover should he need it.
I’m in.
He’s shown some rust, but the fact that he’s been a 45.8% three-point shooter over his past six games is encouraging, and I like how this team is built around him. Beyond that, we have two of the top six defensive teams squaring off and a total that suggests we are going to see roughly five points scored per minute of game action.
I understand the tempo at which Memphis plays, but could that not be slowed a bit after playing in Phoenix last night, a game that was within four points with under 100 seconds remaining?
The Clippers have seen their pace decline by over 2% since early January, and with Leonard’s versatility on the wing, it stands to reason that they can mitigate what the visitors want to do (LAC: fifth-best transition defense this season and that’s with Leonard appearing in under 27% of their games).
These are two teams that very much have my attention in the futures market, but for tonight, only one team will be getting my financial support.
Pick: Under 237.5 (-108, DraftKings)
SGP: Clippers ML with Grizzlies under 116.5 points (+132, DraftKings)
