After a full schedule, we are left with just four games to analyze tonight – but that is no excuse to not grind out some value. Below is where I’ve settled for my Tuesday betting card; make sure to lock in these prices while you can and check back daily for updates as to where I stand!
NBA Picks for February 11
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
I’m operating under the assumption that the books are — that Joel Embiid will be active for this contest. Not only did Philadelphia have last night off, but this is their last home game before the All-Star Break. It’s very easy to connect the dots and call this his last game until the TNT showcase game against the Boston Celtics next Thursday.
In Embiid’s three games back, he’s been everything we could ask for, averaging 26.3 points, 10 rebounds and 7.3 assists. He’s been the vintage form of himself in getting to the line 29 times in the process, something that should give the home team all they want tonight.
The Raptors have yet to face the Embiid version of these Sixers this season – in their 11 highest games (by opponent free throw rate) not against Philadelphia, they are 1-10 outright and haven’t been able to be all that competitive for 48 minutes.
It seems more likely than not that the Raptors will be battling from behind, and they’ve shown blow-out potential in similar contests. Toronto’s last seven losses have come by 9, 18, 16, six, 31, 12, and seven points. In those closer two defeats, there was a mitigating factor that I’m willing to overlook.
- Tuesday vs. New York Knicks: Trailed by 23 and caught up without threatening
- Sunday at Houston Rockets: Alperen Sengun left after three minutes (back spasms)
These recent Embiid games have featured ultra-high scoring first and third quarters when the teams are fresh and the star center is at his best. I like the home team to jump out in both halves and finish what they start.
- Tuesday vs Dallas Mavericks: 67 Q1 points and 58 Q3 points
- Friday at Detroit Pistons: 69 Q1 points and 58 Q3 points
- Sunday at Milwaukee Bucks: 79 Q1 points and 66 Q3 points
Pick: 76ers -9
Pick: 76ers to win both halves (+135, DraftKings)
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers
This number smells to me and that’s the only hesitation I have – everything else lines up optimistically for the visiting Knicks.
You do have to be aware that we are at least tracking two injuries. Josh Hart is battling a knee injury, though he is labeled as probable and usually finds himself on the court (one DNP this season and one all of last year). OG Anunoby (foot) is the player to watch as he has missed the last 1.5 weeks and could prove valuable in a game like this against a potent offense.
That said, New York hasn’t had an issue putting points on the board in his absence (over 120 in two of three missed contests from his current injury) and if that continues, I still like our position.
These two teams haven’t played since November and that means you can only draw so much from the results. I’m not so concerned about the outcomes (both teams won on their home court), but Indiana’s inability to deal with Jalen Brunson is something that has my attention (59 points on 58.3% shooting with 16 free throw attempts).
If New York’s point guard is gashing them for anything close to that level of production, we are sitting pretty given how well his supporting cast is currently playing.
- Hart: 19.3 PPG in February, shooting 62.5% on 2’s
- Mikal Bridges: 50% FG in three of his past four games, one or fewer TOs in three of four
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Career pace in 3P% and rebounds per game
The Pacers are a below-average defense in most regards and I’m looking for the Knicks to pick at that scab. New York is 8-3 outright in their 11 fastest games this season with their two losses coming in their first two uptempo contests of the season.
By getting into a track meet, they allow their edge on that side of the ball a greater chance of being evident, and given that it’s been more than two months since Indiana lost a game by fewer than six points, we can get a little creative with our betting card in this spot.
Pick: Knicks moneyline (one unit)
Pick: Knicks -5.5 (+145, DraftKings for 0.5 units)
Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls
Since Zach LaVine took his talents to Sacramento, there have been even more points scored in Chicago’s games than normal, something that the betting public and sportsbooks alike have noticed.
Time to pivot.
Yes, the point totals have been there, but it’s been the result of some fluky efficiency. In those contests, efficiency for both offenses is up. No surprise there, but with pace and turnover rates down, that efficiency is the only reason we’ve seen the scoreboard light up.
In my eyes, a defense that can’t create easy looks is a problem in these high-total games, especially for a team with a downward-trending possession count. The Pistons have been a great story this season and are, in my eyes, the better team – they’ve seen their pace and turnover rate drop over the past two weeks as well.
This game may be one-sided and that gives us an extra out: that would slow down Detroit’s pace even further late in the game.
Even if you think this thing stays tight, I think we are OK. These two teams played back on Feb. 2 and saw 246 points put on the board. Again, let’s look at how it happened, not just the final result.
- Bulls: Only 44 points on two-point shots
- Pistons: 80 points in the paint
If the Bulls are going to struggle from inside the arc and the Pistons are going to rely on a physical approach (not rare for them, they rank 19th in three-point rate this season), a low-scoring quarter or two is likely to occur.
The way games turn into shootouts in today’s NBA is with an inflated possession count, a high number of easy buckets, and/or volume from distance – I don’t think we get at least two of those in this spot. Avoiding all three is certainly possible.
In that game, Ayo Dosunmu averaged 1.6 points per FGA (season average: 1.1) and Nikola Vucevic handed out 10 assists (seven in 93 minutes since). I’m not buying that last meeting as predictive and yet, the total we have now is five points higher than what closed last week – I’m buying at this price and not apologizing.
Pick: Under 238.5 points
Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns
Only three teams have beaten the Grizzlies since Jan. 5 and I’m not sure that changes in Phoenix for the second game of the TNT doubleheader tonight.
The Suns are better than only the Bulls and Jazz in terms of turning over the opposition and if you’re allowing Memphis to get shots on goal, you’re in trouble. This season, the Grizzlies are 10-1 in their 11 best turnover rate games and the loss came way back in October — in a game that was played without Ja Morant (not to mention with current Wizard Marcus Smart starting 0-11).
We also get the pleasure of backing a well-rested team – this will be Memphis’ second game in six days – while the shallow Suns are playing their seventh in 12 days.
I’m a little skeptical about the Grizzlies being labeled as a true threat, but the current version of them is terrifying. Thus far in February, Jaren Jackson Jr. is pouring in 29.8 points per game and shooting 53.3% from distance. The jump shot might not look as clean as you’d like, but with his size and the speed in which this offense operates, he’s getting great looks, something that figures to continue.
“Jaren Jackson Jr. is starting to look like a monster… I’ll take [the Grizzlies] in a 7-game series over anybody in the West, except for OKC… They can beat Houston. They can beat Denver."
— Paul Pierce 🤔
(via @allthesmokeprod)pic.twitter.com/vb2BHmPF7P
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) February 10, 2025
Desmond Bane has scored at least 20 points and pulled down at least nine rebounds in each of his past three appearances. While Morant didn’t show well for the casual observer over the weekend against the elite defense of the Oklahoma City Thunder, the fact that he handed out seven dimes against just one turnover in 36 minutes is something I loved.
Phoenix has dropped five of seven games over the past two weeks, and you could argue that they should have lost six of seven – a Grayson Allen miracle helped earn them an overtime win against the underwhelming Jazz during this stretch.
Devin Booker is handling the heavy lifting for the Suns these days (30+ points or 7+ assists in eight of his past 10 games) and he’s great, but without much confidence in the rest of this roster, a high-possession game puts him in a tough position to carry this team.
Kevin Durant is dealing with an ankle injury while the spotty Bradley Beal (hot lately with consecutive 25-point games, making 11 of 18 shots inside the arc) is at less than full strength with a toe issue.
If you’re with me in questioning the median outcome for the Suns (not the ceiling, we know what they have the potential to do, but the projectable middle performance), you’re hopping on the Grizzlies. Memphis is, not surprisingly, 12-0 in their top 12 defensive efforts this season in terms of opponent eFG%, winning 10 of those 12 games by double figures with impressive victories over the Warriors, Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Bucks
Maybe Phoenix can “get right” over the All-Star Break and turn into the feared team they have the potential to be, but we aren’t there yet and that is why I’m stepping in front of them on the front-end of a back-to-back.
Pick: Grizzlies -4