The NBA All-Star break is a pain for fans who love the cadence of having action every day, but it does allow us time to catch our collective breath and seek long-term value by way of the futures market.
I lean toward the price on the Cleveland Cavaliers to win the title (+700), but that’s a popular market that is as efficient as any. Instead of locking in that wager, I’ve got my eye on two less traditional spots, feeling that my edge is greater in the categories that have had less sharp action invested up to this point.
Post-All-Star Break NBA Future Bets
Philadelphia 76ers
Listen, I’m aware.
The Philadelphia 76ers have spent zero seconds with a winning record this season, Paul George is getting injections just to keep him on the court, and then there’s the Joel Embiid situation that makes handicapping this team difficult from night to night, nevermind trusting them for the next seven weeks.
I get it.
But how many teams do you honestly trust in the East? The Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and New York Knicks are legitimate title threats, while the star power in Milwaukee elevates the Bucks’ floor. Indiana is far from flawless, but they enter the break on a 21-9 run that has earned them credibility.
And then who?
The Detroit Pistons are a nice story, but they largely beat lesser teams and fall short against the better ones (they are 16-21 when an underdog, a lower win rate than you’d expect given how much their results have flipped from last season). I like the Orlando Magic, but they are pacing for the lowest team 3P% since the 31-51 Minnesota Timberwolves in 2013, and that creates an awfully low floor.
My argument is that the middle of the East is awfully ordinary, and Philadelphia owns -575 odds to make the play-in tournament — why can’t they advance through that in a survive-and-advance model to earn the seventh or eighth seed?
- Magic: 10-19 on the road; season ends with 11 of 18 on the road (home games include Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, and Celtics)
- Atlanta Hawks: Sixers host them on April 11 (Atlanta is on a back-to-back while Philly is not)
- Miami Heat: Nine games in 14 days (March 2-15)
- Chicago Bulls: Three more road games than home games
- Brooklyn Nets: Five games in the next month against Boston, Cleveland, and Oklahoma City
Embiid has missed 68.5% of his games this season, and the Sixers sit 1.5 games behind the Bulls for the final spot in the play-in tournament. How much of a difference can the big man make? Well, if he’s active, you have to like their chances to show better on the rebounding front, right?
- Philadelphia is 9-3 this season in their top 12 rebound-rate games
If he’s active, you have to like their chances to play competitive games, right?
- Philadelphia has won six of nine games decided by 10 or fewer points when their star center is active compared to six of 22 when he sits
We are aware of the plan for Embiid when it comes to health, and that’s to sit him on back-to-backs and pray. I can’t help you with the second part of that equation, but the first part might not be as impactful coming home this regular season as you’re thinking.
The rest of the way, the 76ers have five back-to-backs remaining on their schedule, but four of them feature a highly winnable game that Philadelphia should be able to compete in, even without Embiid dressing (Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz, New Orleans Pelicans, and Toronto Raptors).
They are 2-8 on the second legs of back-to-backs this season (only the Phoenix Suns, Pelicans, and Washington Wizards have been worse), but I think the schedule lines up for them to be closer to .500 the rest of the way in those spots (2-3 or 3-2 would be a step in the right direction); that’s driving my cautious optimism.
The Danny Green deal from years ago involved sending their first-round pick this summer to the Oklahoma City Thunder, giving this team no reason to throw in the towel early, even if things begin to look bleak.
With Cooper Flagg positioned as the lottery prize, they could benefit from a lack of motivation from some teams down the stretch, giving us one more out to at least get into the play-in tournament and thus give us a chance to cash this ticket.
Pick: 76ers to make the playoffs (+300, FanDuel)
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is pacing for 46-47 wins, and that makes its win projection a logical one, but not all schedules are created equal. I think this is an example of the books being a little lazy in assigning numbers in a market that isn’t as popular as others.
I’m not complaining.
TYRESE HALIBURTON TO… TYRESE HALIBURTON!!
GORGEOUS OFF-THE-WINDOW SELF-ASSIST 🪟 pic.twitter.com/lRKX1e2eQG
— NBA (@NBA) January 30, 2025
The Indiana Pacers’ remaining schedule features 18 home games against 11 on the road, one of the more favorable in that regard the rest of the way. They currently sit as the fourth seed in the East.
While they aren’t much of a threat to crack the top three, that No. 4 spot is one they will be motivated to hold as it gives them home-court advantage in the first round (currently that would come against a Milwaukee Bucks team that is 17-9 at home and 11-15 on the road).
The motivation to reach this win total is Step 1, but it’s not the only reason why the Pacers are holding my money.
The Cavaliers are a team I’m not comfortable picking against in most regards, but the Pacers draw them twice in the final week of the regular season; I’d be surprised if the version of them rolled out on those nights is anything like the one we currently fear.
Cleveland is currently 5.5 games ahead of the Celtics for the top seed in the conference, and with the reigning champs holding the best road record in the league (22-6), I can’t imagine that Boston chases wins late in the season.
That is if they are even within earshot of the Cavs at that point. Cleveland opens March with a very favorable run of games, and that could end all intrigue when it comes to the No. 1 seed, thus positioning them to rest their regulars down the stretch.
- March 2 vs. Portland
- March 4 at Chicago
- March 5 vs. Miami
- March 7 at Charlotte
- March 9 at Milwaukee
- March 11 vs. Brooklyn
If you’re like me and believe that Cleveland could be cavalier over the final week or two, there really is no reason that Indiana can’t flirt with 50 wins. In fact, you could easily sell me that the Pacers are in a position to enter the postseason in better form than anyone …
- March 31 vs. Sacramento (28-27, 121.3 PPG allowed since the De’Aaron Fox trade)
- April 2 vs. Charlotte (13-39)
- April 4 vs. Utah (13-41)
- April 6 at Denver (36-19, their fourth game in six days)
- April 8 vs. Washington (9-45)
- April 10 vs. Cleveland
- April 11 vs. Orlando (27-29)
- April 13 at Cleveland
The glaring flaw for Indiana is its rebounding (3-14 in its 17 lowest-rebound-rate games this season), a weakness that was present last season as well. The All-Star break came at a good time for Myles Turner (neck), and if he can stay on the court, I like the chances of this team trending toward average on the glass.
It’s never going to be a strength given how this roster is put together, but we did see them outrebound the opposition for a month’s stretch earlier this season (Dec. 19-Jan. 18); if they can simply be average, they are positioned to win games in bunches over the next two months.
Pick: Pacers over 47.5 wins (+115, DraftKings)
