It’s no secret: we love offense. Whether it is protecting quarterbacks in the NFL, shrinking goalie pads in the NHL, or the three-hitter role in the MLB, it’s as evident as ever that professional sports are aware of their role in the entertainment business and are leaning into it.

How can we exploit these changes in the NBA’s landscape to target the late-season stretch? Let’s look into it further and see where we can find an edge through a key trend.

NBA Betting Trend To Monitor After the NBA All-Star Break

Every league is going through an offensive revolution, through a mixture of optimization, rule changes, and other factors.

Correlated to these changes is the popularization of analytics as every team looks for ways to maximize its potential. In football, we are seeing teams go for fourth downs at a historic rate and baseball has shifted toward bumping their best hitter up in the order as opposed to the traditional “cleanup” spot.

Everyone is aware of these adjustments, and the NBA is no different. Teams are firing 3-pointers at an increasingly absurd rate as they chase math, and it all checks out. The Boston Celtics launch triples at the highest rate in the league and are attempting to defend their title while dominant scorers inside the arc are looking to optimize their shot diet.

Percentage of FGA Coming From 3-Point Land:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
  • 2023: 12.2%
  • 2024: 18.1%
  • 2025: 26.7%

SGA SINKS THE BIG TIME 3-POINTER TO TAKE THE LEAD WITH 1 MINUTE LEFT 🤯

Thunder-Timberwolves | Live on the NBA App
📲 https://t.co/S8xtXnr4ty pic.twitter.com/yz8WokZTyc

— NBA (@NBA) January 21, 2024

• Nikola Jokić
  • 2023: 14.6%
  • 2024: 16.4%
  • 2025: 22.8%

Up to this point, I’ve only put numbers on what your eyes tell you — it’s valuable information but nothing that is going to help you be a smarter gambler for the second half of the season.

Until now.

Fouling is … good?

NBA Betting Trend: Embracing Creativity

I looked back at teams that have ranked in the top quarter of the NBA in cover rate by season and wanted to see if any data presented itself. I looked at a variety of stats and a handful of roster construction patterns.

I took some notes here and there, but nothing proved sticky until it dawned on me — if we are chasing value in shots (how many of you have heard “three is greater than two” when discussing this run-and-gun era?), then maybe one-point shots are defensively optimal.

From 2021-22, in terms of MOST opponent free throws attempted per field goal attempt, the elite cover teams that I measured (again, the top quarter of the league in terms of ATS record) ranked, on average, 16th (15.6 if we are being precise). Average. Nothing to see here.

But in 2023, that ranking inched up to 15th (14.9). Again, not much, but how about a jump up to 10th (9.6) last season?

That’s at least interesting — and through the first half of this season, we’ve repeated that 10th-place average ranking. Might we be onto something?

I think it tracks. These teams are aggressive on defense, and that results in free-throw attempts and not 3-pointers. Their aggression, of course, can also be felt via turnovers and, ideally, steals, something that also helps a team cover a point spread.

Profiting off of This NBA Betting Trend

I broke the NBA in half and evaluated ATS results for teams that ranked in the top 15 of the league in terms of most opponent free throw attempts surrendered per field goal attempt when playing a team that ranked below that mark.

The high-foul teams covered more often when playing low-foul teams, but the difference was marginal. There was, however, a six-pack of teams that displayed a significant difference.

• Houston Rockets
  • Cover% vs. low foul teams: 66.7%
  • Otherwise: 42.3%
• Charlotte Hornets
  • Cover% vs. low foul teams: 61.5%
  • Otherwise: 45.8%
• Indiana Pacers
  • Cover% vs. low foul teams: 53.8%
  • Otherwise: 42.3%
• Portland Trail Blazers
  • Cover% vs. low foul teams: 64.5%
  • Otherwise: 47.8%
• Detroit Pistons
  • Cover% vs. low foul teams: 60.7%
  • Otherwise: 48%
• Brooklyn Nets
  • Cover% vs. low foul teams: 60%
  • Otherwise: 50%

These six teams have covered 61.3% of their games against low-foul rate teams compared to 45.8% against all other opponents.

When taking juice/vig/hold into account, a sports bettor needs to connect the dots on 52.4% of their ATS bets to break even. Using that logic, backing these six teams against a low-foul team has been a very advantageous strategy up to this point, and fading them in other spots has also returned a profit.

I’m sold. Every game is its own entity, but I believe that sportsbooks aren’t going to adjust to a layered stat like this, thus giving us a chance to be ahead of them in targeting such spots. I have no doubt that, like anything, this betting strategy will come with ups and downs, but I think the logic holds up well, and I’ll be betting on these six teams based on the data above until further notice.

I post a picks column in this space every day, and I’ll include which direction to take for these six teams every night in which they play moving forward. I’ll also post those bets on X (@KyleSoppePFN) as we get closer to tip-off and all injury news crystallizes.

Winning bet slips aren’t awarded to those with the fancy math and the unique way of looking at the game — I’ll be putting my money where my Excel sheets are once the NBA returns on Wednesday.

Let’s come out firing!

Upcoming Schedules

Houston Rockets:

• Feb. 21 vs. MIN: Bet
• Feb. 22 at UTA: Fade
• Feb. 25 vs. MIL: Bet

Charlotte Hornets:

• Feb. 19 at LAL: Bet
• Feb. 20 at DEN: Bet
• Feb 22 at POR: No play, both qualified

Indiana Pacers:

• Feb. 20 vs. MEM: Fade
• Feb. 23 vs. LAC: Bet
• Feb. 24 vs. DEN: Bet

Portland Trail Blazers:

• Feb. 20 vs. LAL: Bet
• Feb. 22 vs. CHA: No play, both qualified
• Feb. 24 at UTA: Fade

Detroit Pistons:

• Feb. 21 at SA: Bet
• Feb. 23 at ATL: Bet
• Feb. 24 vs. LAC: Bet

Brooklyn Nets:

• Feb. 20 vs. CLE: Bet
• Feb. 22 at PHI: Fade
• Feb. 24 at WAS: Fade