The NBA 3-point contest has become an electric event. During the first seven years of the exhibition, we only saw three different players hoist the trophy (Dale Ellis won in 1989, following a Larry Bird three-peat and preceding three in a row by Craig Hodges); in this era, though, the contest feels as open as it ever has been.
That makes Damian Lillard’s résumé that much more impressive — it’s been Dame Time in consecutive seasons, and he is looking to be the first to win three straight since Hodges (1990-92). He’s averaging more points, shooting more 3s, and converting triples at a higher rate than last season … does that mean the favorite (priced in the +300 to +350 range, depending on your book) is the play?
NBA 3-Point Contest Participants
This is a very competitive field that features players priced from +300 to +1000. The odds will vary based on where/when you bet, but this list is in order of the favorite to the longest shot in most spots.
- Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks
- Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers
- Buddy Hield, Golden State Warriors
- Norman Powell, Los Angeles Clippers
- Tyler Herro, Miami Heat
- Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
- Cameron Johnson, Brooklyn Nets
- Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
A few players on this list stand out as the “best” players in the field — but remember that we are in the business of judging/projecting a single skill; with that in mind, this is a loaded group.
NBA 3-Point Contest: Narrowing the Field
Handicapping any sport involving human beings is an inexact science, and exhibitions like this (as well as the MLB’s Home Run Derby, the NHL’s Hardest Shot competition, or long-drive events) carry even more variance. We are taking a team sport athlete and asking him to do something in a solo atmosphere never required of him during live action.
Yes, shooters shoot, but these star players always have a defender in their vicinity and, last I checked, they don’t load their jumpers off of a stationary rack all that often in the flow of action. That said, we aren’t completely blind, and events that require statistical creativity are among my favorites, so let’s dig in!
To the shock of no one, the past winners of this contest have been high-volume 3-point shooters. Karl-Anthony Towns, the self-proclaimed best-shooting big man of all time, won this contest in 2022 as a center, a position not represented this time around.
He’s an interesting data point (30.1% of his shots that season were triples, a high rate if you adjust for position), but not one that I’m too interested in when it comes to evaluating this field. Here is the percentage of season field goal attempts that came from 3-point land by the players who have won this event since Stephen Curry notched his first title and began to truly change the way the game is played:
- 2024: Lillard (48.7% of FGA were 3PA)
- 2023: Lillard (54.7%)
- 2021: Curry (58.7%)
- 2020: Hield (59.2%)
- 2019: Joe Harris (51.6%)
- 2018: Devin Booker (36.4%, up from 28.3% the previous year)
- 2017: Eric Gordon (65.1%)
- 2016: Klay Thompson (46.9%)
- 2015: Curry (48.2%)
As you can see, we are generally flirting with half of their shot attempts, a rate that I expect to only rise as the years pass given this league’s trajectory. Hield is the closest thing we have to a specialist in this field (68.4% of his shots have come from behind the arc), but the majority of the field is well over 40%. If you’re curious, in addition to Hield, Lillard (51.7%), Herro (54.6%), and Johnson (57.7%) are the others with more 3PA than 2PA — the two that fail the smell test in this regard are Brunson (31.6%) and Cunningham (30.3%).
And then there were six.
I mentioned the unnatural process of picking up a ball off of a rack and firing. My initial thought was that we could have some height bias when it comes to previous victors and that the rack could be positioned more comfortably for certain-sized participants, but not so much.
- Steve Kerr was listed as 6’1” and Kyrie Irving as 6’2”, both of whom have 3-point titles
- Towns and Dirk Nowitzki were both listed at 7’ and have stolen the show at this event
I’m open to any size of player winning, as I was able to disprove that line of thinking. Something that can’t be argued, though, is we will not see any of these players dribble; with that in mind, I charted the percentage of triple tries that have come off of zero dribbles, crossing the outliers off of my betting card.
- Lillard: 39.6% of 3s come on zero dribbles
- Garland: 42.9%
- Herro: 51.5%
- Powell: 55.1%
- Hield: 68.6%
- Johnson: 74.7%
To be honest with you, I’m not mad about those top two names falling off of my list. The price point on Lillard is tough to swallow (more on that shortly), and Garland’s spike 3P% games have come at the comfort of his home court (13 of his 19 games with more makes than misses this season have come in Cleveland), something he obviously doesn’t have access to in this unique setup.
This contest eliminates five shooters in the first round before a three-person chase for the title and I have four remaining for those three spots.
Goodbye, Herro.
He’s a very good player and has been a potent shooter since his days as a collegiate, but remember when I said we have to make some subjective calls?
When asked about practicing for this event and working with racks of balls, Herro stated that he hasn’t practiced and has no intent to: “I know how to do that,” Herro said. There are obviously a lot of things going on in Miami these days (they are currently the nine-seed, losers of four straight, and figuring out life post-Jimmy Butler); if my hard-earned money is going to be spent on this contest, I want him to show some level of interest.
Is that a requirement? It’s not. Lillard said that, after failing at a few 3-point contests early in his career and practicing, he went in blind last year and didn’t struggle in the least. But I’m willing to label him the exception and not the rule. Herro shot 43.2% from deep in four October games, 40.8% in November, 40.5% in December, 38.3% in January, and is just 14-of–53 (23.3%) through six games in February.
I’ll pass.
NBA 3-Point Contest: Ordering the Podium
With my finals set, it’s time to pick a winner. The sportsbooks available to me will not allow me to play a trifecta with these three advancing as a parlay, so I’m electing to get creative with my betting card. But let’s work backward — nail down the winner and build out the card from there.
The NBA is a daunting season, this much we know. If it wasn’t, then load management wouldn’t be as big a part of the basketball lexicon as it is. Which profile is most appealing to you?
- Johnson: 28 years old, 1,243 minutes this season
- Powell: 31 years old, 1,511 minutes this season
- Hield: 32 years old, 1,296 minutes this season
Freshness and form are two things I want to have in my pocket when entering a contest like this. When it comes to form, there are some trends to consider.
- Hield: 42.3% on 3s through 28 games, 29.1% since
- Powell: 40.2% 3P% in first halves and 45.8% in second halves (Johnson: 50.3% and 33%)
- Johnson: 46.9% corner 3P% with 21.3% of his attempts from there (Powell: 44% on 14.1%)
Data is half collective and half interpretation. The information above is 100% accurate and, when the event is done, will likely impact how the story is told.
How are you reading it?
In theory, you could say that Hield has shown the ability to get red hot. You could say that Powell has shown nice endurance and can peak at the perfect time.
Cam Johnson, absolute laser off-ball shooter…
Currently averaging 19 PPG on 66.6 TS%. Insane accuracy flying around screens, relocating, or hitting stand-still spot-ups. No-dip corners. Providing deep spacing—42.6% of 101 above-the-break 3s. All at 6'8. Very helpful player. pic.twitter.com/IsgVsba10B
— NBA University (@NBA_University) November 25, 2024
Or, you could take my approach. I’m scared off of Hield due to his struggles after a hot start and worried that Powell could start slow, thus bringing in risk when it comes to getting to this point in the festivities.
As for the corner data, that one is straightforward — there are two corner racks. Johnson is more comfortable and more efficient from that spot on the court than Powell, the man I feel is most likely to push him in this final grouping.
Pick: Cam Johnson to win (+750, DraftKings)
Pick: Cam Johnson and Norman Powell to advance (+467, FanDuel)
