The argument can be made, and has been, that the NBA regular season is too long. Many argue we don’t need 82 games to properly seed these teams for a compelling postseason, and continuing with this season’s length compromises the end-of-year product.
And then we get spots like this. The Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers game on Feb. 25 will attract as much attention as any regular season matchup as Luka Dončić seeks revenge on the team that traded him away at the deadline.
With the Lakers quickly trending toward Showtime, this is a fun game to handicap. However, it should be noted that with this much public attention on a single event, the betting markets will be efficient.
How can we beat them? I have thoughts.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers, LeBron James Angle
Much will be said about “whose team this is” and “the passing of the torch.” Let’s settle down for a minute about all of that. LeBron James is still a game-changing talent who elevates those around him significantly.
“The only concern of mine is, your best player is still 40 years old.” – @TeamLou23
“He’s better than Luka Doncic right now?” – @ChandlerParsons
“He’s (LeBron James) been the best player for the Lakers all year.” 👀 – @TeamLou23
Is LeBron still the Lakers best player? pic.twitter.com/JJHT1wtnUS
— Run It Back (@RunItBackFDTV) February 24, 2025
Only time will tell as to which star has the greatest impact on how this season ultimately finishes for the Lakers, but we are in the business of evaluating this single game, a 48-minute snap shot of where the trends point at this very moment in time and in that regard, I’m OK with a minor fade of James (famous last words for any gambler over the past two decades).
“I’m a natural-born wide receiver and he’s [Luka Dončić ] a natural-born quarterback.”
I don’t disagree with the sentiment behind James’ words from over the weekend, but where we differ (me and you) is on the type of receiver that he is. We see his big physical frame and high school gridiron mixtapes and assume that he’s Ja’Marr Chase or A.J. Brown — an overwhelming mismatch capable of getting what we wants.
But is that right?
Let’s forget the fact that those standouts get the luxury of lining up from far less physically imposing defenders and focus on how James is currently playing. Right now, it’s not bully ball. It’s not multiple flexing celebrations per game. It’s more DeVonta Smith — slot routes and picking his spots to impact the game in a big moment.
I can already here you. “Smith is 170 pounds soaking wet.”
Get past that. It’s the role archetype I’m comparing, not the size profile.
In the two games in which Dončić has been cut free from the minutes restriction, and been used not like a newcomer but like the super duper star we all believe him to be, James has attempted just five free throws in 71 minutes, or one every 14.2 minutes of action. His rate in all other games this season? A little over twice as often — one freebie every 14.2 minutes of game time.
That’s a major change. It’s also the tiniest of sample sizes, but it’s what we have to work with at this moment. When he’s been the downhill locomotive that we are accustomed to seeing, in these two measured games, he’s been insanely efficient, even by his standards. On shots within five feet of the bucket, he’s dropped in 12-of-14 attempts, a gaudy conversion rate that is obviously tied to his quarterback putting him in position to succeed where he thrives.
But he’s made just one-third of his shots outside of those attempts and the low free throw rate indicates that he’s not forcing those drives, rather just taking them on when the defense fails to defend him properly.
Is that going to be the case against Dallas? The Mavs, despite an array of injuries at the center position, are the second best at-the-rim defense in the league (in terms of opponent FG%) and while few teams can actually slow down James when he gets a head of steam, their ability to contest those shots (along with James recent trend of only taking uncontested looks in close) has me thinking that we don’t see a ton of layups.
For my money, James is the greatest to ever lace them up (an argument for another day). That said, even I can’t deny that relying on his three-point shooting when it comes to scoring production carries quite a bit of risk. I’m fully aware that he’s been lights out recently, but if the easy points aren’t going to be there, he NEEDS to be lights out from distance and that’s simply not a leap I’m willing to take.
Remember the 7-of-31 finish to January?
Remember the 31.7% 3P% in December?
This game carries some blowout potential (hence the 8.5-point spread) and while this game is highlighted by most, James is keenly aware of the schedule that awaits (a back-to-back on Thursday-Friday that opens up a window in which they play 13 times in 21 days).
Pick: LeBron James under 24.5 points (-105, DraftKings)
