Is this Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics game a preview of the 2025 NBA Finals? We are a long way away from that, but it is pretty clearly the featured game of the weekend. While that means that the industry will beat the betting lines into a very efficient spot, I believe there remains an angle to exploit before it’s too late.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics
The Celtics are the defending champions and look as good now as they ever have. Their roster is talented from top to bottom, and while they went through January with little urgency, this is a team poised to make a real run at a repeat.
And I struggle to bet on them.
Let me clarify — I struggle to bet on them traditionally. With the sky-high 3-point attempt rate, the variance often scares me off. They are capable of putting points on the board as quickly as any team in this league, but we also have plenty of examples where they struggle and make covering spreads far from a given (45.2% cover rate this season).
Instead, I find myself leaning into the prop markets for their games. The ebb-and-flow nature is there in terms of overall results, but over 48 minutes, I feel good about one thing: this defense.
A few hours later, the Celtics pay hommage to Robert Williams and turned Al Horford into a roamer at the back of the defense.
The Trail Blazers are struggling to get at the rim as it is usually their strength.
Celtics are forcing them to take mid-ranges with their coverages. https://t.co/w3lqGYKMtx pic.twitter.com/fbrdCp0BMG
— azmatlanba (@azmatlanba) March 6, 2025
Even the best shooters in the world have off days, but versatility and effort on the defensive end rarely slump. The Lakers are cruising, but the stats suggest that what has made them a wins factory lately isn’t something that can be banked on in this spot.
During their current eight-game win streak, Los Angeles is averaging .251 free-throw attempts per field goal (up 23% from the previous month). This shouldn’t be overly surprising with Luka Dončić’s creativity and LeBron James’ aggression — can they do it on the road against potentially the most fundamentally sound defense in the league?
Free Throws per Field Goal Attempt Rate vs. Celtics, 2024:
- Last 10 games: .130
- Previous 20 games: .178
We know that the Celtics’ length and athleticism create problems for the opposition; if the declining free-throw rate is here to stay, how are teams realistically supposed to score?
The Lakers aren’t banking exclusively on getting to the stripe, but the Celtics rank 27th in pace of play this year and, during this eight-game win streak, Los Angeles is functioning even slower. They are relying on it at a high rate, something they are very capable of doing but also something that could dry up in a hurry against an elite defense like the one they face tonight.
That lack of pace is overlooked by the general public because of the highlight-reel touchdown passes. However, it’s factually accurate and the driving force behind my betting angle. If I asked you to guess how many points per game the Lakers are averaging during this surge, what would you say?
Remember that they haven’t had to travel much (coming off of a six-game home stand), have posted elite free-throw-rate numbers, played an overtime game, and had a game on Tuesday night against the defense-is-optional New Orleans Pelicans that saw them post their most efficient offensive effort since Jan. 16 … of 2023, that is.
With all of that in mind, I guess that you’d assume the number is well north of 114.3, but that’s not the case. With everything seemingly moving in their favor, they are averaging just 4.8 points more than they are projected to score against one of the elite units in the league that is trending in the right direction and amid a seven-game home stand.
Is that enough of a dip in expectations? I don’t think it is.
The Lakers funneled their offense through James and Dončić (51.7% of their FGA and 71.4% of their FTA) on March 6 against a bad New York Knicks defense — they scored 98 points over the final 48 minutes. It’s no secret that running their offense through their two stars is optimal, and that was all they mustered in a favorable spot?
That’s obviously a small sample, but Boston’s defense is unlikely to allow that duo to be as involved OR as efficient as they’ve been; if this game features a limited number of possessions as the recent trends suggest, that puts the Lakers’ point total in serious question.
Pick: Lakers under 109.5 points