We might be six months away from Thursday Night Football, but the NBA has blessed our late-week TV schedule with a New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers showdown tonight.
It’s easy to fall into the trap of betting overs in high-profile games — especially with this LA duo heating up — but the sportsbooks are well aware of this. With public money likely to pour in on optimistic angles, I’ll be the brave soul that steps in front of it.
New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers Prediction
Don’t get me wrong. There’s a lot to like offensively for both teams, and their playoff fate will likely hinge on their ability to score at an elite level.
The potential is there. But do we see it tonight?
New York has played at a bottom-10 pace all season, and given this roster’s construction, I don’t see that changing. They’re content to slow the game down and bet on efficiency. That approach makes sense, and against a high-end opponent, I expect the Knicks to lean into it even more.
We all know how potent the LeBron James–Luka Dončić tandem is. But among the many highlights, are you aware that they, too, are betting on efficiency over volume these days?
- First four games of the Dončić era: 102 possessions per game
- Last six games: 95.8 possessions per game (6.1% decline)
Both defenses have struggled at times, but a large part of that has been their issues in transition — a flaw that shouldn’t be a major issue in the slower-paced game I’m expecting.
If you dig deeper into defensive metrics, the picture isn’t as gloomy as the raw numbers suggest. Both New York and Los Angeles rank top 10 in defending isolation plays, a skill set that could be critical against elite offensive talent who can call their own number.
Lakers Schedule Adjusted Defensive Rating Rank
The defense is real, even if you adjust for opponent strength pic.twitter.com/Z2g3WGficK
— Sravan (@sradjoker) March 5, 2025
Also worth noting is the Lakers’ defense against pick-and-roll ball handlers.
Anthony Davis’ impact is all over these numbers, but if they can stay disciplined against Jalen Brunson, I think it’s very possible that neither team hits 115 points tonight — especially with Brunson struggling from deep (6 for 24 from 3 over the past week).
Karl-Anthony Towns (personal) sat out last game, but I’m assuming he plays, which is worst case for my angle. If he doesn’t, we gain closing line value.
That said, we’ve seen the Knicks’ supporting cast struggle with consistency, which could lead to extended slumps in a low-possession game.
- Josh Hart: Under four made field goals in three of his last four games
- Mikal Bridges: 9 for 11 shooting on Sunday, but 15 games below 45% eFG%
- OG Anunoby: FG% has fluctuated all season (last three games: 9 for 28 FG)
The Lakers’ scoring ceiling is high, but so is their floor. If either team goes cold for a quarter or two, I think we’re in great shape.
LeBron James Splits
- Pre-All-Star Break: 30.9% of shots were 3-pointers, 2.37 assists per turnover
- Post-All-Star Break: 37.2% of shots were 3-pointers, 1.18 assists per turnover
Dončić has 5+ turnovers in three straight games and has been settling for jumpers at an alarming rate — yet another way he could underwhelm for stretches.
- February with Lakers: 43 of 99 shots (43.4%) were 3-pointers
- March with Lakers: 25 of 36 shots (69.4%) were 3-pointers
At the end of the day, I fully admit that this total is obtainable, but I believe it requires efficiency well above expectation given my projected possession count.
I’ll take my chances with what’s most likely to happen, and in this game, that’s a scoring slump helping us cash this ticket.
Pick: Under 230 points (-110, DraftKings)
