It’s not the season’s most highly anticipated NBA slate, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t betting lines that are asking to be exploited. I’ve got my eyes on this Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets game that seems to be an overreaction to what we’ve seen lately, more than what we can project moving forward.
Sacramento Kings vs. Houston Rockets
Maybe I’m stubborn.
More likely, I’m both, but I’m hanging in there with my duplicative skill set take when it comes to the Kings in this post De’Aaron Fox era. I know they’ve won five of their past seven games and that the Zach LaVine vibes are trending in a better direction.
Malik Monk on Zach Lavine is hilarious 😂😂 pic.twitter.com/KkHMzaNMb9
— All Things Sacramento Kings (@swipadegoat) February 9, 2025
I’m encouraged by the recent developments, but I’m not yet labeling as predictive against an opponent like this. The Rockets are the second best defense in the league and that, in my opinion, gives them access to the floor that we know exists in Sacramento.
Don’t take my word for it, take theirs.
The Kings have hung 248 points on the overmatched New Orleans Pelicans and Utah Jazz over their past two games, production that would, at face value, point you in the direction of a potent offense.
Don’t get me wrong, this roster has that potential, but we were aware of that, especially against lottery loomers. But even in those explosive spots, they had a quarter in which they failed to clear 23 points – the floor made itself known for an entire 12 minute quarter in both of those games, seemingly out of nowhere.
Why wouldn’t we expect such a window tonight at the very least? That would require the road team to score 91 points in the other three quarters, an average of 30.3 per quarter (this is assuming 23 points in one quarter for the Kings – their low-end quarter could well be worse).
The Rockets’ last four home games have featured opponents like Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards, and De’Aaron Fox – none of those teams reached 30 points in multiple quarters. And we supposed to give the Kings the benefit of the doubt to say they can average such a mark against a rested Houston team that is going to value every second of every quarter of every game the rest of the way (they enter today as the five-seed, but they are just one-game in the loss column away from the second-seeded Denver Nuggets).
When comparing their pace from their past 13 games to the 13 prior, Sacramento’s rate is down 3.2%, a sizeable decline and one that further lowers their ceiling in a matchup that already comes with no shortage of questions.
This season, Houston has allowed under a point per possession 10 times and under 1.02 on 15 occasions – if you’re buying the recent volume trends for the Kings and the Rockets’ defensive tenacity, this number is a handful of points too high.
If you’re trying to get wild on a Saturday, the fastest team in the NBA (Memphis) averages 107.6 possessions per game. Pencil in one point per possession at that worst case scenario in terms of volume and we are projecting under 108 points (+197 on DraftKings)
Pick: Kings under 113.5 (-115, DraftKings)
