Wednesday’s NBA slate doesn’t profile as a great one and this Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets contest could make good on that pessimism.
That said, there is money to be made on all games and the trends are pointing in two strong directions when it comes to investing in this contest.
Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets Best Bet
I rarely project blowouts in basketball games. Follow along all month for the high levels of March Madness content and you’ll see more of the same – the wide range of outcomes for a single game sample is so wide that predicting a standalone outcome with confidence can be tricky unless all of the stars align.
There will be a handful of those spots once we get the bracket in our hands (one week from Sunday!) and in the Association, I think we have access to such a spot this evening.
I’ve been too low on the Kings, based on their results at least, since the trading of De’Aaron Fox. Am I willing to admit I was wrong about the fit of this new look roster? I’m not willing to take the “L” just yet, but with Domantas Sabonis (hamstring) sidelined through this weekend at the very least, I’m even more comfortable passing on this team than I was before.
Yes, I’m aware that they beat the breaks off of the Dallas Mavericks on Monday without their star center, but that was a game that got away from Dallas after Kyrie Irving tore his ACL after just nine minutes of action.
I feel for Irving, obviously, but I don’t feel bad for the books, as it would appear that they are comfortable in assuming that this offense can function as usual in the short-term.
I’m not sold.
Sabonis TD pass to LaVine
Used to pray for times like this pic.twitter.com/povkz6JwBu
— Skyler (KFR) (@SacFilmRoom) February 11, 2025
Sabonis is an offensive hub and the ender of possessions. He’s not the only reason that this is the sixth-best rebounding team that is also well above average in fast-break efficiency, but he’s a big part of it.
Maybe you’re a big believer in Jonas Valanciunas. Don’t get me wrong, as a Toronto Raptors fan, I have a soft spot for him, but am I comfortable in projecting him to control the glass while being asked to check Nikola Jokic?
I am not.
The Nuggets have won 17 of their 18 highest rebound rate games this season (average point differential: +14.7) and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they added to that total tonight against a shallow Kings frontcourt.
But wait, there’s more.
Before that shellacking of the Mavs, the Kings had a 14.4% turnover rate during the Zach LaVine era (10 games), a 4.3-percent bump up from where they stood in the 10 games prior. That’s a problem at face value and gets increasingly concerning when you remove the primary playmaking option in Sabonis.
Turnovers are not only missed opportunities to score, something that is going to be of value against an offense like Denver, but they are a gateway to allowing points in bunches. The Nuggets are the best transition offense in the league this season and are averaging 19.5% more points per transition opportunity than they did a year ago – this Jokic-led machine is somehow getting more potent with each passing season.
I think you can see why I’m on the Nuggets in a big way tonight. If I’m confident in my projected outcome, why not dabble in the props market as well?
I have no issues in backing the visitors to score under 116.5 points, but there is a connected piece to that angle that I like even more.
Keegan Murray is a fine player and probably will continue to be one for years to come, but he’s yet to really prove himself as a consistent creator. Unless that changed overnight, I’m OK with fading him as long as Sabonis is sidelined.
Last season, 56.5% of Murray’s shot attempts came without a single dribble; that rate is up to 61.9% this year. He doesn’t often create for others (one assist for every 23 minutes of action this season) and even less often for himself, thus making the absence of Sabonis one that I think he feels more than any of his teammates.
With no more than 11 shot attempts in seven of his past eight games and zero free throw attempts in seven of 11 contests in February, the path to 13 points isn’t very clear to me. You’re either going to need him to attack the rim or get hot from deep – he made five triples on opening night and has done it just twice since.
In my humble opinion, this number has been posted due to him reaching 13 points in five of his past six games, and that might allow us to gain further value as this game nears tip. It’s a fact that he’s done well recently, but without Sabonis to facilitate things, I think there’s much more floor than ceiling in his scoring profile. I’m comfortable in saying that with my wallet on Wednesday.
Pick: Nuggets -5.5 (-106, FanDuel)
Pick: Keegan Murray under 12.5 points (-108, FanDuel)
