If you’re not betting a Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz game on a Wednesday night in late February, do you even like basketball?
Jokes aside, games like this tend to fly under the radar, and that creates a bit of a window for us to pounce on inefficiencies within the market. I’m not here to suggest that either of these teams is any good, but I am here to share my plan to make money by wagering in a game that the general public might not even be aware is taking place this evening!
As a thank you for reading this piece, I’ve got a high upside parlay for you to consider — one that combines this game with some action on the college hardwood.
NBA Pick for February 26
Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz Best Bet
The Kings are on the very outskirts of the playoff conversation while the Jazz are the front runner in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes – better days are ahead for both of these franchises because they almost have to be.
That said, are the times really as bad as they look in Utah?
Don’t answer that.
They probably are, but the recent profile is at least moving in the right direction. In comparing their past 10 games to their 12 prior, their pace is up 2.8% and their rebound rate has improved by 4.9%. This roster isn’t bereft of talent, and with a bottom lottery slot almost a certainty at this point, Utah doesn’t need to tank in any meaningful capacity.
Sacramento, while clinging to its play-in life, isn’t in as sweet of a spot. Before beating the brakes off of a checked-out Charlotte Hornets team on Monday (a home game, with the two days prior off and more than a week removed from their last day of travel), the Kings’ past 10 games reflected a defensive efficiency that was down 7.4% from their 12 contests that preceded it.
Defense wasn’t a strength for them in the first place, but when they had De’Aaron Fox running their offense, they had more room for error – that’s not the case any more.
If you want to marry these trends, you’ll understand why the Jazz have my financial support tonight, a sentence I can safely say I’ve yet to type this season. Despite having Fox for the majority of the year, the Kings are just 8-10 outright in their 18 fastest paced games. In those contests, their point-per-possession defense has slipped below their low standards.
Looks like “when” maybe be turning into “now”
I’ve been on the Kyle Filipowski train since pre-draft
He’s got a diverse offensive repertoire, great vision, and is a better than advertised defender
Today, he racked up 20-11-5-2-1 on 6-11 FG (4-4 3PT)pic.twitter.com/XEVMiK5Hbq https://t.co/KmWMHAx10o
— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) February 25, 2025
If Utah continues to push tempo, they should generate plenty of scoring opportunities, and in a game catching this many points, a big offensive number is a great place to start. Sacramento has dropped 17 of 22 games when not winning the battle on the boards, something that could happen tonight.
That includes a loss in Portland three weeks ago, another lower-level team — foul trouble for Damontas Sabonis added to the Kings’ struggles. Their do-everything big man fouled out in 29 minutes of action. If his playing time is curtailed in any form or fashion tonight, I think we won’t have to sweat this ticket late.
I tend to value home-court advantage less in the professional ranks than in college, but the elevation and crowd at Utah seems to have an impact. The Jazz has posted 19 of their top-30 defensive showings at home and while they are just 4-7 outright this month in front of their fans, the resume looks better than the results suggest.
Those four wins came against the Orlando Magic, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers, and Houston Rockets, all of whom are highly competitive and more than a few steps ahead of the Kings. Their losses? Four were within one possession at the end of regulation while two of the other three came on the second night of a back-to-back against a playoff team.
In essence, Utah has either been competitive for 48 minutes or completely outclassed talent-wise in every game this month. Considering my low opinion of Sacramento, backing the Jazz becomes an even endeavor.
I mentioned a reward to you, the loyal reader – I have a pair of NCAAB bets on my card tonight. Check back once we get a bracket in a few weeks and you’ll have as much college basketball content as you can stomach, but both of these angles come with a handful of points of value based on my model. Thus, I am pairing them with the Jazz moneyline to give my Wednesday night added upside!
Pick: Jazz +9.5 (-112, DraftKings)
Upside Crossover Parlay: Jazz moneyline, Kentucky -2.5, Texas A&M under 76.5 points (+1381, DraftKings)
