We’ve been spoiled lately with potential NBA Finals matchups and wild finishes. There’s always a chance we get an instant classic (maybe Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies?), but Friday’s slate doesn’t exactly scream “must-watch.”
That said, we’re still taking a swing at this Charlotte Hornets vs. San Antonio Spurs showdown in Texas.
Charlotte Hornets vs. San Antonio Spurs Best Bets
Before we dive in, let’s be clear—there’s risk in this game. Not because of what the numbers say, but because, like a quarter of the league right now, there are motivation concerns.
Both teams could be playoff contenders next season with some lottery luck and better health. But as it stands, the Hornets have just three wins since the Super Bowl, and the Spurs haven’t won back-to-back games in 2025. Winning isn’t exactly the priority, which makes this game tough to project.
So why not lean into the chaos?
Charlotte isn’t good, but at least it’s relatively healthy. Meanwhile, San Antonio has lost both of its star players for the season, leaving them short on talent and, in my opinion, even less likely to push their remaining impact players too hard.
The Hornets haven’t had much success, but after enduring the worst three-game stretch in NBA history, things have at least improved:
- Two wins
- A one-point loss to the Cavaliers
- Outscored by just four points in quarters 2-4 against the Timberwolves
- Held Dallas to 25 or fewer points in three quarters
That’s something. And in a tanktastic matchup, it counts as a win.
The Spurs, on the other hand, haven’t been nearly as competitive, and the loss of De’Aaron Fox isn’t going to help. In March, they’re allowing a baffling 1.33 points per possession.
With LaMelo Ball running the show, the Hornets are happy to push the pace, and I’m happy to back that strategy here. Betting-wise, I’m taking the Hornets against the spread (ATS) to return 1.5 units and putting half a unit on a Hail Mary same-game parlay (SGP). That way, even if only the simpler bet cashes, I’m still up one unit.
Now onto the fun part.
San Antonio’s defense has been a mess. They’re allowing 40.3 opponent three-point attempts per game this month (38+ in six of seven games). My first thought after the Victor Wembanyama injury was that they’d be vulnerable inside, but it turns out they’re just bad everywhere—and in 2025, teams hunt threes.
That opens Pandora’s box.
Miles Bridges is red hot—but if you’re a believer in momentum, I’m probably not the writer for you. If you prefer to trust the numbers, Bridges isn’t a great bet to keep shooting like this, and that has a cascading effect I’m rolling into one big wager.
Bridges’ Shooting Profile
- March: 45.7% on open threes (79.3% of his attempts are open)
- Before March: 33% on open threes (91.1% of his attempts were open)
Basically, he’s been shooting way above his baseline when left open, even though he’s getting slightly fewer of those looks. You don’t need a math degree to see that’s not sustainable.
This season, Bridges is taking a career-high 40.6% of his shots from three. If his shooting cools off, his scoring will naturally drop—and that’s where things get interesting.
I don’t trust Bridges to attack consistently. He’s capable, but he falls in love with the jumper, which is how you get a two-game stretch between February and March where he attempted just one free throw in 76 minutes. Add in LaMelo Ball’s high usage rate, and it’s easy to see flaws in Bridges’ recent 30.6 PPG average in March.
Lamelo Ball shotmaking & creativity
He’s one of a kind. Nobody else hoops like this. pic.twitter.com/M5eUUBIlIC
— Pull up shoot (@NElGHT_) January 22, 2025
This season, when Bridges fails to score 25 points, he averages just under two made threes per game (1.97). If we’re expecting regression from him, that shifts the scoring burden to Ball, and I’m fine with that.
Ball is aggressive—he’s taken 20+ shots in four straight healthy games—and that’s all we need in this spot. With Fox out, I’m less worried about foul trouble, which should open the door for another 30+ minute, 20+ shot, 10+ three-point attempt night.
Sign me up.
Charlotte is going to score one way or another, and if we’re betting against Bridges, Ball is the logical place to turn. When Ball scores 25+ points, he averages 4.4 made threes per game (hitting 4+ threes in 20 of those 26 games).
By targeting two key factors—San Antonio’s defensive indifference and Bridges’ unsustainable shooting—we can build a same-game parlay with a big payout. March Madness is about to be a wild ride (stay tuned!), but it’ll be even better if we’ve got Hornets money fueling the action.
Pick: Hornets +3.5 (-115, DraftKings)
“Pay for March Madness Pools” SGP: Hornets ML, LaMelo Ball over 24.5 points, LaMelo Ball over 3.5 threes, Miles Bridges under 25.5 points, Miles Bridges under 2.5 threes (+1100, DraftKings)