We welcome back the NBA with a single-game slate, and while I don’t think there’s much value to squeeze out of the spread, there is a bet for this Charlotte Hornets vs. Los Angeles Lakers game that already has my money.
NBA Pick for February 19
Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers
We don’t yet have clarity on the status of LaMelo Ball (ankle), and with just a two-game sample size of the Luka Dončić era in Los Angeles, there are plenty of moving pieces for this game as we sit here right now.
Coming out of the All-Star break, I’m more happy to embrace that sort of variance than normal.
Comparing the two games before the All-Star break against the Utah Jazz, the Lakers’ production patterns are interesting.
- Two of their 11 highest increases in pace over expectation
- Their 11th most efficient offensive game vs expectations (+10.2%)
- Their fourth-worst defensive effort of the season (opponent offensive rating was 16.1% over their season average)
In the eight quarters they’ve played since the seismic trade, the point totals by quarter have been 62-57-56-70 and 63-57-70-60, respectively.
LeBron James one-legged fade.
Luka Dončić one-legged fade.A mirror image for the Lakers superstar duo 🤩🤩 pic.twitter.com/svH9a0xXlO
— NBA (@NBA) February 11, 2025
If you take the four lowest quarters over that tiny sample, we are still clearing this projected total, and I have more hope for the Hornets’ offensive upside (with Ball) than I do the Jazz.
In those games, Dončić has totaled only 47 minutes, but Los Angeles has posted two of its five highest 3PA totals — if this is a more comfortable spot for a team that is seemingly willing to launch triples, I’m very interested in how this game could look.
I’m not a doctor, but I am cautiously optimistic about Ball’s status considering that he had a chance to play in Charlotte’s final game of the first half of the season (injured on Feb. 10). That is where our edge comes in, and I like this bet more with Ball active than I hate it should he sit.
In its last eight games with its star point guard a full-go, Charlotte’s offensive rating was 9% better and the defensive rating 9.6% worse than its last eight with him inactive.
During February, we’ve seen this team hang tough with the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks while outlasting the re-tooled San Antonio Spurs. I’m not suggesting that Charlotte wins this game or even that they cover, but I do think they can score enough to force Los Angeles to remain aggressive on the offensive end for the majority of this game; that has me thinking this total is 7-10 points too low!
Pick: Over 223.5 points (-108, DraftKings)
