The NBA returns tonight with a Charlotte Hornets vs. Los Angeles Lakers game that carries a big spread but also one that comes with a handful of interesting talent matchups that offer sharp bettors access to some serious upside.
The last of these props is one that I played by itself, and if you put all of these edges together, you’re looking at a Hornets vs. Lakers ticket that carries odds north of 10-to-1!
Same Game Parlay: Hornets vs. Lakers
LaMelo Ball’s status (ankle) isn’t 100% clear, but with a total that is on the rise and him holding prop lines at various books, operating under the assumption that he is active is the lane I am driving in.
Miles Bridges has failed to reach five assists in each of his last four games (and seven of eight) in which Ball has started. I don’t think that’s surprising, and this is the “safest” part of this parlay — his pass-per-minute rate has declined since Brandon Miller was lost for the season just over a month ago and, for the season, his 7.2 potential assists per game requires a high conversion rate from a bad team to ruin this ticket.
I’ll take my chances.
On the other side, we are talking about a Los Angeles team with only two data points in the Luka Dončić era, one-sided results against the Utah Jazz. In those two contests, LeBron James has taken half his shots from downtown (30.5% rate previously). It appears that he wants to take a step back and let Dončić get comfortable, a role that I think is here to stay for the short term.
😳 Back-to-back beautiful assists from Luka Dončić to LeBron James and then Austin Reaves, for consecutive threes. Amazing. #LakeShow #LukaMagic 🪄 pic.twitter.com/5ggoVn4UpL
— Giovanni Rossi (@spawnix) February 13, 2025
Building on that train of thought, I’m essentially looking at James as a point guard. A supersized one but more of a perimeter-oriented facilitator than a runaway locomotive. In those two games, he’s averaging 15.9 assists + turnovers per 40 minutes, a 7.4% increase from his previous rate.
If he’s sitting on the perimeter, he’s launching triples and putting his teammates in a position to succeed (his 50% rate came against the defense that allows the second-highest 3-point rate; he now faces an opponent that ranks next to them in that regard).
If he’s filling that role, Dončić can assume the alpha role regarding scoring the basketball, something he’d certainly love to do in front of his new home fans. He’s totaled just 47 minutes in his two games with the Lakers; while I believe his role is likely to be extended sooner than later, an underwhelming minute count tonight is possible given the 13.5-point spread.
In his two contests, he averaged 3.4 field goal attempts per assist, a sizable tick up from his rate in Dallas pre-trade (2.7). Ball is a lot of things on a basketball court, but he’s not exactly a bought-in defender, and I like Dončić to go at him with the understanding that he can get his buckets without much resistance.
Ball isn’t shy of a run-and-gun tempo. If he gets tied up in a 1-on-1 sort of deal with Dončić, we introduce foul trouble into the equation. Is it something I’m banking on? No, but it is a possible out that at least needs to be mentioned due to Dončić’s limited defensive versatility.
Last but not least comes a leg that I’ve bet separately in such a way that I’ll break even in this game if only this portion comes through. Mark Williams was supposed to be a Laker, but he’s not, and that gives Charlotte a rim protector on their backline.
During the first half of the season, only four teams allowed a lower eFG% to pick-and-roll rollers than the Hornets. Three of those squads (Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, and Boston) carry elite upside on that end of the floor while the other (Portland) has focused on building their defense from the inside out. Those are the only teams that defend what it is that Jaxson Hayes does better than the visiting team tonight, and that’s enough for me.
This season, 86.5% of Hayes’ shots have come within five feet — the spot on the court where Williams plants himself. The point projection isn’t high, and that can be scary given the upward trend of this game total, but the ceiling usage is simply too low to have me concerned.
- Season-high in FGA: Seven
- One game with more than FTA this season
Hayes is dealing with a facial contusion, and the Alex Len signing is notable, a veteran Los Angeles will want to get comfortable. You know that I’m projecting James to stay on the perimeter and Dončić to flex his scoring muscles — if they aren’t setting up Hayes for dunks, I have a hard time getting Hayes to the five FGM that it’ll take for him to break my heart.
SGP: LeBron James over 2.5 3PM, Luka Dončić under 6.5 assists, Jaxson Hayes under 8.5 points, Miles Bridges under 4.5 assists (+1031, FanDuel)
