We are in a month of madness, and given how the Atlanta Hawks and Memphis Grizzlies play, this could be the most entertaining game we see in March — that’s saying something. With that understood, however, might there be an edge in actually betting against fireworks?
Atlanta Hawks vs. Memphis Grizzlies Best Bet
This won’t be the first time that the “fun police” come calling for me. In life, I prefer stability over the unexpected, the things I can control over the spontaneous. I married the opposite, and that makes me the bad guy when it comes to fun outings more often than not, so this is a role I’m comfortable with.
This game features the top two offenses in the NBA in pace. Two teams that believe they need to win the race to 140 points to win a ball game, overlooking the fact that an occasional defensive stop would also help make that happen.
The point guards are phenomenal, the shooters are pinpoint, and the coaching staffs are well aware of their specific strengths. I’m not doubting any of that, I’m just doubting a total that is as high as it currently is. And because my wet-blanket approach to these types of things is the exception and not the rule, we might gain value by waiting this out.
This won’t take long, promise. It’s really just me trying to sell you on why these offenses, in this specific spot, won’t be flawless. That’s essentially all it takes in a game that needs nearly 5.3 points per minute to reach this number.
Neither Trae Young (Achilles) nor Ja Morant (shoulder) is at full strength. While I expect both to play, nagging injuries at least have to be noted in a game like this, where an early departure would significantly dip the per-minute point production.
As exciting as they both are, it’s not as if they are inevitable. Young has shot 43% from the field in one month since the beginning of last season, and Morant (25.5% from 3-point land this season at home), for some reason, sits on the perimeter more in front of the Memphis faithful than otherwise (34.8% of his field-goal attempts at home this year have been 3s compared to 26.7% on the road).
Upside? Of course, but isn’t the majority of the upside being sucked out of this equation already? If one team fails to clear 115 points, you’re swimming upstream to cash an over ticket, and if either point guard struggles for even a quarter (heaven forbid a half), that outcome becomes very possible.
The Grizzlies are an above-average defense when it comes to limiting ball handlers’ scoring efficiency in pick-and-roll situations, while the Hawks boast the sixth-highest opponent turnover rate in those spots. Again, we don’t need them to struggle offensively for 48 minutes, we just need windows of inefficiency to make this work and things line up nicely for that to happen.
Georges Niang has been a thorn in the side of under bettors since joining Atlanta, and while I loved him during his college days, am I really supposed to fear a career 7.3 point-per-game scorer?
In reality, I’m viewing Niang as more of a red flag. Atlanta brought him in with a very limited résumé and is asking him to get off a shot more than once every 2.5 minutes of action. Jalen Johnson’s injury hurt the Hawks’ trajectory, and while Niang’s flurry of late has been fun to watch, it’s not the most sustainable of production avenues.
Back to Memphis’ defense, they aren’t elite, but they do offer some shutdown upside for periods of time. Jaren Jackson Jr. makes getting to the rim difficult, and even when he’s not swatting shots, he’s felt.
Memphis is a better-than-average defense up to this point in opponents’ 2-point percentage of shots that aren’t blocked, something that points to the value of Jackson’s shadow.
Before I let you go and hope that, for one night, I have company on being the “boring” one, I’ll leave you with this thought. A running clock is the enemy of any over bettor. Sometimes that is overlooked, but it’s pretty simple — if the clock is running, we’re getting closer to the conclusion.
Of course, a few stops would be nice, but a running clock is a good place to start for under bettors, and the Hawks rank in the top third of the NBA in terms of lowest foul rate.
If there isn’t going to be a surplus of “easy” points (deuces for the Hawks and free throws for the Grizzlies), I think we see something like Atlanta’s last road game being the end result in Memphis (131-109 loss).
Pick: Under 253 points
