The majority of NBA teams start the second half of the season on Thursday, Feb. 20, and the lines have been posted early.
Most betting markets are set into place by tipoff time, and that makes it hard to win against closing numbers. But by getting ahead of this Clippers vs. Bucks game, you give yourself an avenue to a highly valuable bet.
NBA Pick for February 20
Los Angeles Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks
These are two teams with championship-winning stars currently in the playoff picture, albeit on the lower end of the standings (Clippers: 31-23, sixth in the West; Bucks: 29-24, fifth in the East). I understand why this game is labeled essentially as a coin toss, especially with the stars on both sides being rested, but I’m not sold that these teams are as close as their records suggest.
At this point, I think we can agree that Giannis Antetokounmpo is an unstoppable force (career-high 31.8 PPG this season while making over 60% of his shots for a second consecutive season); while a calf injury is lingering, I’m buying a low price here and hoping he plays.
The Bucks get the Washington Wizards on Friday, Feb. 21, and the Miami Heat on Sunday, Feb. 23, a team that could be headed in the wrong direction sooner rather than later. Why not see if Antetokounmpo is good to go in this spot against a playoff-caliber team and rest him in the coming days should his body not react properly?
Los Angeles has struggled on a year-over-year basis in chasing opponents off of the 3-point line, and if that is going to be the case with Antetokounmpo running downhill, L.A.’s defensive floor is awfully low.
Damian Lillard’s numbers over his last three games:
• 34.7 points
• 50 FG%
• 40.5 3P%
• 8.3 assists
• 7 rebounds
• 1 steal
• Players are shooting 13-of-39 (33.3%) when guarded by him
pic.twitter.com/CSxzZU4w4J— Dalton Sell (@sell_dalton) February 11, 2025
Opponent 3-Point Attempt Rate vs. Clippers (League Rank):
- 2023: 37.2% (eighth)
- 2024: 40% (19th)
- 2025: 44.1% (27th)
The Bucks are 14-4 in their 18 highest 3-point-attempt-rate games this season and three of those four losses either came without Antetokounmpo or on the second night of a back-to-back run.
He’s next to impossible to slow, and if Los Angeles commits fully to building the wall that so many teams try to do, Milwaukee has Damian Lillard, Gary Trent Jr., and the always sneaky AJ Green (over 40% from 3 in all three of his seasons with 84.8% of his career shots coming from distance) waiting to launch.
The Clips won this matchup a month ago, but how much of that was the result of a gimpy Khris Middleton playing 19 non-impactful minutes (he missed all four of his shots and committed four fouls while his Bucks were -16 with him on the floor)?
Lillard and Antetokounmpo attempted 32 free throws in that road game — if they are getting what they want at that level again to open the second half of the season, there’s a decent chance this game isn’t competitive late.
Pick: Bucks -1.5 (-114, FanDuel)
Heading into the NBA All-Star Break, here are our updated Power Rankings from @KyleSoppePFN ⤵ pic.twitter.com/w1G13bGz9w
— PFSN (@PFN365) February 17, 2025
