The Boston Celtics are the defending champions, but things will be more difficult for them this year than last. The two teams in this Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks game are a big reason why.

We can address the Finals odds boards another time – maybe with the money we stand to cash from betting this clash of Eastern Conference titans tonight!

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks

In a perfect world, we get a matchup like this with all things equal, but that’s not the case here and has resulted in me pivoting my lean just a touch. The Bucks hosted the Magic last night and are just 5-13 ATS this season when holding a rest disadvantage, something that will be the case since the Cavaliers had Saturday off (11-3 ATS with the rest advantage).

That’s interesting, and it’s enough to back me off of the full game line, but I like how these statistical profiles lined up for the home team – we just have to get a little creative in the betting of it.

Over their past 10 games, the Bucks have increased their opponent turnover rate by more than 1.5 percentage points, a significant sign of growth that I’m buying into as they continue to hammer their regular rotation into place.

Development in that regard coincides with a run from the Cavaliers that has featured some looseness (by their lofty standards) with the ball:

• Last 14 games: 12.1% turnover rate
• Previous 20 games: 10.5% turnover rate

Those aren’t high numbers, but they are trending in a moderately concerning direction and when you marry that with Milwaukee’s trajectory, I’m tempted to put stock in it.

Another home game tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/d0QZD8DXcR

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) March 9, 2025

It’s only natural to go back and look at past meetings. In doing so, you’ll see a perfect 3-0 mark for the Cavaliers, but how much weight should we realistically put into those results?

Two of those victories came by a single possession and were played in November, while the other was a contest sans Damian Lillard (starters not named Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 15 points on 6-19 FG in 81 minutes).

In fact, you could argue that Milwaukee supporters should be optimistic from their time spent sharing a court with the Cavs this season – their one matchup with both Antetokounmpo and Lillard active saw their dynamic duo combine for 75 points on 54.9% shooting.

Yes, the back-to-back nature of this game adds a wrinkle and I adjusted accordingly, but I don’t think you should overreact. The Bucks haven’t exactly been highly taxed over the past few weeks, something that I think is as impactful, if not more, than them taking the court last night.

Prior to playing Orlando, Milwaukee had played seven games in 14 days, with their most recent contest being a 30-point win over the Mavericks that didn’t exactly force them to overextend.

Milwaukee has been an elite first-half team and just ordinary in second halves. I’ll go ahead and lean into that trend tonight, with the thought being that, in betting it this way, we avoid the running out of gas should that occur in the late stages of the contest.

Pick: Bucks to win the first half