At first blush, you might not have interest in this Chicago Bulls vs. Houston Rockets game, but with the visitors playing better ball of late (four straight wins) and holding a rest advantage as they embark on a six-game road trip, could there be more than meets the eye in this matchup?
Chicago Bulls vs. Houston Rockets Best Bet
If you’re a big Coby White fan, you’re loving March so far. The former Tar Heel is pumping in 29.3 points per game this month (49.6% FG) and appears comfortable as the lead dog in Chicago, but is he ready to do the heavy lifting against a playoff team with an elite defense?
We saw him in this spot less than two weeks ago against the Cavaliers and, after making two of his first three shots, he converted just seven of 20 shots over his next 37 minutes. Cleveland dared him to make plays for his teammates (seven assists, he’s averaging three per game in other all other contests this month) and won the game by 22 points.
I think we could see the Rockets do something similar and that gives me little optimism when it comes to Chicago’s offensive production. Houston allows the lowest assist rate this season, something that speaks to their ability to help and recover at an elite level. If they enter this game with the understanding that they are going to force the ball out of White’s hands, this versatile defense is operating with the knowledge that their perimeter closeouts are going to be counted on heavily in this spot.
This could get ugly for Chicago.
Even without Amen Thompson (ankle), this is an athletic unit that should be effective against an awfully concentrated Bulls offense. Nikola Vucevic is still working his way back from a calf injury that cost him two weeks (two games back, totals: 18 points in 47 minutes) and after him, where is this team going to go for offense?
Not only do the Bulls lack options, they lack outs. The Rockets are the top rebounding team in the Association and allow opponents to jack up triples at the third-lowest rate. In other words, Chicago lacks the talent to generate great looks and Houston’s defense plays in a very optimal way.
Chicago has been a bottom-10 defense all season long and with injuries and inconsistencies hurting the depth of this Houston offense, I think we can pretty safely assume Alperen Sengun’s fingerprints will be all over this game.
Alperen Sengun on Jabari Smith. pic.twitter.com/cqCa6shtrX
— Leopoldo (@DeportesRBZ) March 12, 2025
It’s good to see him praise Jabari Smith Jr. as it reflects his confidence in his teammates. Fred Van Vleet is probably limited tonight, if not out altogether, and that only piles more usage on the plate of the do-it-all center. The Bulls haven’t scared ball handlers all season long (only the Jazz have a worse opponent assist-to-turnover rate this season) and that positions us to potentially see video game numbers in this spot.
I’m not sure there’s a wrong way to play it, but I’m less confident in his scoring upside than his ability to function as the straw that stirs this drink. I’m isolating his rebounds-and-assists line with the thought being that he will be even more in charge of dictating things now (second night of a back-to-back and around injuries/absences), but again, if you want to include his scoring or even bet him to triple-double tonight, I’m not going to look at you sideways.
Pick: Rockets -8.5 (-112, DraftKings)
Pick: Sengun over 15.5 rebounds-plus-assists (-125, DraftKings)
Sprinkle: Sengun triple-double (+1500, DraftKings)