Form? Who needs form? We’ve got a Chicago Bulls vs. Orlando Magic game featuring a home team that has lost 11 of its past 16 games — and yet, it’s playing better than the opposition.
I don’t expect future generations to remember this game as a work of art, but could you pay for dinner tomorrow night by betting on it? The door might be open if you dig a little deeper into this otherwise unappealing matchup.
Chicago Bulls vs. Orlando Magic Prediction
If you’ve been following these daily articles, you’ve made a good amount of money fading the Magic under one simple premise — asking a team built like this to cover any two-plus possession spread is borderline insane behavior.
That’s why I backed the Toronto Raptors against them twice to start this month and cashed Toronto, the Portland Trail Blazers, and Utah Jazz moneyline tickets in the weeks prior.
The time has come, friends. Tonight, we go to war with the Magic.
I don’t know if I’m trying to convince myself of this angle or not, but the research backs the home team tonight, and I’m nothing if not consistent in how I build my betting cards.
Am I excited about watching a game where my hard-earned money relies on this offense? Not even a little.
Am I stubborn enough to trust the numbers over my desires as a basketball fan? Yes.
Tonight, we get another data point for the age-old question: does a bad offense score against a porous defense, or are bad offenses so bad that they can’t even score on a disinterested unit?
In a league that generally favors offense, we now have the privilege of backing one of the worst shooting teams in recent memory. On the bright side, Orlando has two high-usage stars, and that might be enough against a turnstile defense in Chicago.
Bulls Defensive Ratings
- Last 13 games: 120.4 points allowed per 100 possessions
- 13 games prior: 115.2 points per 100 possessions
- 13 games before that: 112.5 points per 100 possessions
- 13 games prior: 115.2 points per 100 possessions
Paolo Banchero since All-Star break:
29.6 PPG
6.3 RPG
4.9 APG
60.5% TSHe’s 2nd in the NBA in scoring in that span. pic.twitter.com/8qFSLAwg44
— StatMamba (@StatMamba) March 5, 2025
I’m not asking the Magic to function like the peak Golden State Warriors, I just need them to be slightly better than their own low bar in a favorable spot. This season, when Orlando produces even half a standard deviation above its season offensive rating in terms of points per possession, it has won 18 of 20 games.
OK, you’ve got my attention.
That’s an impressive record in a spot we expect to be in play tonight. The two losses? Completely explainable — one came on the final night of a three-road-games-in-four-days stretch, and the other? A 56-point gem from Stephen Curry.
Tonight isn’t a bad schedule spot, and to my knowledge, the Bulls don’t have a Curry-level threat. If you want to stop there and load up on the moneyline, I wouldn’t blame you. But if I’m going to make the rare decision to back Orlando, I’m going all in.
With Nikola Vučević (calf) unlikely to play and Orlando ranking first in the NBA at limiting opponent 3-point attempts (38% field-goal percentage), where exactly are the Bulls’ points coming from?
Paolo Banchero hung 41 points on the Raptors on Tuesday night (14-20 FG) and has gotten to the free-throw line at least eight times in seven straight games. He’s not perfect, but his upside should be enough in this spot.
Franz Wagner is nothing if not aggressive (17+ FGA in all seven games post-All-Star break). That might be enough against a Chicago defense that struggles to deter anyone with even the slightest conviction in getting to the rim.
By no means do I expect this to be a “fun” game for the casual fan.
But as a bettor, I define a “fun” game as one that I exit with more money than I entered with, and in that regard, we have a rare opportunity to have “fun” with the Magic tonight.
Pick: Magic -6.5 (-110, DraftKings)
