This is the first of two matchups between the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers over the next week. With these teams currently slotted to face each other in the first round of the playoffs, these contests carry plenty of weight.
So how can we profit from this meeting? I’ve got you covered.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers Best Bets
The Pacers are on the second night of a back-to-back, which is typically a factor this time of year. However, after allowing 40 points in the second quarter against the Chicago Bulls last night, no Indiana player logged more than 25 minutes. Because of that, I’m not putting too much weight on their fatigue level.
Tyrese Haliburton (hip) is the key injury to watch. He sat out last night, but sportsbooks have lines available for him tonight, which suggests optimism about his availability. With two days off after this game, I’m cautiously expecting him to play in some capacity.
Now that we’ve covered the logistics, let’s get into the numbers.
With two explosive point guards, it’s no surprise that both teams rank inside the top 10 in pace this season. I expect a fast tempo, especially with both defenses ranking outside the top 10 in efficiency. These teams win with offense, and that style leads to maximizing possessions.
Nothing complicated there.
We’ve seen two Bucks-Pacers matchups this season, and as expected, points piled up. The Bucks hit 30 points in six of eight quarters, while the Pacers scored 35 or more in three different quarters. Any team can have a hot shooting stretch, but this wasn’t a fluke—both teams attempted 90-plus shots in each game. That kind of volume is exactly what I’m looking to bet on.
The Bucks have both scored and allowed at least 1.1 points per possession in eight of their past 15 games. The Pacers have done the same in 10 of their past 14. There’s no reason to believe either team will suddenly lock in defensively tonight, which has me favoring a high-scoring game—whether Haliburton plays or not (though I’d obviously prefer he does).
I’m hedging my bets a bit for this game, but I think that’s the smart approach. If you want to lock in both plays now, go for it. But I believe the better move is to take the spread now and wait for Haliburton’s official status before betting the total.
Sportsbooks posting Haliburton props suggests they expect him to play, which means the current spread is likely the best we’ll get for Milwaukee. If he’s ruled out, we’d probably have to give back a point or two of value.
Who has beaten Milwaukee over the past month?
- Feb. 25 at Houston: 2nd-best defense this season
- March 8 vs. Orlando: 3rd-best defense this season
- March 9 vs. Cleveland: 6th-best defense this season
The Pacers rank 18th in defensive efficiency, and that number is slightly inflated by strong performances against the Pelicans and Nets. I’m not any more concerned about this defense than I was a year ago (24th).
Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are on the injury report, but there’s little doubt about their availability tonight. Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.8 points on 59.6% shooting with 11.2 rebounds in March. Lillard’s shooting percentages are up across the board from last season, and he’s on pace for a career-best steals rate.
Milwaukee’s biggest flaw is rebounding. The Bucks have been out-rebounded in all five games this month, and that could be an issue in the playoffs.
But not against the Pacers.
Indiana is 15-23 when winning the rebound battle and 20-5 otherwise. That stat might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense. When you crash the boards, you risk leaving yourself vulnerable in transition—an area where the Pacers already struggle.
I don’t expect Indiana to be aggressive on the glass, but even if they are, it may not matter. History suggests that approach puts them at risk on the other end, and I’ll take that trade-off.
I don’t see this game slowing down, and if it does, it’s probably because Milwaukee is in control. That logic makes me think there’s a better chance both of these bets hit than both lose, so I’m investing with confidence.
Pick: Bucks -3 (-110, DraftKings)
Pick: Over 233.5 (-110, FanDuel)