The Oklahoma City Thunder profile as the best team in the league by just about any metric, and I have no reason to pivot from that belief. They own the league’s best defense (courtesy of the highest steal rate, something that fuels their offense), significantly better than the version of this team that ranked fourth a year ago. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can get to his spot against anyone on this planet, Jalen Williams has continued to progress, and now … now they are getting healthy. Chet Holmgren was a difference-maker last season and could be what puts them over the top this summer if what we saw from him pre-injury is the version we get the rest of the way.
A 15-game win streak to open the season is a good way to send expectations into orbit, and while they’ve had little blips in the three months since, there’s no real reason to doubt what this team is capable of given the star power on its roster. In addition to Donovan Mitchell’s highlight dunks and Evan Mobley’s growth that has this team currently holding the league’s top offense, Darius Garland is playing at an elite level and is the driving force behind the Cleveland Cavaliers’ league-leading assist-to-turnover rate.
The Celtics went through a struggle, by their lofty standard in December, posting an 8-5 record that saw them lose home games to the Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers. Payton Pritchard’s scoring is up over 40% per game from a season ago and he has shown the ability to lead the second unit while thriving when his role is increased. If this team can stay healthy, they could enter the postseason as the betting favorite, a title they entered the season with.
Behind Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson, this is the NBA’s second-best offense, which makes them a real threat to run through the Eastern Conference. They won’t be favored over the top two teams, but their ceiling is just as high on a nightly basis, and that gives them hope. We saw them flex those muscles with nine straight wins bridging December and January, a run that doesn’t happen without maybe the best role player in the league in Josh Hart. The former Villanova Wildcat is having the best shooting season of his career, and if that growth is here to stay, this offense is going to be a near-impossible cover, even for the elite East teams that check in ahead of them in these rankings.
Jalen Green lit the Memphis Grizzlies up for 42 points on Jan. 13, but Memphis has been a different team since, and they are showing no signs of slowing down. Ja Morant’s athleticism makes their offense as dynamic as any in transition, and Jaren Jackson Jr.’s (1.5+ blocks and 3PM for a seventh straight season) versatility makes them a tough matchup for anyone on both ends of the floor. Jaylen Wells is the lesser-known impact player on this roster, but the rookie has accepted a regular role and makes winning plays on a nightly basis. If he can continue to grow as his first season progresses, he will give this team an added level of depth that could prove critical as the season wears on.
The Denver Nuggets don’t win ball games the same way that most teams do in 2025, and that’s just fine. Nikola Jokić has this team again looking like a real threat despite the lowest 3-point rate in the league for a second straight season. Their 11-10 start is a distant memory at this point, and Russell Westbrook’s production has been a welcomed sight for those worried about this roster’s depth. The defense remains a concern (third-worst opponent assist-to-turnover rate), but we’ve seen Jokić elevate this offense at such a level that a flaw like that is muted. This isn’t the best roster in the league, but they have the best player, and that is enough to scare any opponent on any night.
A quiet deadline shouldn’t be viewed as a sign of weakness for the Houston Rockets — the best offensive rebounding team in the league by a wide margin is poised for an extended run this summer. The on-court product is often greater than the individuals involved, and that is when special runs occur. Amen Thompson’s development is well ahead of schedule, and while Green can be a sporadic player at times, Alperen Şengün’s versatility gives this offense the ability to more than support its hard-nosed defense. Houston covering point spreads at a near 60% clip tells you how surprising their success has been up to this point — it’s time to change our perception.
Luka Dončić. It really is that simple. Show Time has a new conductor, and the rest of the season will be an exercise in how quickly this team can adjust to a different offense, even if it’s far more optimal for how the game is played today. The Los Angeles Lakers have rounded into form after a 2-7 stretch around Thanksgiving (2024-25: 10th-ranked offense, sixth best in transition), and they are clearly banking on that continuing with not only the Dončić deal but also by sacrificing Dalton Knecht and future picks in the Mark Williams trade. This is now a team with pretty clear roles and less mandated usage on LeBron James’ plate heading into the postseason.
Early last season, Tyrese Haliburton looked like an All-NBA guard before struggling down the stretch (40% from 3 pre-All-Star break; 30.3% afterward). His shooting and team success were tied at the hip last season, and that’s been even more evident this year. However, his shooting has been more stable, allowing the Pacers to recover from a 10-15 start. It can get ugly (37-point loss in Boston, 30-point defeat in Paris against San Antonio, and, most recently, a 23-point loss in Portland), but the upside is evident with four 15+ point scorers and Hailburton improving his assist-to-turnover rate for a third straight season. Earning home-court advantage for a playoff series is certainly possible, but they are one losing streak from falling into the play-in tier.
From March 4-17, they get the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks twice in addition to the 76ers (not on a back-to-back) and Minnesota Timberwolves. If they survive that stretch, they are in good shape. This ranking assumes ups and downs during that stretch, understanding that a streak in either direction could impact their ranking by a handful of spots.
Kevin Durant remained in town while Jusuf Nurkić was shipped to Charlotte, a move that made plenty of sense as he’s been assuming a reserve role that he wasn’t thrilled with.
The Phoenix Suns ripped off seven straight wins in the early going, but they’ve largely struggled with consistency ever since, and that has them middling in the standings.
The metrics like them more than their record suggests, and I’m inclined to believe them. Counting out raw talent like this is difficult to do, especially with their favorable post-All-Star break schedule that could kickstart a late run.
Their status as an above-average team isn’t safe, but they are there for this snapshot in time.
The Los Angeles Clippers entered the season with a 35.5-win projection, a number that is likely to be far too low when all is said and done. They’ve been able to handle their business against lesser competition while struggling against the upper echelon — not an ideal résumé when the postseason comes, but given this league’s top-heavy nature, it can be good enough in the playoffs.
They own a bottom-five turnover rate and are beholden to Kawhi Leonard’s maintenance schedule, two traits that make them difficult to be too bullish on. That said, if you’re buying Norman Powell’s age-31 breakout to be sticky for the next four months, this is a team that can thrive in a series setting.
After being one of the top stories of the NBA last season, the Timberwolves aren’t in as good of a spot as they were last season. The defeats have come in bunches (four losing streaks of at least three games), and the Julius Randle (currently battling a groin injury) fit isn’t what this team had hoped.
Anthony Edwards’ average shot distancing away from the rim has led to efficiency in terms of his shooting percentage, but at what cost? It eliminates, at some level, the pressure he puts on the rim and thus the looks his teammates get. Ant-Man is capable of putting the team on his back at any moment, but the playoff stability scares me with his assist-to-turnover rate dropping off a cliff.
Donte DiVincenzo (toe) remains out, and he may hold the key. After a sluggish start to his Minnesota tenure, he had found his rhythm; if he can add gravity to this offense when he returns, another deep playoff is possible.
Only time will tell if the faith is rewarded, but Kuzma is four years Khris Middleton’s junior and has a strong offensive-rebounding season on his résumé. Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green are two X-factor types that can stretch defenses and unlock the upside that makes this team dangerous (remember that 8-1 run in January?).
Trading for Kyle Kuzma reflects just how confident this team is in its Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard foundation — they felt it was more advantageous to make a lateral skill move in the name of a healthier body than to try to upgrade in a significant way. Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green are two X-factor types that can stretch defenses and unlock the upside that makes this team dangerous (remember that 8-1 run in January?).
The Timberwolves won 16 more games in their first season with Jimmy Butler than they did the previous year, the 76ers won 11 of 14 games immediately following his debut for them in 2019, and the Miami Heat went to the playoffs in each of his first five seasons in town after missing the postseason in three of the previous five years. Butler’s 3-point shooting has improved over the past three seasons and that is non-negotiable; it has to stick. Draymond Green is a critical piece to how this offense functions, and Jonathan Kuminga’s (ankle, nearing return) ability to slash provides a needed dimension, but Curry is going to need someone in addition to Buddy Hield to at least have the potential to garner some perimeter defensive attention.
The splash of the deadline was the Dončić trade, and there’s not much more to be said on that front. We broke down his impact on the franchise as a whole and how James feels about the move — it’s a move that should have a positive impact both in the short and long term.
The Davis era in Dallas looks like a clunky fit from the outside, but underestimating a motivated Kyrie Irving is dangerous. Their rest-of-season schedule is manageable, and the potential to play inside-out is unique by 2025 standards — but this team doesn’t appear to me, or statistically profiles, like a team that will be playing past the first round of the postseason.
Anthony Edwards’ average shot distancing away from the rim has led to efficiency in terms of his shooting percentage, but at what cost? It eliminates, at some level, the pressure he puts on the rim and thus the looks his teammates get. Ant-Man is capable of putting the team on his back at any moment, but the playoff stability scares me with his assist-to-turnover rate dropping off a cliff.
Donte DiVincenzo (toe) remains out, and he may hold the key. After a sluggish start to his Minnesota tenure, he had found his rhythm; if he can add gravity to this offense when he returns, another deep playoff is possible.
The Sacramento Kings were a top-10 assist-to-turnover team before trading De’Aaron Fox and now are a team with plenty of questions. Maybe this construction can work with a uniquely gifted Sabonis pulling the strings, but I’m more of the belief that we’ve already seen the best version of the Kings this season. They play seven of nine games on the road from Feb. 10 through March 5, a stretch that I expect to teach us about the immediate upside (and downside) of this new-look roster.
Orlando Magic's offensive ranking has tanked, even by their standards, this season; if they can just get out of the bottom third of the league, this is as good of a bet to fill the annual “no one wants to play them” mantra as any.
Orlando owns the highest block rate in the league, and that defensive tenacity can elevate this team to a truly competitive level if Paolo Banchero or Franz Wagner can knock down triples at even a league-average rate.
The move of the deadline with the greatest long-term impact was the San Antonio Spurs dealing for Fox. In 2026. They’ve put themselves too far back now, though they are one of the few teams that I think would benefit from an NBA play-in tournament experience, potentially even winning a high-pressure game. In Fox’s debut, they hung 126 points on the Hawks, dishing out 36 assists against just 10 turnovers, an offensive structure that, with Victor Wembanyama as the fulcrum, can succeed at an awfully high level. With The Alien in the middle, it’s no surprise that this team allows the lowest percentage of opponent points to come from the stripe, and with nothing coming easy, they are more than capable of playing with any team in this league.
Gone is the Butler headache, thus opening the door for this team to focus on who is interested in playing for this team. The lead role looks good on Tyler Herro (over 20 PPG for a fourth straight season and a career-high pace in FG%), and Bam Adebayo is a great sidekick who is under contract for another three seasons.
Miami currently holds the lowest block rate in the league, but with rookie Kel’el Ware (15th overall pick) seeing his role expand with time, it’s not hard to envision them trending closer to the league average in that regard.
Asking Miami to stay out of the play-in tournament, however, might be a tall task, especially with a post-All-Star skid looking possible (Toronto Raptors, Bucks, Hawks, Hawks, Pacers, and New York Knicks).
The top-heavy Eastern Conference is likely to make the postseason trip a short one regardless of the Heat’s seeding. The remaining time left on the calendar this year will serve as critical information as to this roster’s readiness to join the Pacers and Bucks as a member of the second tier in the East, thus capable of advancing to the second round.
The Detroit Pistons are the best fast-break team in the league, not a surprise given that they ranked fifth a season ago but impressive with Jaden Ivey out for the season. Cade Cunningham has ascended to superstardom, though he will have to fix his turnover problem (back-to-back double-digit turnover games late in January).
He’s more than capable of playing at an elite level, even on the turnover front (38 assists against seven turnovers to open February), though he will need to be that version of himself regularly if this Detroit team is truly going to level up.
Detroit has held the fifth pick in consecutive drafts, but the returns have been limited at best from those selections (Ronald Holland II and Ausar Thompson). There is pedigree and upside on this roster, though accessing it in a truly impactful way might be 12 months away.
The version of the 76ers that showed up and beat the Mavericks on Tuesday, Feb. 4 (62 points on 55.6% shooting, 23 assists, and 15 rebounds for Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid) remains enticing, but how many times a year can we count on that?
They are currently the worst rebounding team in the league, a flaw that gets solved pretty easily if No. 21 is suiting up on a semi-consistent basis.
Even if we get the optimal version of this team at the perfect time, can they make it through the marathon that is the NBA playoffs? At this point, the answer is definitively no. The race for the sixth seed could be an interesting one down the stretch in the East, and a fully powered 76ers team could close in style (Heat, Wizards, Hawks, and Bulls to finish the regular season)
Jalen Johnson’s (torn labrum) fourth season ending after 36 games hurts their ability to make any noise this season, though it can’t be forgotten that his 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists will be counted on heavily next season.
Dyson Daniels has proven to be a tremendous acquisition this offseason (he already has more points this season than he did in two with the Pelicans), as he adds offensive potential with defensive playmaking. If Zaccharie Risacher can maintain some of the sparks we’ve seen (he lit up the Cavaliers on Jan. 30 for 30 points on 11-of-14 shooting), this season will be labeled as a success for Atlanta, no matter what the final record is.
The Bulls moved on from LaVine during the trade deadline, but they held onto Nikola Vučević, an interesting move given that his career year would have likely returned as good a package as we’ve seen for the big throughout his career.
The Celtics are the clear top team in terms of 3-point rate, but the Bulls are next up, and that analytically sound approach is encouraging long-term. This is an interesting collection of pieces that, by themselves, carry an upside (Coby White has shown out for weeks at a time, Josh Giddey owns a unique skill set), but as a collective, are going to struggle to post a winning record.
The Raptors were never thought to be a serious threat this season (just ask Jakob Poeltl) despite having some interesting pieces in place, and that has proven to be accurate. They’ve competed hard over the past month behind strong play from Scottie Barnes, and that is at least encouraging for #WeTheNorth — his shooting stroke needs work, but his versatility is at the level where he can/should be labeled a major part of this rebuild.
With the play-in tournament likely out of the question, not to mention not a priority, we could see a repeat of last season down the stretch (2-19 in their 21 games coming home) to accelerate their roster reconstruction.
The acquisition of Brandon Ingram gives them two long-term assets on the wing, a spot on the court that is becoming more and more important with each passing season. Immanuel Quickley signed on for the rebuild this summer — this team might be closer to that third tier of Eastern Conference team than their record suggests.
The Blazers are having the type of season that their fan base wants: show signs of a competitive fire but lose enough games to remain in the lottery. You could argue that they’ve been the best team in the league over the past three weeks, and their backcourt has enough upside to sell this team as one headed in the right direction.
That’s not to say that Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe are perfect prospects (far from it), but we saw them score 40 of 102 points in a January win over Charlotte, adding 14 rebounds and making eight of 13 two-point attempts in the process.
Their youth holds the worst assist-to-turnover rate in the league, and that will hinder winning if not corrected, but all things considered, Portland’s fanbase should be cautiously encouraged.
Outside of a three-game stretch in the middle of January where the Charlotte Hornets rattled off three consecutive wins (the since-traded Williams in those games: 63 points, 45 rebounds, and 10 blocks + steals), Charlotte has struggled to put together four straight solid quarters. Brandon Miller certainly looked the part of a professional bucket-getter when healthy, but his development is going to be stunted due to the season-ending wrist surgery.
The Hornets appeared poised to lose at least two-thirds of their games for a third consecutive season.
Back-to-back wins over the Rockets to open February was a surprising result and, given how things have looked for the season up to this point, is likely to be labeled as a season highlight.
Cameron Johnson is having a career year and has established himself as a feared marksman, but until this offense shows discipline (inside the bottom 10 in effective FG% for a second straight season, due in large part to shot selection), the ceiling is going to be significantly capped as the lone Atlantic team without an identified franchise centerpiece.
Injuries have made a team that was already oddly constructed to begin with an even more difficult evaluation, but they’ve underwhelmed by any measure you want to look at. After a 2-0 start, New Orleans dropped 29 of 32 games and effectively ended a season that came with hope before New Year’s Day.
Trey Murphy III’s explosive season after inking a $112 million extension in October is great to see — only time will tell how this team builds around him and the other stars on this roster, but they at least have one piece they feel good about as a foundational option.
That said, the bottom three defenses in the NBA landed in the final three spots in these power rankings; until that changes, elevating into the middle third is more of a pipedream than a realistic goal.
The Ingram trade (along with the lesser publicized move sending away Daniel Theis for cash) showed that they are willing to be patient with this process — the exact blueprint remains to be seen, but there is talent on this roster and some potential in their future assets.
The Jazz opened the season led in scoring by a different player in four straight games (and in six of their first seven), a level of depth that can have promise if directed properly. Unfortunately, that talent has been wasted by a lack of gained opportunities — Utah owns the highest turnover rate on one side and the lowest steal rate on the other.
Keyonte George impressed as a rookie and has been better in Year 2, giving this franchise hope for the future of their backcourt. There’s some young talent on this roster and they’ll add to it this offseason.
The Wizards are tearing everything down, something that was driven home at the deadline. Well, that and the fact that they seem destined to finish under 20 wins for a second consecutive season for the first time in franchise history.
Alex Sarr showcased some of the promise you want to see from the second overall pick in December (13.8 points on 45.5% shooting from 3 with 6.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in nine games), but there is a lot of learning for the 19-year-old to do before he impacts winning at a reasonable level.
Bilal Coulibaly might also be a piece to move forward with (seventh overall pick in 2023), but there is plenty of roster shuffling that will be done before Washington is deserving of our attention.
