Here is everything you need to know, from current betting odds to DFS picks and fantasy football players to play, included in our Navy vs. SMU prediction.
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Navy vs. SMU Betting Preview
- Spread
SMU (-13.5) - Moneyline
SMU (-540); Navy (+420) - Over/Under
58 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX - Predicted weather at kickoff
71 degrees, clear, 9 mph winds
A Friday night clash between somewhat unique college football offenses in the American Athletic Conference? Sign us all the way up. However, don’t sign us up for some of the current betting lines.
Other than their defeat to an ascending Memphis team in Week 2, Navy hasn’t lost by more than one score this season and head into the game fresh off a trouncing of conference comrades, Tulsa.
Meanwhile, the Midshipmen are 3-2 against the spread, and the Mustangs of Southern Methodist are 1-4 against the spread this season. This isn’t Sonny Dykes’ SMU. Although their offensive firepower remains strong, their deployment might not be enough to completely obliterate Navy, merely sink them in Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
The over/under should seem an easy choice, given that SMU has covered the 58-point line comfortably every game this year. However, they’re 1-4 against the over, while Navy is 2-3. All that remains is the moneyline, but before we get to that prediction, let’s look at the fantasy plays for this Navy Vs. SMU clash.
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
- QB Tanner Mordecai, SMU ($10,700)
- QB Tai Lavatai, Navy ($7,500)
- RB Tre Siggers, SMU ($8,700)
- RB Maquel Haywood, Navy ($5,100)
- RB Dabo Fofana, Navy ($6,800)
- RB Vincent Terrell II, Navy ($7,000)
- WR Rashee Rice, SMU ($10,000)
- WR Jake Bailey, SMU ($7,500)
- WR Jordan Kerley, SMU ($6000)
- WR Beau Corrales, SMU ($5,800)
- WR Kelvontay Dixon, SMU ($5,700)
- WR Mark Walker, Navy ($5,300)
- WR Nathan Kent, Navy ($5,500)
On a night where the high-scoring UTSA Roadrunners team takes on a particularly porous Florida International Golden Panthers defense, you’ve got to pick your players from this Navy vs. SMU matchup carefully.
It might be tempting to take a chance on Tanner Mordecai, you might think you can rack up some points on Tai Lavatai’s rushing capability, but these two are simply not going to touch what Frank Harris will score this Friday night.
SMU wide receiver Rashee Rice is the safest bet available in this Navy vs. SMU clash. The highly rated 2023 NFL Draft prospect has been the go-to guy for Mordecai in the Mustangs offense this season.
Currently averaging 21.00 fantasy points per game, there’s been just one game so far where he’s not broken the 100-yard mark. He’s good for a minimum of six catches per game, with two double-digit snag games this year. Although he didn’t log a touchdown last week, it’s been 12 months since he last went more than one game without.
One Navy player potentially worth taking a shot on is running back Vincent Terrell II. The 5’8″, 170-pound back carried the rock a ludicrous 17 times against Tulsa, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and scoring his first rushing touchdown of the season.
He’s also showcased a threat as a receiver, taking three receptions for 114 yards and a score against East Carolina earlier in the season. Terrell and true freshman Nathan Kent are the only Midshipmen other than QB Lavatai averaging double-digit fantasy points this season.
Prediction for Navy vs. SMU
It’s easy to look at this Navy vs. SMU game and automatically chalk it up as comfortable Mustangs win. SMU has won the last two matchups between the two AAC rivals and has won three of the last four.
Meanwhile, Navy had a dicey start to the season, losing to FCS Delaware before being trounced in the division by Memphis.
Furthermore, SMU has the statistically most unstoppable offense in the AAC. The Mustangs average just over 500 yards per game, topping the conference and ranking ninth nationally.
That success, of course, is predicated on Mordecai, Rice, and the passing game, where they rank fourth nationally. Not that Siggers has been a slouch in the run game — he’s found the end zone four times — but their offensive identity is very much centered on the aerial attack.
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That prays very much on the defensive weakness of the Navy unit. The Midshipmen have allowed a conference-worst 9.2 yards per pass attempt this season. As a result, they’ve allowed the third most passing yards per game of any AAC team.
That said, they’ve only allowed nine touchdowns through the air this season, and that could be key to keeping this game close.
If Navy does frustrate the SMU passing offense, they can take it to the Mustangs by running the clock with their triple-option offense. The Mustangs have been susceptible to ground attacks this year, allowing 176.40 rushing yards per game, 4.34 yards per carry, and 10 rushing touchdowns. Three of those came in the crushing defeat to UCF last week.
While there’s a definite roadmap for Navy to pull off a win, the presence of Rice in this SMU offense should prove too much for the Midshipmen to handle. Take the Mustangs on the moneyline, but I’m not sold on SMU against the spread or their ability to hammer the over.
Prediction: SMU 31 Navy 23