The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris’ fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Will Harris find himself back inside the top-12 this season, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Najee Harris’ 2023 Fantasy Projection
After leading the NFL in touches as a rookie and finishing third in PPR scoring, Harris was likely due for some regression in 2022 as the Steelers’ offense was a bit of an unknown with a change at QB. Would Harris see anywhere near the same volume, especially in the target department, and if not, how much would this impact his fantasy value?
Unfortunately, things were not so good for Harris, especially to start the season. Between Weeks 1-8, Harris was the RB23 and 29th in points per game at 10.9 (PPR). The offense was struggling mightily and sat at 2-6 before their bye.
But we also have to remember that Harris was dealing with a Lisfranc injury he sustained during training camp, which required Harris to wear a plate in his cleat. It likely impacted him for the majority of the first part of the season.
Yet, Harris finished the season much stronger, and it seemed to go a bit under the radar for most fantasy managers. From Weeks 10-17, Harris was the RB8 overall and ninth in points per game with 15.3 (PPR). He was tied for second in rushing attempts (141) and averaged 20.6 opportunities.
Add in Week 18, and Harris averaged 20 opportunities, 87.8 rushing yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game while sitting 14th in routes ran. He had five separate weeks of 20-plus carries in the second half of the season after a whopping zero in the first eight games. That’s a level of volume reserved for only a handful of backs.
While the efficiency could have been better, Harris was sixth in opportunity share (70%) and eighth in total touches through the first 17 weeks of the season. The Steelers’ offensive line was brutal, and it showed up in Harris’ stats, as he sat 52nd in yards per touch and 63rd in points per opportunity.
2023 Should Be an Improvement for Harris Following an Offseason of Upgrades
But 2023 could and should be different. For one, Kenny Pickett is heading into Year 2, which should improve the offense’s overall efficiency. The OL has been completely retooled with Isaac Seumalo, 2023 first-round pick Brodrick Jones, and Nate Herbig added.
Plus, Pittsburgh drafted a unicorn from Georgia — 6’7″ and 270-pound TE Darnell Washington — who is arguably the best run-blocking TE in the last decade.
While nowhere near the Eagles’ unit up front, Pittsburgh will have, at minimum, a league-average OL, which would be a step in the right direction. The only true sticking point is OC Matt Canada, who, despite the vocal cries by some Steelers fans, remains in his position for 2023.
My initial run of baseline median projections has Harris bouncing back from 2022 and finding a middle ground from his rookie year. While the targets will not be there as they did with Ben Roethlisberger, Harris should remain one of the busiest running backs you can draft in fantasy football, with approximately 260 carries for 1,050-1,100 yards and 7-8 touchdowns.
As a receiving option, Harris comes in with roughly 40-45 receptions for 265-285 yards and two more scores as a solid high-floor RB2 with RB1 potential.
Should You Draft Najee Harris This Year?
What a player costs on draft day is the most significant determining factor in whether or not they are draftable for fantasy football. Does a player make you better without taking on unnecessary risk while not setting you up for potential pitfalls down the line?
When it comes to Harris, his ADP is in a much better spot than last year when I was personally fading him as Harris was going in the late-first or early-second round. Now, Harris is coming off the board as roughly the RB10-RB15 with an ADP of around 25-30 in drafts, making him a late-third-round selection.
This is far more palatable for me. Especially when Harris is coming off two rounds later and doesn’t have a well-known and publicized injury that will hamper his usage and effectiveness. Harris is in the same value range on draft day as Rhamondre Stevenson, Travis Etienne, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, and Aaron Jones.
Based on how I tend to draft, this will be a range where I am heavily targeting running backs after going likely WR-WR to start and then adding one to two high-floor, high-upside RB2s that will be in the low-end RB1/high RB2 range all year.
That’s all I need out of a running back for fantasy football. I don’t need someone who will win me a week like Christian McCaffrey or Bijan Robinson. I just want a stable volume floor with upside that can, at minimum, match my opponents or have a slight edge while I stack more upside at WR, TE, and even QB.
If Harris is the one of this group that ends up with the best ADP, odds are I will have several shares of his this fall as he gets Pittsburgh’s rushing game back to where it should be. Assuming Harris can carry over the second-half efficiency into 2023, along with his volume, he is primed to outperform expectations and even conservative projections like mine. Sign me up.