Traditionally, we often see young players improve their fantasy football points per game from year to year. Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris, however, has gone in the other direction. With a completely new quarterback room and offensive coordinator change, can Harris return to being an RB1 in fantasy this year?
Should You Select Najee Harris at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 72nd Overall (RB24)
- 2023 Recap: Harris has seen a decline in his fantasy production over the past two seasons, dropping from 17.7 fantasy points per game in 2021 to just 11.5 last year. His receiving work has significantly decreased, with his target share falling from 14.5% in 2021 to 7.9% in 2023.
- Changes in the Steelers’ Offense: The Steelers have completely revamped their quarterback room and offensive coordinator. With Russell Wilson starting and Justin Fields as a potential midseason replacement, the offense should be more effective, potentially leading to more scoring opportunities for Harris.
- Rushing Efficiency: Despite the overall decline in his fantasy production, Harris had his best year as a runner in 2023. His 5.5% rate of rushes for 15+ yards was the 10th-highest in the league. His evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was also solid, ranking 22nd in the NFL.
- New Offensive Coordinator: Arthur Smith, known for his run-heavy schemes, is now the Steelers’ offensive coordinator. Under Smith, the Steelers are expected to run the ball frequently, which could benefit Harris as the primary ball carrier and goal-line back.
- ADP Value: Harris is currently being drafted as the RB24, 72nd overall. While his receiving work may not return to previous levels, his role in a potentially improved offense makes him a solid value pick at this ADP, especially as an RB3 or an RB2 in Hero RB builds.
- Final Verdict: Harris may not offer high-end upside, but he’s still a reliable option for fantasy managers. His current ADP makes him an appealing pick in the middle rounds, particularly for those looking to build depth at running back.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Najee Harris
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
58) Zamir White, RB | Las Vegas Raiders
59) Christian Kirk, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
60) James Conner, RB | Arizona Cardinals
61) Anthony Richardson, QB | Indianapolis Colts
62) Zack Moss, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
63) Najee Harris, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
64) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | New England Patriots
65) Jaylen Warren, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
66) C.J. Stroud, QB | Houston Texans
67) Dalton Kincaid, TE | Buffalo Bills
68) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
Najee Harris’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
The year 2021 doesn’t seem that long ago. Then, Harris averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB6. Naturally, this led to him being valued as a clear RB1 in 2022 and highly drafted.
Over the past two years, though, Harris’ production has declined precipitously. He averaged 13.2 points per game in 2022 and a mere 11.5 last year. Not finding the end zone until late October certainly did not help that.
#Steelers RB Najee Harris scores his 1st TD of the 2023 #NFL season!
Couldn’t have come at a better time!pic.twitter.com/8SKYBvH0nw
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 22, 2023
Interestingly enough, Harris’ on-field ability hasn’t really changed. His ypc averages were 3.9, 3.8, and 4.1, respectively, over the last three seasons, with scores of 10,10, and eight. So…what happened?
Looking exclusively at Harris’ rushing numbers plus touchdowns, he provided fantasy managers with 10.5, 9.6, and 8.9 fantasy points per game over that span. While there’s a clear decline there as well, it’s much less significant.
Harris averaged just 1.6 points per game fewer via rushing and scoring in 2023 than he did in 2021. The primary source of his fall in production has been on the receiving end.
Harris “earned” a 14.5% target share as a rookie. I put “earned” in quotes because there was one very important factor in his target share that we may not remember so vividly — the sad remnants of a once great Ben Roethlisberger.
Like many of the greats before him, it was clear during his final season that Roethlisberger was done. He just had nothing left. As a result of his inability to push the ball downfield, he checked it down…a lot.
Harris wasn’t actually efficient, averaging 1.1 yards per route run. But the running back who leads the league in targets and receptions is going to threaten RB1 numbers every year. That was Harris.
In 2022, two major changes occurred. First, Roethlisberger retired. Replacing him was Kenny Pickett, who did not check the ball down as frequently.
Second, the Steelers signed UDFA Jaylen Warren, who turned out to be much better than an undrafted free agent should be. As a result, Harris’ target share cratered, falling to 9.7%.
With Warren firmly establishing himself as a good player and worthy of more than just a rotational role, he became the primary passing-down back. As a result, Harris’ target share fell even further to 7.9% last season.
The ironic part of Harris fading into random RB3 oblivion is he actually had his best year as a runner in 2023. He still only averaged 3.13 yards created per touch, 39th in the NFL, but 5.5% of his rushes went for 15+ yards (10th-highest rate). He also had a 20.1% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate, 22nd in the league.
Is Harris a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
The Steelers’ offense is going to look much different in 2024. All three of Pittsburgh’s quarterbacks from last season are gone. Russell Wilson will be the starter until he inevitably plays his way into getting benched for the team’s other new arrival, Justin Fields.
Regardless of whether it’s Fields or Wilson under center, both will be an upgrade on the carousel of backups the Steelers had masquerading as starters in 2023.
Pittsburgh scored a mere 29 offensive touchdowns last season. That number should be higher with improved quarterback play.
The QB upgrade should also allow the Steelers to sustain more drives, resulting in more opportunities for Harris. It wouldn’t surprise me if he scored 12 times this season.
Another key change is the hiring of Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator. No one will confuse Smith with someone who can run a high-powered offense, but for fantasy purposes, his predictability makes our evaluation easier.
Smith’s Falcons offense ran the ball 49% of the time in a neutral game script last season. As OC of the Tennessee Titans, they were also around 50%. With this in mind, the Steelers are going to run the ball a lot.
I think we’ve seen the nadir of Harris’ performance. The Steelers declined his fifth-year option, almost guaranteeing he’ll be with another team next year. While the receiving work is unlikely to return, it doesn’t have to in order for Harris to be worthy of his RB24 (No. 73 overall) ADP.
I’m slightly above consensus, ranking Harris as my RB21. While he’s not an exciting player and certainly lacks any high-end upside, Harris remains the favorite for carries and goal-line work.
He’s still the starting running back for what should be an improved NFL offense. If his ADP remains outside the first six rounds, Harris is appealing as an RB3 or an RB2 for Hero RB builds.