The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding RB Najee Harris.
Is Najee Harris Playing in Week 18?
Harris is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
Should You Start or Sit Najee Harris in Week 18?
I don’t mean to oversimplify, but who wins this game?
- Najee Harris, production vs. expectations in wins: -1.2%
- Najee Harris, production vs. expectations in losses: -27.8%
The Steelers won the first meeting; Harris was good for 30.3% production over expectation thanks to catching all six of his targets and adding a rushing score. Thanks to Pittsburgh controlling that game, their RB1 posted a season-high in expected points (19.1).
If that is how you see this game playing out, Harris is an RB1 without much hesitation. If not, we could be in trouble.
Harris has produced at least 15% below expectations in each of his past three. If the game script flips in favor of Jaylen Warren, we could be looking at low efficiency and low-ish volume.
Even in that situation, however, thanks to the matchup, I think you’re penciling in Harris. The Steelers are home underdogs and will be motivated to keep Joe Burrow off the field. As long as they can avoid an early strike, I like the home team in this game, and that means I’ll be overweight on exposure to Harris when it comes to Saturday’s two-game DFS slate.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Najee Harris’ Fantasy Points Projection in Week 18
As of Saturday, Harris is projected to score 14.2 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 16.9 rushing attempts for 67.9 yards and 0.4 touchdowns. It also includes 2.7 receptions for 17.8 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bengals' Defense
After a one-week respite against the non-functional Browns offense, the Bengals came crashing back down to Earth and nearly bungled away their playoff hopes against the Broncos.
The Bengals posted a 72.4 (C-) grade against Denver, marking the 10th time in 16 games that this unit finished outside the top 15 in a given week. Cincinnati really fell apart after a strong start, posting the third-worst Defense+ grade in the second half in Week 17.
The Bengals only generated one turnover, which has typically not been enough for this team to win. Cincinnati improved to 2-7 this season when generating one or fewer takeaways, with the other win being against the Giants.
This defense still needs a hard reset when the offseason arrives. That this team remains alive for a playoff spot entering Week 18 is a testament to the elite play from Joe Burrow and the offense.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Najee Harris’ Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 7:00 AM ET on Sunday, January 5. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Week 18 Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 18 RB PPR Rankings
1) Bijan Robinson | ATL (vs. CAR)
2) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs. MIN)
3) Derrick Henry | BAL (vs. CLE)
4) Jonathan Taylor | IND (vs. JAX)
5) Josh Jacobs | GB (vs. CHI)
6) Bucky Irving | TB (vs. NO)
7) Chase Brown | CIN (at PIT)
8) Aaron Jones | MIN (at DET)
9) De'Von Achane | MIA (at NYJ)
10) Zach Charbonnet | SEA (at LAR)
11) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at DAL)
12) Breece Hall | NYJ (vs. MIA)
13) Ray Davis | BUF (at NE)
14) D'Andre Swift | CHI (at GB)
15) Rico Dowdle | DAL (vs. WAS)
16) Isaac Guerendo | SF (at ARI)
17) J.K. Dobbins | LAC (at LV)
18) Najee Harris | PIT (vs. CIN)
19) Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN (vs. KC)
20) Joe Mixon | HOU (at TEN)
21) Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (at PHI)
22) Kenneth Gainwell | PHI (vs. NYG)
23) Blake Corum | LAR (vs. SEA)
24) Tank Bigsby | JAX (at IND)
25) Jaylen Warren | PIT (vs. CIN)
26) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (at IND)
27) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (vs. BUF)
28) Michael Carter | ARI (vs. SF)
29) Rachaad White | TB (vs. NO)
30) D'Onta Foreman | CLE (at BAL)
31) Kimani Vidal | LAC (at LV)
32) Miles Sanders | CAR (at ATL)
33) Tyler Allgeier | ATL (vs. CAR)
34) Audric Estimé | DEN (vs. KC)
35) Will Shipley | PHI (vs. NYG)
36) Alexander Mattison | LV (vs. LAC)
37) Antonio Gibson | NE (vs. BUF)
38) Javonte Williams | DEN (vs. KC)
39) Raheem Blackshear | CAR (at ATL)
40) Ty Johnson | BUF (at NE)
41) Devin Singletary | NYG (at PHI)
42) Cam Akers | MIN (at DET)
43) Raheem Mostert | MIA (at NYJ)
44) Roschon Johnson | CHI (at GB)
45) Craig Reynolds | DET (vs. MIN)
46) Kenny McIntosh | SEA (at LAR)
47) Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at DAL)
48) Cordarrelle Patterson | PIT (vs. CIN)
49) Braelon Allen | NYJ (vs. MIA)
50) Julius Chestnut | TEN (vs. HOU)
51) Samaje Perine | KC (at DEN)
52) Patrick Taylor Jr. | SF (at ARI)
53) Sean Tucker | TB (vs. NO)
54) Jamaal Williams | NO (at TB)
55) Isaiah Davis | NYJ (vs. MIA)
56) Chris Brooks | GB (vs. CHI)
57) Pierre Strong Jr. | CLE (at BAL)
58) Clyde Edwards-Helaire | NO (at TB)
59) Emanuel Wilson | GB (vs. CHI)
60) Mike Boone | CAR (at ATL)
61) Tony Pollard | TEN (vs. HOU)
62) DeeJay Dallas | ARI (vs. SF)
63) Chris Rodriguez Jr. | WAS (at DAL)
64) Dare Ogunbowale | HOU (at TEN)
65) Rasheen Ali | BAL (vs. CLE)
66) Khalil Herbert | CIN (at PIT)
67) Trey Sermon | IND (vs. JAX)
68) Hassan Haskins | LAC (at LV)
69) Kyle Juszczyk | SF (at ARI)
70) Dameon Pierce | HOU (at TEN)
71) Jaylen Wright | MIA (at NYJ)
72) Carson Steele | KC (at DEN)
73) Sione Vaki | DET (vs. MIN)
74) Hunter Luepke | DAL (vs. WAS)
75) Tyler Goodson | IND (vs. JAX)
76) Ke'Shawn Vaughn | SF (at ARI)
77) Alec Ingold | MIA (at NYJ)
78) C.J. Ham | MIN (at DET)
79) Michael Burton | DEN (vs. KC)
80) D'Ernest Johnson | JAX (at IND)
81) Jeff Wilson Jr. | MIA (at NYJ)
82) Eric Gray | NYG (at PHI)
83) Jermar Jefferson | DET (vs. MIN)
84) Patrick Ricard | BAL (vs. CLE)
85) Joshua Kelley | NYG (at PHI)
86) Ty Chandler | MIN (at DET)
87) Israel Abanikanda | SF (at ARI)
88) Adam Prentice | NO (at TB)
89) Dylan Laube | LV (vs. LAC)
90) JaMycal Hasty | NE (vs. BUF)
91) George Holani | SEA (at LAR)
92) James Cook | BUF (at NE)
Bengals at Steelers Trends and Insights
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: Over the past 20 seasons, teams that have won at least four December games have made the playoffs 85.4% of the time.
QB: Joe Burrow has nine games this season, earning a ‘B’ or better in our QB+ metric – he had eight such games over the two seasons prior.
Offense: The Bengals have converted just eight of 13 (61.5%) goal-to-go drives into touchdowns over their past three games (first 14 weeks: 82.8%).
Defense: Cincinnati has stopped its opponent on at least two-thirds of third downs in three of its past four games, something it did just three times through the first 13 weeks.
Fantasy: On top of all of the passing numbers, Burrow has a 15+ yard rush in consecutive games for the first time since October 2022.
Betting: Four straight games, and seven of their past eight, played on extended rest by the Bengals have either seen them cover and the under hit OR them fail to cover and the over cash.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The Steelers have multiple losing streaks this regular season, something two Super Bowl Champions have done in the 2000s:
- 2010 Packers: Lost a Week 15 road game and gave up 27+ points
- 2015 Broncos: Lost a Week 15 road game and gave up 27+ points
- 2024 Steelers: Lost a Week 15 road game and gave up 27+ points
QB: In George Pickens’ return, Russell Wilson couldn’t find a rhythm downfield. He went just one-of-six on deep throws (his lowest such completion percentage of the season) and threw an interception (his first such pick since Week 10).
Offense: From Weeks 6-14, Pittsburgh won seven of the eight right games and averaged 2.26 points per drive. They have been 0-3 since and have scored just 1.29 points per drive.
Defense: The Steelers lost on Christmas Day despite holding the Chiefs to just a 30% success rate on third downs (prior to that game, they were 6-1 this season when holding their opponent to a 30% conversion rate).
Fantasy: Jaylen Warren’s usage is trending up, and he’s cleared PPR fantasy expectations by over 5% in five of his past seven games.
Betting: Pittsburgh’s ATS results have mirrored their real-life results—they’ve covered all 10 of their wins and failed to cover all 6 of their losses.