There’s always activity in the NFL. Even after the games are done, fantasy football values remain in flux. Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris had a solid 2023 but faces a bit of an uncertain future. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Najee Harris’ Dynasty Outlook
Just three short years ago, Harris had one of the best rookie seasons for a running back in fantasy history. In 2021, he commanded a whopping 381 touches for 1,667 total yards and 10 total touchdowns. He averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB6.
The thing about Harris’ rookie year is it was easy to see what propelled him to such great heights — volume, and lots of it. Harris’ RB1 finish as a rookie was entirely precipitated by his workload.
Ben Roethlisberger was a check-down master toward the tail-end of his career. After he retired, there was hope that a new, younger quarterback would be an upgrade on the 2021 version of Big Ben. Sadly, that has proven to not be the case.
The Steelers’ offense did not take a step forward. But the new quarterback, Kenny Pickett, also didn’t hyper-target Harris out of the backfield.
After seeing a 14.5% target share as a rookie, that number fell to 9.7% in Harris’ second season. Additionally, the overall passing volume dropped, leading to his total target count dropping from 94 to 53. That’s almost in half.
Since Harris has yet to miss a game in his career, we can easily compare season totals for him. In 2023, things got even worse. Jaylen Warren’s rapid ascent from random UDFA practice-squad hopeful to clear RB2 to the 1b in a committee severely cut into Harris’ usage.
Most notably, it slashed his receiving role even more. In 2023, Harris’ target share dropped again to 7.9%, and he saw a total of just 38 targets.
Additionally, Harris’ rushing volume also decreased. His carry count went from 307 to 272 to 255. Warren has been more efficient and more effective as a runner than Harris.
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There were some positives to take away, though. Harris did see an increase in explosive-play rate, with 5.5% of his carries going for 15+ yards, 10th in the league. He also had a 20% evaded tackles per touch rate, goof for 22nd in the NFL.
On the flip side, Harris averaged just 4.2 yards per touch, 46th in the league, and created 3.13 yards per touch (39th).
Harris has established himself as a two-down grinder and the clear favorite for goal-line carries on a very slow-paced, low-scoring offense. With suboptimal conditions for fantasy production, dynasty managers are rightfully wondering what to do with Harris.
Jason Katz’s Top 25 RB Rankings
1) Breece Hall | NYJ
2) Bijan Robinson | ATL
3) Jahmyr Gibbs | DET
4) Christian McCaffrey | SF
5) Jonathan Taylor | IND
6) Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX
7) De’Von Achane | MIA
8) Saquon Barkley | NYG
9) Rachaad White | TB
10) Isiah Pacheco | KC
11) Kenneth Walker III | SEA
12) Josh Jacobs | LV
13) Kyren Williams | LAR
14) James Cook | BUF
15) D’Andre Swift | PHI
16) Javonte Williams | DEN
17) Tony Pollard | DAL
18) Tyjae Spears | TEN
19) Rhamondre Stevenson | NE
20) Joe Mixon | CIN
21) Alvin Kamara | NO
22) David Montgomery | DET
23) Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS
24) Derrick Henry | TEN
25) Austin Ekeler | LAC
Should You Trade Harris in Dynasty?
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I’ve long been critical of Harris’ abilities, but in the right conditions, I do think he could thrive. Imagine him in Dallas in the Ezekiel Elliott role alongside Tony Pollard. It would look a lot like it does now with Warren, in a much more favorable environment.
Harris just isn’t the type of running back who can thrive on a bad offense. Unfortunately, not much is likely to change in 2024.
The hope for fantasy managers is something can change in 2025. Harris is entering the final year of his rookie deal. As a first-round pick, Pittsburgh has a fifth-year option, which they must choose whether to exercise by May 2. My guess is that the Steelers will decline it, which is what fantasy managers want.
The contract environment for running backs is notably not great right now. That makes predicting Harris’ playing future challenging. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say 2024 ends up being his last year with Pittsburgh.
Whether Harris is someone you want to trade now depends on where he ends up in 2025 and beyond. Of course, that’s something completely unknowable. Therefore, your decision on Harris has to be based on the level of risk you’re comfortable with.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
If you want to gamble Harris leaves Pittsburgh and signs somewhere more favorable, hang onto him. However, if you want to just get out now, I don’t think you will massively regret it even if Harris ends up being a solid RB2 for another 3-4 years.
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