We have a Monday Night Football doubleheader this week, which means there are double the amount of NFL player props to bet on. But with two games tonight, which bets should you be targeting? Let’s get into our top Monday Night Football player prop bets, with picks for players such as Tyreek Hill, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and others.
Top Monday Night Football Player Prop Bets
Will Levis Under 208.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Brian Blewis: Will Levis is pretty much a boom-or-bust type of quarterback. He’s been fairly inaccurate but likes to take deep shots downfield. Levis leads all quarterbacks to start at least two games this season in air yards per attempt but has the sixth-lowest completion percentage over expected.
On Monday, he faces a Miami Dolphins team that has been the top-ranked pass defense both by EPA/play and success rate since Jalen Ramsey returned from injury in Week 8. In this matchup, I’m expecting Levis to struggle.
Derrick Henry Under 14.5 Rush Attempts (-127 at Caesars)
Jason Katz: We’ve been on Derrick Henry overs for the past two weeks. Why? The Tennessee Titans were home favorites. The game script was not expected to get away from them, and it didn’t. While they didn’t win against the Colts last week, the Titans were never far behind, thus keeping Henry involved.
Tennessee has lost five games this season by seven points or more. Henry’s largest carry count in those games was 13.
MORE: Titans vs. Dolphins Same Game Parlay Featuring Tua Tagovailoa and Timely Scoring
The Dolphins are favored by nearly two touchdowns. This game is in Miami, and the Dolphins’ offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Titans should quickly find themselves in a negative game script, which means more Tyjae Spears and less Henry. That means more passing and less running.
DeAndre Hopkins Under 4.5 Receptions (-130 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Since Levis has been the Titans’ starting quarterback, DeAndre Hopkins has only had five or more receptions in one game — which was last week in their overtime loss to the Colts.
The issue for Hopkins is that this is a run-first offense with an inaccurate QB under center. Even in a matchup in which they should be in a negative game script for the majority of the game, I still like the under on Hopkins’ receptions line.
Tua Tagovailoa Under 0.5 Interceptions (-130 at DraftKings)
Kyle Soppe: The Titans struggle to catch the ball. That’s true on the offensive end, but I’m going to focus on their secondary.
Tennessee has recorded a pick in just 25% of their games this season, a rate that is pacing to rank as the fourth worst since the winless Detroit Lions of 2008.
Tua Tagovailoa’s interception rate is higher this season than last, but those interceptions haven’t come against this type of defense. Here are the splits for him when playing defenses that rank bottom five in this stat this season compared to all other games:
- Bottom Five: Intercepted once on 134 passes (0.7%)
- Otherwise: Intercepted nine times on 267 passes (3.4%)
Tyreek Hill 100+ Receiving Yards, Dolphins -6.5 (+119 at FanDuel)
Blewis: While the Titans’ pass defense isn’t as bad as the Washington Commanders’, they still rank 30th in dropback EPA and 29th in success rate. Good luck slowing down the Dolphins’ passing attack.
For this one, I’m going to give out a sort of unconventional pick — a two-leg SGP. Let’s go with Tyreek Hill to go for 100+ receiving yards and Dolphins -6.5.
In every game they’ve been favored by at least a touchdown this season, Miami has won by at least that many points. The only time they didn’t cover the spread was against the Raiders, but they still won by seven.
Jordan Love Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130 at FanDuel)
Blewis: Jordan Love has been very impressive in recent weeks and has cemented himself as a long-term option at the quarterback position for the Packers.
But tonight, he will be without Christian Watson, who has been really productive as of late. In the Packers’ last three games, Watson has scored a combined four touchdowns. Prior to that, he had just one touchdown in six games for the season.
MORE: Packers vs. Giants Predictions and Sharp Picks from Betting Experts
Without Watson, Love will be missing his favorite red-zone target, whose red-zone target share of 27% is 7% higher than both Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed.
Without his best receiver, and in a game that could potentially feature a positive game script, with Green Bay being near touchdown road favorites, I’m going to take the under on Love’s passing TDs. This especially considering his stock is at an all-time high right now after beating Patrick Mahomes on Sunday Night Football.
Dontayvion Wicks Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: This is a surprisingly low line for a player who has gone over this number in four straight games. Dontayvion Wicks has had a relevant role in the Packers’ passing game all season. Now, with Watson out, Wicks will take over as the other outside receiver opposite Doubs.
Wicks saw a 60% snap share in games Watson didn’t play. He should run more routes and, thus, see more targets. The Giants allow the sixth-most yards per game to wide receivers. Wicks could hit this in the first half.
Tommy DeVito Over 172.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Tommy DeVito is playing some good football and has realistically looked fine in three of his four appearances this season. No, it’s not exciting, but it doesn’t have to be to cash our bets.
In three of four games, DeVito has cleared his listed passing number for this week. The one exception was the game in Dallas, where New York had the ball for under 23 minutes against an elite defense. With Green Bay ranking 24th in average time of possession this season, DeVito being off the field at that level is unlikely.
The Giants are coming off of their bye with an opportunity to lean into what DeVito does best, and that should help boost his yardage total. Combine that with a potential game script situation, given the spread in this game and a season-high in pass attempts in very much in play.
If you use DeVito’s three non-Cowboys games, his per-pass production requires only 21 attempts to cash this prop.
Saquon Barkley Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Contrary to popular belief, Saquon Barkley hasn’t really been involved in the passing game much in quite some time, and his upside as a receiver out of the backfield has obviously taken a hit with the Giants’ injuries at quarterback this season.
Barkley has gone over this number in four of nine games this season, with two of them coming against the Commanders and another in their 20-point comeback win over the Cardinals back in Week 2.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
While you would think the Giants would utilize Barkley in this role more — especially with how thin they are at WR — that hasn’t been the case. He hasn’t recorded more than five targets in a single game with DeVito under center.
Jalin Hyatt Longest Reception Over 16.5 Yards (-120 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Jalin Hyatt drew some comparisons to DeSean Jackson coming out of college, and even though he has a long way to go, he certainly has a similar playing style as a deep threat.
Hyatt’s average depth of target is an insane 24.9, which is the highest of all players in the NFL, with at least 20 targets and nearly five yards more than the next closest player.
Before New York’s bye week, Hyatt had his best game so far, with five catches for 109 yards, including a 41-yard reception. With the Giants’ season basically over, maybe they come out of the bye with more of an emphasis on getting the ball to Hyatt?
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