Defense wins championships, and tonight’s matchup features two teams historically known for their defenses. The rookie-led Chicago Bears head to frosty Pittsburgh to challenge the Steelers as we pick a winner for tonight’s Week 9 Monday Night Football prediction. In this prime-time matchup, let’s dive into the Bears vs. Steelers and determine the best pick for this NFL betting opportunity.
Monday Night Football Picks: Bears vs. Steelers prediction
We close out Week 9 with two teams that have struggled to find their identity offensively but are slowly starting to turn the corner. Chicago lost last week to the San Francisco 49ers by a score of 33-22. Quarterback Justin Fields looks more comfortable in the offense now and should continue to improve weekly.
Pittsburgh defeated their division rival Cleveland Browns on the road in Week 8 by a score of 15-10 and relied predominately on the run. The offense has improved as of late and should continue to do so. Something has to turn the corner for both offenses to be worthy of a Monday Night Football pick.
It’s cold in the Windy City
Winning requires a team effort but having a quality starting quarterback helps ease the difficulty. When Chicago drafted Fields in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, they expected answers to their prayers. The Bears have longed for an elite signal-caller for years, and someone with Fields’ pedigree could solve their woes. Chicago comes into this game on a three-game losing streak and is 3-5 on the season.
Chicago’s offense looks extremely grim when diving into the numbers. They rank third-worst in both expected points added (EPA) and DVOA (Football Outsiders advanced efficiency metric). This offense is weighed down by their league-worst passing offense and Field’s league-worst EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expected) composite. Chicago does run the ball decently and should be boosted tonight with the return of running back David Montgomery.
[bet-promo id=”160605″ ]For all the hype surrounding the Bears’ defense, the 2021 rendition is nothing compared to years past. Chicago ranks 18th in total defensive DVOA and 23rd in EPA. If opposing teams can attack one area of the defense, it’s the front seven, as the Bears rank 24th in rush DVOA and third-worst in defensive rushing EPA.
Chicago defends the pass at a slightly higher mark. Yet, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger isn’t the gunslinger of old and will likely attack the Bears’ secondary with short-to-intermediate passes. Does Chicago have enough offensively to make them a viable pick for this Monday Night Football prediction?
The Steel Curtain
Pittsburgh has decided to forgo its future and hooked itself to another year of Roethlisberger in 2021. In an encore from 2020, the Steelers’ offense has looked inept, lacking a deep threat this season. However, they have focused more on a balanced attack after being pass-heavy last season to no avail. Running back Najee Harris has been a workhorse for Pittsburgh, and not much should change going into tonight’s game against a bottom-tier Bears run defense.
The Steelers rank 21st in total offensive DVOA and 23rd in total EPA. Pittsburgh’s ground game ranks slightly higher than their aerial attack. Yet, both are still in the bottom half of the league overall. Roethlisberger comes into this game as the 26th-ranked quarterback in EPA + CPOE composite on a team that focuses more on running the ball.
Related | NFL Power Rankings Week 10: Jaguars, Giants, and Broncos prove “any given Sunday” is real
Defensively, Pittsburgh sits in the top half of the league across the board but nowhere near the No. 1 overall defense expectation entering the season. The Steelers rank 10th in total DVOA, with their sixth-ranked front seven leading the way. Pittsburgh’s numbers drop slightly across the board in EPA, with a 14th-ranked defense led by their eighth-ranked run-stopping unit.
They have faced the third-most challenging schedule for defenses according to DVOA, so it remains to be seen how good this defense is. Can the Steel Curtain shut down Fields and the Bears’ offense enough to cover the -7 spread as a pick for Monday Night Football?
Bears vs. Steelers prediction and pick
With the offensive ineptitude of both teams being the focal point this season, taking the under on the point total makes sense. However, during the first four weeks of the season, Chicago ranked 30th in offensive EPA while Pittsburgh ranked 27th.
Over the last four weeks, both teams have improved their offensive numbers, with Chicago coming in at 27th with a rookie quarterback learning the ropes and Pittsburgh improving to 18th, focusing on feeding Harris the ball.
I expect more offensive improvement in this game as the Steelers should expose the Bears’ 30th-ranked run defense. Fields should continue to string together multiple positive plays and games.
In today’s NFL, 39.5 points is a low total, even for two inept offenses. A final score of 23-20 pushes this game over the listed total. I’ll take over 39.5 total points as an official pick for tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction.