Two organizations that are struggling for an identity battle it out on Monday Night Football. The hobbled Seattle Seahawks host the post-Drew Brees New Orleans Saints for the Week 7 closure. For this Monday Night Football prediction, let’s dive into the Saints vs. Seahawks soireé and determine the best pick for this NFL betting matchup.
Monday Night Football Pick and Prediction: Saints vs. Seahawks
We close out Week 7 with two teams struggling to stay relevant. After their former quarterback Brees retired at the end of last season, the Saints spent the offseason determining who would lead them into the future and what their identity would be.
The Seahawks are without their starting quarterback in Russell Wilson and starting running back in Chris Carson. They are entering this game with Geno Smith at the helm. Add in a combination of Alex Collins and Rashaad Penny at running back and things are grim. Do the Seahawks have enough talent on the field to compete with the Saints?
Refresh, retool, rebuild
For 15 exciting seasons, the Saints were blessed with one of the best quarterbacks of all time in Brees. The continuity and the relationship with head coach Sean Payton are not to be underestimated. New Orleans was in the Super Bowl conversation year in and year out due to those two alone. With Payton still at the helm and Jameis Winston leading the troops, the hype hasn’t been the same, but the Saints are still playoff hopefuls.
This season, Winston has been an adequate replacement with a 62.3 QBR (eighth overall). He has led the Saints to 0.044 EPA/play, which ranks 17th in the league. Their passing attack boosts New Orleans’ total offensive EPA, as they rank eighth overall per dropback. Meanwhile, the Saints are 23rd in EPA when attempting to run the ball.
However, these numbers may come as a surprise when you look at more rudimentary statistics. The Saints are 31st in the league with 169.4 air yards per game and ninth overall with 125.8 rushing yards per contest. Regardless of how they get there, they are the ninth-best scoring offense in the NFL at 25.4 points per game and are fourth in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 18.2 points per contest.
Will Payton change his tune and air it out more? He may need to for victory in tonight’s Monday Night Football clash.
Stiff competition
One area of concern for New Orleans comes down to the level of competition they have faced. Outside of their Week 1 throttling of the Green Bay Packers, the Saints have not faced any difficult opponents. The list of teams New Orleans has encountered this season: Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, and Washington Football Team. Aside from the Packers, New Orleans hasn’t faced a team that has a winning record. The Saints’ two losses this season came against the Panthers and the Giants.
The Saints rank third in total defensive DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric), with their rush defense leading the way at No. 2 overall. They are also in the top 10 in pass DVOA, so Smith will have his work cut out for him in tonight’s matchup. New Orleans ranks 17th in total offensive DVOA, with their ninth-rated pass unit helping out their 17th-ranked rushing attack.
The Saints will be facing a subpar opponent tonight as they face off against a Seattle team missing two of their biggest offensive weapons. A Smith-led Seahawks offense without its stud running back is nowhere near the same as a Wilson-led offense with Carson. The Saints should continue their defensive dominance of lower-level opponents. One of my Monday Night Football predictions? The porous Seattle secondary should allow for Winston and Co. to move the ball with ease.
Fallen royalty
Talk about descent from prominence. The “Not for Long” moniker for the NFL continues to prove itself true. It seemed like the Seahawks were a perennial Super Bowl contender just yesterday, with the Legion of Boom and Wilson leading the way. With the same head coach in Pete Carroll and the same quarterback, Seattle has fallen by the wayside and is essentially forgotten about for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Offensively, Seattle has excellent season-long advanced metrics, ranking sixth in total offense DVOA — both their rush and pass attack rank in the top seven. However, these numbers are buoyed by both Wilson and Carson, and both will be missing in action tonight.
Last week, Seattle struggled to put points on the board against the Steelers’ defense and will be facing an even stronger unit tonight versus New Orleans. Even with the return of Penny at running back, Seattle will need to rely on some creative play-calling to stay in this game.
New Orleans is coming off their bye, making them an even more appealing Monday Night Football pick against Seattle.
Legion of Doom
Do the players make the coach? Or does the coach and scheme make the player? Obviously, it is a combination of both. However, the Seahawks are doing an exceptional job of making it seem like the players make the coach. That once dreaded “Legion of Boom” is now a bottom-tier defense. Seattle ranks 22nd in total defensive DVOA, with their 24th-ranked secondary being the worst unit of the group.
The Seahawks allow the 10th-highest EPA/play at 0.085 and are second-worst against the pass in the league, allowing opponents to hit a 54.1% success rate per dropback. On a basic level, they allow 433.2 total yards per game (worst) and give up 24.8 points per contest (20th). Seattle gives up 292.3 passing yards per game (sixth-worst) and an additional 140.8 yards on the ground per game (third-worst).
This is not the Seattle defense of old and it shows. Will they have enough firepower to keep up with the Saints as a pick in tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction?
Saints vs. Seahawks pick and prediction
The stats overwhelmingly point to an easy Saints victory. However, this is the NFL, and nothing is as easy as it seems. Seattle’s stats show most of their offensive success came from a Wilson-led offense. Wilson’s offense (62.5 QBR) is more explosive than a Smith-led attack (34.9 QBR). The Seahawks’ run stats also came with Carson leading the way, but Penny should be a decent substitution.
The model predicts a 26-20 Saints victory, and the advanced metrics show Seattle enduring a difficult opponent tonight. I will lay the -4 points in tonight’s Monday Night Football pick and take the Saints as my winner.