Tonight’s interconference matchup will have significant playoff implications for one team. The suddenly dangerous Miami Dolphins head to New Orleans to challenge the depleted Saints — we’ll make picks and predictions for tonight’s Monday Night Football tilt. Let’s dive into the Dolphins vs. Saints in this prime-time matchup and determine the best choice for this NFL betting opportunity.
Monday Night Football Picks: Dolphins vs. Saints prediction
We close out Week 16 with one team that needs a win in tonight’s game to stay relevant in the NFL playoff picture. Miami surged from an abysmal 1-7 start and potentially missing the playoffs for the fifth season in a row to being in complete control of whether or not they make the postseason this year.
New Orleans has struggled with consistent quarterback play since Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees retired last season. They were led by Jameis Winston until an ACL injury sidelined him during their Week 8 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With a combination of Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian in control of the team, the Saints have gone 2-5 over the last seven weeks.
Can the Saints overcome their COVID-19 and injury issues to be a viable pick in this Monday Night Football prediction? Or will the Dolphins continue their recent winning ways and control their playoff destiny?
Bienvenido a Miami
The Brian Flores-led Dolphins are officially in control of their destiny. Miami is looking for their seventh win in a row after losing winnable games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Atlanta Falcons, and Las Vegas Raiders this season. At the beginning of their winning streak, the Dolphins owned the third-worst record in the league at 1-7.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has come on strong this season, utilizing his quick reads and efficient passing to lead the league in completion percentage (69.9%). Tua is also 11th overall when looking at the advanced EPA (expected points added) + CPOE (completion percentage over expected) composite. He has proven his doubters wrong, and his improved play has helped catapult this Miami team to where they currently are.
Miami efficiency metrics
The Dolphins’ offense is still a work in progress this year. Since the beginning of their winning ways in Week 9, Miami has had the 15th-best offense regarding EPA. Tua and the aerial attack lead this offense, as they rank 11th in the league when passing the ball, yet 28th when attempting to run the ball during the last six weeks. These numbers improved significantly, as Miami ranked 27th overall with the 26th-ranked passing attack and the second-worst run game before Week 9.
According to DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric), the Dolphins show similar efficiency as their EPA for the entire season. They rank 25th overall with the 22nd-ranked passing attack and third-worst run game.
Stingy defenses have been the strong suit for the Dolphins since the 1990s, and Flores has made it his trademark thus far. During the first eight weeks of the season, Miami was atrocious defensively. They had the sixth-worst total defense that was shredded by the passing game (28th in EPA) more than the ground attack (14th).
The Dolphins have been able to shore up their defense over the last six weeks, as they boast the No. 1 overall defense since Week 9, led by the best secondary in the league during that stretch (but the fifth-worst front at stopping the run). The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde performances of Miami rank them at 14th overall in defensive EPA and 12th in DVOA on the season.
Can the Dolphins’ defense continue their dominant run and make them a viable pick for our Monday Night Football prediction?
Running out of time
Like Miami, New Orleans is also one game behind the final Wild Card spot and needs a win tonight to stay in playoff contention. However, the difference between these two teams comes down to the signal-callers.
While the Dolphins will be entering this game with the most efficient quarterback in the NFL this season, the Saints will be fielding a rookie in Ian Book. He will be making his first career start against this aggressive Dolphins secondary. With Flores’ penchant for exotic fronts and heavy blitzing, Book will be in for a long night with a high probability for multiple mistakes.
New Orleans efficiency metrics
As they have been all season long, New Orleans still ranks in the top five defensively with stellar run defense. According to DVOA, the Saints have the No. 5 total defense with the league’s best run defense and a top-six pass defense. These top-tier numbers are supported by the EPA metric as well. New Orleans has the third-best defensive EPA, and once again, the league’s best run defense and a top-six pass defense. The defense was never the concern for this Saints team entering the season. The questions came at the offensive end of the field.
Head coach Sean Payton is trying to figure out how to get the most from his post-Brees unit. They have the sixth-worst total offense regarding EPA, and both the run game (sixth-worst) and passing attack (fourth-worst) are to blame. Football Outsiders has the Saints offense ranked slightly better regarding DVOA, as New Orleans has the 21st-ranked total offense with the 18th-ranked aerial attack and 23rd-ranked run game. Regardless of which metric you focus on, the Saints’ offense is below-average.
Injury woes
Winston was the most efficient quarterback New Orleans had this season, as he ranked 12th overall in the EPA + CPOE composite. The next closest Saints quarterback in the rankings is Siemian at 31st overall. There has been a significant drop-off for New Orleans since the loss of Winston, and the lack of a running game has not helped them either.
Will the stout defense for New Orleans be the deciding factor in this game? Or will the inept offense make the Saints a disappointing pick for tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction?
Dolphins vs. Saints prediction and pick
With both teams needing a victory to stay relevant in their respective playoff pictures, the more efficient offense makes this a deciding factor. Both the Dolphins and Saints have top-tier defenses capable of making even the most veteran quarterbacks uncomfortable. With a second-year QB in Tua who is taking giant strides this season regarding efficiency, the Dolphins’ offense has improved weekly and should do enough to take this game and remain in control of their destiny.
The Saints, on the other hand, will be down to their fourth-string rookie quarterback, who will be making his first-ever NFL start. Flores and Co. should keep Book under constant pressure and force him into inevitable mistakes to take control of this game. Due to these offensive differences, I will be taking the Dolphins -3 as my official play in tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction.