Tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction features two division rivals atop the AFC standings as potential picks. The resurgent New England Patriots head to the mercurial Buffalo Bills to close out Week 13. Let’s dive into Patriots vs. Bills for this prime-time matchup and determine the best pick for this NFL betting prediction.
Monday Night Football Picks: Patriots vs. Bills prediction
We close out Week 13 with two teams that have battled for years and look to renew their rivalry. New England entered the 2021 season expecting a potential rebuild with a rookie QB and fewer offensive weapons than years past.
Fast forward to today, and the Patriots are employing the ball-control offense alongside a dominant defense as they did at the beginning of the Tom Brady-era.
Buffalo has had their ups and downs this season and have competition at the top of the AFC East when it seemed like the division was theirs to lose entering the season. Quarterback Josh Allen has struggled at times, and the Bills have decided to live and die by the passing attack.
Which one of these AFC East juggernauts will make for the correct pick in tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction?
What rebuild?
Are we really surprised that Bill Belichick rebounded this quickly after Brady’s departure? It feels as though we rewound the clock to 2001, and the Patriots are redoing the last 20 years with a top-five defense and a rookie QB.
Nobody does it better than Belichick when it comes to exposing opposing teams’ weaknesses. He has dominated the AFC East for the last 20+ years and will attempt to remind everyone of his dominance in tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction.
Elite Advanced Metrics
You can’t talk about the 2021 Patriots without referencing their defense first. They are the No. 2 defense in the league in total DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric) and No. 3 in EPA (Expected Points Added). Much of their defensive success comes from their elite secondary. New England has the second-best pass defense in DVOA and third-best in EPA.
When focusing on the run defense, however, the Patriots have some room for improvement. They rank below average in both metrics, but they’re going up against a Bills team that doesn’t run the ball often. Will that change tonight as Buffalo faces a New England team that struggles against the run more than the pass?
[bet-promo id=”160605″ ]Offensively, the Patriots are no slouch. Since Week 5, they are a top-five offense across the board. They rank No. 1 overall in pass EPA and No. 5 in rush EPA in that timeframe. The Patriots have employed a vital game plan that leads to rookie success; run the ball early and often, and don’t force your rookie QB to throw the ball 40 times a game.
Mac Jones has been highly efficient and has taken care of the football outside of a couple of games this season. Tonight will be a key matchup for him as the Buffalo defense has also exhibited elite defensive numbers this season. Will the Patriots continue their recent tear and add the Bills to the list to make them the favorite pick for tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction?
Bills Mafia
What a difference a year makes. Last season, Buffalo owned arguably the best offensive unit in the league and just needed some additional pieces to catapult them to the AFC forefront. Now, with the retooled Patriots coming for their vacated throne, the Bills’ hopes and dreams are slowly dwindling. Tonight’s matchup is vital for both teams, but the Bills are the ones that have all the pressure on them to perform.
What the numbers say
On the season, the Bills’ offense can be considered tumultuous, depending on what stats you choose to look at. In one aspect, Buffalo looks like a top-three offense, according to EPA. They have a top-five passing attack and a top-15 running game strictly based on EPA.
On the other hand, DVOA isn’t as kind to the Buffalo offense. The Bills are No. 16 overall in offensive DVOA, and both the passing and rushing attacks sit below the league average. This is with the easiest offensive schedule in the NFL this season.
Defensively, the Bills are No. 1 across the board. In both EPA and DVOA, Buffalo has the league’s best defense, primarily due to their ability to stop the pass. However, this was with their elite cornerback in Tre’Davious White, who is now out for the season. How will the Buffalo secondary perform now that everyone will need to move up the totem pole in coverage?
Against the run, Buffalo is just as aggressive. They can stop the run with the best of them, ranking top five in both EPA and DVOA. It will be a test of strength versus strength as the Patriots own one of the league’s best rushing attacks this season. With two stout offenses and defenses for both teams, which side is the one to pick for this Monday Night Football prediction?
Patriots vs. Bills prediction and pick
Arguably the greatest coach of all time is an underdog in this one and getting points. Allen has been inconsistent as of late, and he’s going up against a defensive mastermind in Belichick, who will expose his weaknesses and take away his favorite weapons.
The Patriots have the second-best defense in the league and a powerful running attack — two things that travel well. The Bills have struggled in the red zone, and Belichick will make sure that continues tonight.
One last key point between these two teams comes down to their special-teams capabilities. According to DVOA, the Patriots have the third-best special teams in the league. The Bills, meanwhile, are ranked 14th. In a potential weather-inclement environment tonight in Buffalo, special teams may become a factor in the final score of this game. Once again, the advantage goes to the Patriots.
I’m expecting a defensive battle where the more prepared team comes out on top. I’m taking the Patriots +3 as my official pick for tonight’s Monday Night Football prediction.