Six games against divisional rivals help shape the results for every team. Tonight, the Super Bowl favorite Los Angeles Rams head to the Bay Area to challenge the San Francisco 49ers in prime time on Monday Night Football. Let’s dive into an NFL betting prediction on the Rams at 49ers tilt and determine the best pick.
Monday Night Football Picks: Rams vs. 49ers prediction
We close out Week 10 with two teams headed in different directions. Los Angeles lost last week to the Tennessee Titans in a game that could have ended differently. The Rams have made huge headlines as of late by trading for edge rusher Von Miller and signing free agent wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.
San Francisco enters this game off their bye, but they lost to another divisional rival the week before in dominating fashion. The Arizona Cardinals crushed the 49ers even without superstar signal-caller Kyler Murray.
City of Angels
Before the season began, the acquisition of Matthew Stafford catapulted Los Angeles to the top of Super Bowl contention. Now, with the additions of Miller and Beckham, if the Rams don’t at least make the NFC Championship Game, this season will be considered a disappointment. Los Angeles had an elite defense before this season and now has an elite offense to go with it.
Although the Rams were a defense-driven, run-first type of team in years past, this season has been quite the difference. When looking at their advanced metrics, Los Angeles ranks in the bottom half in defensive EPA (expected points added) and DVOA (Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric).
Los Angeles’ advanced metrics
The defensive focus with the Rams comes down to their average metrics regarding their run-stopping ability. Los Angeles has the No. 4-ranked defense according to DVOA (No. 5 vs. the pass, No. 14 vs. the run). The same can be said when focusing on defensive EPA, as the Rams rank eighth overall with an eighth-ranked secondary but a 20th-ranked front seven. Against a 49ers team that loves to run the ball, the Rams will have to prevent getting gashed on the ground tonight.
Offensively, good luck stopping this juggernaut. This season, Stafford enters this game as the third-ranked quarterback in EPA + CPOE (completion percentage over expected) composite, and the Rams’ offense ranks in the top 10 in both EPA and DVOA. Los Angeles’ elite passing attack leads this team, where they rank seventh in DVOA and second in EPA.
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If there is an area where the Rams can improve, it is their ground game, where they come in at 14th in DVOA and 23rd in EPA. However, in a pass-first league that focuses on spreading defenses out, Los Angeles fits right in with their multitude of weapons and elite signal-caller.
Will the Rams use their high-powered offense to dominate the 49ers and be the best pick in this Monday Night Football prediction?
49ers living below expectations
Could 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan be living off both his glorified name and previous accolades? Yes, he has been to the Super Bowl twice, but his team choked away the lead in both games. He was also criticized for abandoning the run in both contests. Outside of those two seasons, however, Shanahan’s teams have looked mediocre at best and continue to have issues across the board. At what point do we look at the coach as the issue rather than the players on the field?
With all the 2021 NFL Draft drama surrounding San Francisco this past offseason, did Shanahan make the wrong decision? One must wonder when they were linked to quarterback Mac Jones during the draft process. The 49ers then suddenly switched to Trey Lance after being ridiculed for considering Jones at such a high draft spot. Meanwhile, Lance has been firmly planted on the bench; Jones continues to improve week in and week out.
San Francisco’s advanced metrics
Whether or not you consider the 49ers’ offense successful comes down to which metrics you prefer to focus on. According to DVOA, San Francisco has the sixth-best offense led by their third-ranked passing attack. When focusing on EPA, however, the 49ers rank in the middle of the league across the board. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t doing much to help the cause. He ranks 17th overall in the EPA + CPOE composite and has caused his fair share of mistakes to kill drives.
What was once the strength of this San Francisco team has now become the leaky faucet. The vaunted 49ers defense from a couple of years ago is no more, and opposing teams can expose this secondary.
The 49ers have the 17th-ranked defense according to DVOA, which shows glaring differences between their secondary and their front seven. San Francisco has the 25th-ranked pass DVOA and the sixth-ranked run defense. The same glaring issue comes up in EPA as well, where the 49ers are 23rd overall with the 27th-ranked pass defense and the eighth-ranked run-stopping unit.
With a team like Los Angeles that prefers to pass the ball instead of running, will San Francisco have enough to keep up with the Rams as a pick in this Monday Night Football prediction?
Rams vs. 49ers prediction and pick
Siding with the public and the favorite in a prime-time game scares me. It’s a terrible spot to be in when the public is backing your side with such a high percentage because it’s a game that “looks too easy” on paper. However, the Rams are just THAT team. San Francisco will have issues on the offensive side of the ball, even if they can run it properly. Los Angeles will continuously expose the Niners’ weak secondary, and Stafford should have a field day.
Given the -3.5 NFL odds, my Monday Night Football prediction is the Rams win this game by a touchdown or more — make your pick the Rams covering the spread.