Monday Night Football features two tough-to-gauge teams. Through the first two weeks of the season, the New Orleans Saints looked like the high-flying and aggressive unit that we expected the Kansas City Chiefs to be in their quest for a three-peat with a retooled stable of playmakers.
After scoring 91 points through the first two weeks of the season, however, the Saints have stubbed their toe in consecutive weeks. The unblemished Chiefs have the record of a future champion, but, after diving into our xWins+ metric, they are very fortunate to have three wins, let alone four.
All of my picks for this island game are available, but my favorite is what you came for and that’s what you shall get!
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Monday Night Football: Prop Pick of the Night
The Rashid Shaheed case is one based on efficiency. I love the strides he’s made during his two-plus seasons in the NFL, but his ability to earn targets is still a work in progress, thus making his weekly production a bit of a rollercoaster ride.
The sporadic nature of his game makes him a tough player for sportsbooks to handicap properly, making him a player I routinely bet on (or against), with the thought being that I can devote more energy into evaluating his individual matchup than the books, who are responsible for posting hundreds, if not thousands, of prop bets each week.
Chiefs Pressure Rate When Blitzing
- Week 1: 22.2%
- Week 2: 40%
- Week 3: 46.2%
- Week 4: 50%
Of course, some of that is dependent on the game script and opponent, but the fact of the matter is that when the Chiefs want to raise the temperature on a quarterback, they’ve been increasingly able to do so (NFL average: 39.7%) and that’s a valuable trait to have against a pocket-locked quarterback like Derek Carr.
From 2019-21, Carr thrived under pressure, averaging 8.6 yards per pass when blitzed and pressured on a dropback. Over that stretch, he ranked second in that ultra-specific stat – behind Patrick Mahomes and ahead of Jalen Hurts/Drew Brees. Since then, however, his 6.0 YPA in such spots ranks behind Gardner Minshew (benched yesterday) and Kenny Pickett (as many career touchdown passes as interceptions).
Of course, a veteran like Carr is plenty capable of adjusting on the fly and burning Kansas City tonight. But without recent evidence of it, the deck is stacked against him. Do-everything offensive weapon Taysom Hill has been ruled out, and while that’ll keep Carr on the field for 100% of New Orleans’ snaps, it subtracts one moving piece that the Chiefs have to concern themselves with.
Back to Shaheed and the efficiency thing – he’s been the one hurt most when Carr is sped up. Since the middle of last season, he owns a 73.3% catch rate when his QB is not pressured compared to a 30.8% rate otherwise (he’s played 11 games over that stretch and his 66 pressured routes have netted just four receptions).
CHRIS JONES STRIP SACK. CHIEFS RECOVER.
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We are talking about impossibly small sample sizes, but the Saints offensive line was deemed a concern entering the season. Through two weeks, it appeared to be a strength, but was that more matchup-related than anything?
Pressure Rate Allowed When Blitzed
- Weeks 1-2: 22.2%
- Weeks 3-4: 47.6%
See where I’m going with this? This projects to be a lower-possession game, something the 43-point total implies and is backed up by both offenses ranking among the 10 slowest in the league — a game state that will require efficiency for Shaheed’s impact to be felt.
With L’Jarius Sneed no longer on this Chiefs defense, opponents are preferring to attack them on the short pass (their opponent aDOT is down 13.5%) and that’s just not where Shaheed makes his money.
He’s an elite downfield threat – or he was early on. He’s gone consecutive games without a catch on a pass that traveled 20-plus yards in the air and Kansas City happens to own the seventh-lowest completion percentage on such attempts.
Stepping in front of the burner is scary because we are always a single play from holding a losing ticket. That said, once.
One time.
That is how often Shaheed has cleared 41 receiving yards in a game in which he failed to haul in a pass of 20-plus air yards.
Pick: Under 48.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)