It’s the last game of the season for many season-long players, and all eyes will be focused on the Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers. Whether you’re in or out of the playoffs, there’s still some fantasy goodness to be had in tonight’s marquee matchup. Let’s dive in!
Winning NFL Week 17 DFS Lineup
- Captain: Jahmyr Gibbs
- FLEX: Jauan Jennings
- FLEX: Sam LaPorta
- FLEX: Craig Reynolds
- FLEX: Deebo Samuel Sr.
- FLEX: Jameson Williams
DFS Strategy: The Only Way Is Through… Jahmyr Gibbs
All season, we’ve seen the Lions’ dynamic duo of ball-carriers Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (aka Sonic and Knuckles) absolutely dominate the stat columns. Unfortunately, the hard-hitting Montgomery is out for the season. That leaves the smaller, faster Gibbs to take over as a true bell cow on one of the best offenses (if not the best offense) in football.
Dan Campbell made it clear that the team trusts Gibbs to handle the Montgomery role last week, even after a few failures on the doorstep. When all was said and done, Detroit’s RB1 was trusted with 27 touches. We’re thinking we might see more of that over the next 1.5 months as this team looks to get to New Orleans.
Gibbs now has six top-10 finishes this season and will be a first-round pick next season. He could prove to be the piece that is most common on championship rosters this season when it comes to season-long fantasy football. We’re expecting the same type of roster usage in tonight’s single-game DFS slate.
A New, Dependable Floor for Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams is coming off his third top-10 finish of the season (Weeks 1, 11, and 16) and, more importantly, his sixth straight game with 10+ expected PPR points.
That second number is the one that has our interest. We know that Williams is plenty capable of making the chunk plays and exceeding expectations, but the built-in value of his recent targets helps elevate his floor to a place where I’m comfortable Flexing him weekly.
Now, we think there’s enough versatility in his profile to land him as a top-35 WR — especially tonight in a game where SF will need to put up points to keep up with Detroit.
Jared Goff is as efficient as anyone in the league, and with designs a part of the plan for Williams, we’re going to take our chances. The big-play potential is still very much there (just ask Chicago’s secondary), but with a single-digit aDOT in three of his past five, I think there’s more well-roundedness than this burner gets credit for.
The Resurrection of Sam LaPorta
At this point, Sam LaPorta isn’t going to cash in on our preseason hype, but he is trending in a strong direction and at the exact right time.
- Weeks 1-9: 3 targets per game (23rd among TEs)
- Weeks 10-16: 7 targets per game (seventh among TEs)
The volume is finally there, and it really hasn’t come at the cost of his teammates. LaPorta has reached double figures in PPR points in four straight games. With the Lions’ defense banged up at every level, I’m confident that this offense is going to be pushed consistently.
He may not have a clear path to being the top producer at the position right now, but he deserves to be locked in without a second thought.
Head Jauan-Cho
In San Francisco, it’s been apparent that the Niners trust George Kittle the most in the passing game this season. So, this play is more based on potential game script more than any recent stats.
With Deebo Samuel Sr. seeming to be back in the good graces of Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers, we’ve seen the spread of targets start to thin for Jennings, as compared to the beginning of the season where he logged two games with double-digit receptions.
Tonight, however, we see plenty of opportunities going Jennings’ direction. Detroit is extremely banged up in the secondary (and just about everywhere else), and it’s going to be a tough ask for that defense to stay with all of San Francisco’s weapons.
With no shortage of scoring tonight (over under for this game at 50.5 points on DraftKings sportsbook), all it takes is one for JJ to pay off.