The Minnesota Vikings have the highest win percentage of any non-division winner since 2000, according to TruMedia. Of the teams not to win their division, five of them still won the Super Bowl. If the Vikings want to be the sixth, Sam Darnold will have to win his first, second, third, and fourth playoff starts.
The Los Angeles Rams made a trade for Matthew Stafford that resulted in them becoming Super Bowl champions. Three years later, the Rams have another shot at greatness as Stafford reaches the age of decline. But first, they must defeat the Vikings for a second time this season.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Vikings -2.5 - Moneyline
Vikings (-135); Rams (+114) - Over/Under
47.5 total points - Game Time
8:00 p.m ET - Location
State Farm Stadium (Arizona)
Vikings vs. Rams Preview and Prediction
The Vikings rank 15th in EPA (expected points added), 12th in success rate, second in explosive passing rate, and 18th in explosive rushing rate. Outside of the absurd number of big plays, the Vikings’ offense has been quite average. On scripted plays, the Vikings rank sixth in EPA but defenses have adjusted well to Darnold and the Vikings this season.
Despite a ranking of 27th in defensive EPA, the Rams have been vastly improving in large part due to having such young playmakers on their defense. Five of 11 starters are in their first or second year in the league. Bill Barnwell adds to this analysis by calculating the average age of NFL teams weighted by the number of snaps from each player. This allows us to get a look at which teams are performing with veteran help versus young teams.
Final snap-weighted age data for the 2024 regular season
Five oldest teams: Vikings, Dolphins, Falcons, Browns, 49ers
Five youngest teams: Packers, Giants, Raiders, Cardinals, Chargers pic.twitter.com/5azJUwKbPT
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 8, 2025
The Rams have an average age on defense of 26.3 years old, good for 26th-oldest (seventh-youngest). Since Week 13, the Rams’ defense ranks 14th in EPA, showcasing their clear improvement.
Unfortunately, the explosive passing has still been a clear weakness of this team. They rank 28th in passes of 20 or more yards allowed per game. But as aforementioned, Minnesota ranks second offensively in this stat — not only this, but they also attempt them at a very high rate.
Darnold is tied for sixth in most passing attempts of 20 or more yards this season. On those passes, he ranks second in completion percentage (51.5%), first in yards (1,192), first in yards per attempt (17.5), tied for second in touchdowns (10), and tied for third in big-time throws (22).
Another aspect of the Los Angeles defense that is quite alarming is the field position battle. Opposing offenses face the third-shortest distance. Part of this could be that they rank fourth in number of kickoffs that result in a touchback (82.6%), which is less advantageous with the new rules.
On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles is ranked 13th in EPA and 10th in success rate. They don’t create explosive plays well, ranking 17th and 29th in passing and rushing, respectively. This offense ranks 13th in terms of standard deviation in EPA, meaning they are inconsistent. Four of their games this season have been bottom-25th-percentile performances, while six games are above an 80th-percentile performance.
The Rams will need to have success on early downs against Minnesota, given how their offense drops off on late downs. The Rams rank fifth in EPA on first and second down versus 22nd on third and fourth down. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank fifth on third and fourth down defensively.
The Rams also struggle with pressure, ranking 23rd in EPA when under pressure. It’s important to note that Minnesota will definitely have to tone down their blitz rate, as Stafford and the Rams are ninth in EPA against the blitz. Although Minnesota leads the league in blitz rate, they are fourth in pressure generated with just four pass rushers.
Situationally, Minnesota has a huge edge in play-action, ranking fourth in EPA while the Rams’ defense ranks 31st against it. If the Vikings can run the ball efficiently, this will add another aspect to their offense that would be difficult for the Rams to keep up with.
In their first matchup, the Rams were successful on first and second down. Despite only averaging 3.3 yards per rush, they went 20/27 for over 200 yards and two touchdowns. Surprisingly, the Rams went 5/7 for 81 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception on third and fourth down.
They also went 6/8 for 47 yards and a touchdown and that one interception under pressure as well. All the things Minnesota did to take advantage of the Rams’ weaknesses were somehow not weaknesses in this game — that is exactly why the Rams are so difficult to predict. At any given moment, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will connect with Stafford in a way that cannot be stopped.
When this happens, there are very few offenses in football that can keep up. Take the game against the Buffalo Bills as the perfect example. Despite Josh Allen putting up a signature performance and literally willing his team to victory, it wasn’t enough.
Darnold has never started a playoff game before. If defensive coordinator Chris Shula can find ways to get Jared Verse and Kobie Turner in advantageous positions, Darnold could struggle. Among 29 quarterbacks with over 100 passes under pressure, Darnold ranks 19th in EPA, 18th in sack rate, 20th in average depth of target, 16th in completion percentage, and 14th in interceptions.
I find the average depth of target (ADOT) the most indicative; as it shows that getting pressure on Darnold significantly speeds up his intrinsic timer and prevents him from hitting those explosive pass plays that are a key part of the offense.
I don’t think the Rams are capable of putting together as good of an offensive performance as last time. It took an outrageously efficient offensive performance on third downs for the Rams to pull off the upset. With that being said, we can turn to the Minnesota offensive line to understand why I am not completely sold.
In the first matchup, Minnesota did a poor job handling the Rams’ pass rush. They allowed a pressure on 44.8% of Darnold’s dropbacks — he went down three times. This was before the injury to Christian Darrisaw. With Darrisaw out, Cam Robinson has become the new left tackle.
Among 189 offensive tackles with over 200 pass-blocking snaps, Robinson ranks 180th in pressure rate per pass blocking snap at 8.7%.
Despite Brian O’Neill — the right tackle — being an absolute stalwart, ranking 23rd at 3.1%, Verse lines up on the left side of the offensive line on just over 58% of his snaps.
Given how close I believe both teams to be in terms of talent, I am going to suggest parlaying the two picks for added value. Taking the Rams +2.5 at -110 and the Vikings -135 puts you at +230.
My pick: Rams +2.5 (-110); Vikings (-135)