The Minnesota Vikings won a Week 5 game they should have lost. The Carolina Panthers lost a Week 5 game they should have won. Usually, those things even out. Will they when the Vikings battle vs. the Panthers in Week 6?
The Vikings (2-3) narrowly avoided a four-game losing streak courtesy of a 54-yard Greg Joseph field goal at the gun. The Panthers (3-2) somehow lost to the Eagles despite controlling the vast majority of the afternoon. That game also swung on a special-teams play. Joseph Charlton had a punt blocked deep in Panthers territory with four minutes left in the game.
Sunday is the 16th time Carolina and Minnesota have met, with the Vikings winning nine of the previous 15. Minnesota is in search of its first road victory of the year. The Panthers are 3-1 at home.
Minnesota Vikings offense vs. Carolina Panthers defense
Vikings offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak had a great start to Week 5, with 183 yards, 3 scores, and 10 first downs in Minnesota’s first three possessions. But in the Vikings’ final nine drives, they punted three times, turned the ball over twice, missed a field goal, and didn’t get into the red zone. It was the second-straight week an opponent held the Vikings under 20 points.
They’ll face a stout Panthers defense that took a hard-luck loss in Week 5. The Eagles gained just 273 yards, had 15 first downs, went 4 of 13 on third down, and allowed 182 passing yards on 41 dropbacks.
Carolina has given up 57 points in the past two weeks after surrendering just 30 in the first three. But their fundamentals remain strong. The Panthers have allowed the second-fewest yards per game (255.8) and per play (4.8) through five games.
Kirk Cousins vs. Panthers defense
Kirk Cousins will probably never be a top-tier quarterback, but he’s actually pretty decent value for the Vikings. He’s earning $21 million this year and counts $31 million against the cap. His $33 million APY is the eighth-highest in the league, but that’s only because nearly half of the NFL’s starters are on their rookie contracts.
Through five weeks, Cousins is eighth in passing (279.2 yards per game), 17th in QBR (54.2), and 12th in passer rating (103.7). Put it together, he’s a second-tier quarterback — which is pretty much how he’s being compensated.
Cousins will be the second-best quarterback the Panthers have faced in 2021. The best was Dak Prescott, who torched Carolina’s secondary for 4 touchdowns on just 22 passes. But the other four — Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston, Davis Mills, and Jared Goff — combined for 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions against Carolina. The Panthers rank first against the pass (161.6) and second in yards per pass (5.5).
Advantage: Panthers
Vikings weapons vs. Panthers defensive backs
Justin Jefferson has a sore ankle that kept him out of practice Wednesday and Thursday, but he’ll play Sunday. The dynamic receiver, who has 33 catches for 462 yards and 3 touchdowns this year, has yet to miss a game in the NFL.
Adam Thielen has also been banged up lately but had already been a player in decline. As Adam Levitan of Establish The Run points out, Thielen’s averaging nearly a yard less per route run in 2021 than he did in 2017. The Vikings as a team have the NFL’s seventh-worst yards-per-catch average.
Running back Dalvin Cook (ankle) is off the injury report for the first time in a while, meaning he will play Sunday. Cook has appeared in just 39% of the Vikings’ offensive snaps this year.
The Panthers are still one more game away from the debut of Stephon Gilmore, who is expected to come off the PUP list in Week 7. Jaycee Horn (broken foot) still has a chance to return, but not until late in the season. This is all a long way of saying the Panthers’ defensive backfield probably won’t be any worse the rest of the season than it is now. And it’s still really good!
The Panthers allow the fewest first downs per game (15) and are No. 1 in third-down defense (25.5%). Cornerback A.J. Bouye has been excellent in his return from suspension, holding opponents to 1.3 yards per target. Quarterbacks have completed just 55.6% of their passes against Donte Jackson.
Advantage: Push
Vikings offensive line vs. Panthers defensive front
Some teams struggle to find the right mix and chemistry on the offensive line. Injuries wreck otherwise sound plans. Then there are the Vikings, who have started the same five players on the line all five games — Rashod Hill (left tackle), Ezra Cleveland (left guard), Garrett Bradbury (center), Oli Udoh (right guard), and Brian O’Neill (right tackle).
This quintet together has the NFL’s 10th-best sack rate (4.7%), and the Vikings have respectable run metrics (including a 4.3 yards-per-carry average). They’ve done the latter despite getting just 51 carries out of Cook, who is finally feeling right after injuring his ankle in Week 2.
The Panthers have to be thrilled with the ROI they’ve gotten on Haason Reddick. Carolina signed the free-agent edge rusher to a one-year, $6 million contract in the offseason. He has repaid them with 6.5 sacks in his first five games — second to only Cleveland’s Myles Garrett in the entire NFL.
But it’s not a one-man show. Brian Burns continues to disrupt, and the front seven is responsible for 16 of the Panthers’ 21 tackles for loss. Carolina’s sack rate (11.0%) is second in football. However, linebacker Shaq Thompson (foot) will not play.
Advantage: Panthers
Carolina Panthers offense vs. Minnesota Vikings defense
The Panthers are coming off their worst offensive game of the season. The Eagles held Carolina to 267 yards, 18 points, and 17 first downs. They’ll have to figure out how to get back on track without running back Christian McCaffrey, who will miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury. The Panthers have gained on average 67 fewer yards in games in which McCaffrey has not appeared, but their rushing efficiency (4.1 yards per carry) is actually better.
Meanwhile, the Vikings are finding their groove on defense. In the last three weeks, they’ve surrendered a total of 48 points and just 5.3 yards per play. Minnesota’s third-down defense has been particularly good not just over that stretch (35.1%) but all season long.
On the year, the Vikings have the NFL’s fourth-best third-down D (31.7%). That helps make up for struggles in the red zone (72.7%, 24th) and yards-per-carry allowed (4.7). Overall, Minnesota ranks 17th in total defense (368.8 yards per game) and 19th in efficiency (5.8).
Sam Darnold vs. Vikings defense
No player has been negatively impacted more by McCaffrey’s absence than Sam Darnold. Darnold’s completion percentage, yards per pass, and passer rating are all down significantly in the games McCaffrey has missed.
Week 5 against the Eagles was by far Darnold’s worst game as a Panther (21-of-37, 177 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions). His QBR in that game was a ghastly 17.2. Speaking of ESPN’s QB metric, the magic formula doesn’t think too highly of Darnold on the year, despite his more-than-respectable stats. Darnold is 22nd on the year in that category (51.3). The Panthers’ interception rate (3.3%) is better than just five teams.
Darnold will face a Vikings pass defense that’s hot. Minnesota’s last two opposition quarterbacks — Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff — combined to complete 52.9% of their passes with 5.3 yards per attempt and a passer rating of 62. The Vikings on the year have allowed an average of 238.8 passing yards and 1.2 passing touchdowns per game — fifth-best in football — and their opponents’ passer rating (95.6) ranks 13th in football. Their yards-per-pass average (7.3) isn’t great, but it also isn’t awful.
Advantage: Vikings
Panthers weapons vs. Vikings defensive backs
Here’s what is strange about the Panthers’ struggles without McCaffrey: his backup, Chuba Hubbard, hasn’t been a liability. Yes, he is not the player McCaffrey is, particularly in the passing game (Hubbard has just 78 receiving yards and no touchdowns on 12 catches in 2021). But he has been more than adequate, rushing for 158 yards on 37 carries the last two weeks.
DJ Moore is an emerging star. He ranks ninth in football with 88 receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, Robby Anderson is the ultimate boom-or-bust player. Anderson is averaging 14.9 yards per reception, but his catch rate (41.4%) is 197th out of 203 qualifying players.
Only 10 teams had fewer interceptions through five weeks than the Vikings (3). Safety Xavier Woods leads all Vikings defensive backs with 3 pass breakups. So this is a convoluted way of saying Minnesota lacks playmakers on the back end.
Patrick Peterson has been OK, but not great, in his first year with the Vikings. He’s allowed 64.3% of throws to his coverage area to be completed for 7.5 yards per target and a 99.0 opponents’ passer rating. But that’s way better than Bashaud Breeland, who has been roasted for 4 touchdowns. Additionally, safety Harrison Smith has allowed 16.1 yards per completion.
Advantage: Push
Panthers offensive line vs. Vikings defensive front
Starting left tackle Cameron Erving should be back from a neck injury that kept him out of Week 5. Erving’s return should restore a bit of equilibrium to the Panthers’ O-line. It’ll move Taylor Moton back to right tackle and send Brady Christensen back to the bench.
Still, it’s not as if Erving was an All-Pro before he got hurt. He was decidedly mediocre. Moton, meanwhile, has been excellent. The next sack he allows in 2021 will be the first. The Panthers rank 22nd in sacks per pass attempt (7.7%) and 28th in yards per carry (3.7).
That line will be tested by a very dangerous front. The Vikings have the league’s third-best sack rate (10.4%) despite blitzing on just 20.4% of opponents’ dropbacks. Defensive end Danielle Hunter is a menace. He leads the Vikings in sacks (6), tackles for loss (6), and quarterback hits. He and Everson Griffen (4 sacks, 3 tackles for loss) provide enough heat that co-defensive coordinators Andre Patterson and Adam Zimmer rarely have to bring another defender.
Advantage: Vikings
Betting line and game prediction
The Panthers have the better record and are playing at home. They have a much better per-game point differential (+5.6 to +0.8) and per-game yard differential (107.6 to 14.0). And unlike the Vikings, they have a positive yards-per-play differential (they gain 5.3 yards per play and allow 4.8). Yet, they’re still getting 2.5 points at home. There’s value here.
Vikings vs. Panthers Prediction: Panthers 24, Vikings 20