The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the surprise packages of the 2024 NFL season, greatly outperforming expectations to enter Week 18 at 14-2. They had a chance to go on the road to avenge one of their two defeats this season and, in doing so, clinch the NFC North and the NFC’s No. 1 Seed.
But that wasn’t the case as they lost, 31-9. What does that mean for their playoff positioning? Let’s dive in.
What Playoff Seed is the Minnesota Vikings?
Things were quite cut and dry for the Vikings in terms of their playoff scenarios in Week 18. Unless the Vikings and the Detroit Lions tie, there was no need for tiebreakers because this was a winner-takes-all game, with the losing team having to play on Wild Card Weekend and go on the road.
Since the Vikings lost to the Lions, they will be the No. 5 seed. With a loss, the Vikings are 14-3, with the Lions finishing at 15-2. A tie would have made things a little more interesting because the two teams would have been tied at 14-2-1. However, due to the Week 7 win for the Lions over the Vikings, Detroit would have owned the head-to-head tiebreaker 1-0-1. Therefore, Minnesota still would be the No. 5 seed.
As the No. 5 seed, the Vikings will face the Los Angeles Rams on the road. Our metrics have the Vikings as slight road favorites. They are currently projected to beat the Rams 56% of the time, suggesting that it will be a tightly contested game.
A win on Wild Card Weekend would most likely leave the Vikings on the road again. The only way the Vikings can host a game in the Divisional Round as the No. 5 seed would be if they, the Green Bay Packers, and the Washington Commanders all won on the road in Wild Card Weekend. Then, the Vikings would host the Packers in the second round.
If the Vikings wanted to win the division and clinch the NFC’s No. 1 seed, they needed to win against the Lions. That would have put the Vikings at 15-2 and left the Lions at 14-3, which would give the Vikings a second NFC North crown in three years.
Winning the division would have meant that Minnesota got a week off on Wild Card Weekend. They would have been able to sit back and watch while the other six NFC teams fought it out. Minnesota would have then returned to action in the Divisional Round against the lowest remaining seed.
If the Vikings were to clinch the No. 1 seed in Week 18 and then win on Divisional Round weekend, they would have been assured of hosting the NFC Championship Game.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.