Although the Minnesota Vikings lost any chance they had to win the NFC North by falling to the Detroit Lions last week, they still have a shot at the playoffs Wild Card berth. But the Vikings are on the outside looking in, so they’ll need help from other teams to get into the dance.
What needs to happen for Minnesota in Week 17?
Vikings Playoff Scenarios | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After Week 17, the Vikings are the No. 10 seed in the NFC.
Saturday Night Football Update
Cowboys (11-5) defeated Lions (11-5)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
Bears (7-9) defeated Falcons (7-9)
Rams (9-7) defeated Giants (5-11)
Saints (8-8) defeated Buccaneers (8-8)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Sunday Night Football Update
Packers (8-8) defeated Vikings (7-9)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the Vikings entering Week 17. Be sure to head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 17?
The Vikings have a 7-8 record heading into Week 17, placing them eighth in the NFC standings ahead of Sunday’s action.
The loser of the NFC East — likely the Dallas Cowboys but potentially the Philadelphia Eagles — has already secured the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoff structure. Minnesota is one game behind the No. 6 seed Los Angeles Rams and No. 7 seed Seattle Seahawks, both of whom are 8-7.
The Vikings are one of four clubs — joining the Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, and New Orleans Saints — with a 7-8 mark. Minnesota already beat those teams in 2023, giving Kevin O’Connell’s squad valuable playoff tiebreakers that could come into play at the season’s end.
While the Vikings have a path to the playoffs, it’s become murky in recent weeks. Pro Football Network’s simulations give Minnesota just a one-in-three chance of making the postseason.
What needs to happen for the Vikings to punch its ticket? First and foremost, Minnesota needs to win out. With so many teams in the mix for the sixth and seventh seeds, nine wins will likely be necessary.
If the Vikings can defeat the Packers in Week 17 and the Lions in Week 18, they will only need a single loss by either the Rams or the Seahawks in order to make the playoffs. A conference record tiebreaker would give Minnesota a postseason berth in either scenario.
MORE: Minnesota Vikings Depth Chart
The Rams will complete the 2023 campaign with games against the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks will close with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals.
Meanwhile, the Vikings should be rooting for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to clinch their second consecutive NFC South title, which they could do this Sunday. If the Buccaneers win their division, they’ll remove themselves from Wild Card race, which would benefit Minnesota because Tampa Bay defeated them in the season opener.
A Bucs’ NFC South crown would keep the Saints and Falcons in the Wild Card conversation. The Vikings already beat both clubs, giving them head-to-head tiebreakers over New Orleans and Atlanta. As long as Minnesota matches records with the Saints and Falcons down the stretch, it will hold the upper hand in ties with both teams.
Meanwhile, the Vikings could be eliminated as early as this Sunday. Minnesota’s season is over if any of the following scenarios play out this weekend:
- MIN loss + LAR win/tie + SEA win/tie
- MIN loss + LAR win/tie + ATL win + TB tie
- MIN loss + SEA win/tie + ATL win + TB tie
- MIN tie + SEA win + LAR win
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!